Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[KqWIN]

I still need to wrap my head around the new lottery odds. When we talk about bottoming out, I probably still have some lingering emotional reactions from the older odds. It was such a dramatic change, but if that's been fully processed. Before the changes, I think bottoming was really important for getting #1. Nowadays, the incentives for bottoming out is different. It's more about your floor vs your ceiling....but even then, the EV draft position is very tightly packed.

For example, the difference between #5 and #1 in the lottery is about 9% to draft in the top 3 and 3.5% to draft in the top spot. Don't get me wrong, you still want those extra percentage points, but it's a MUCH smaller gap than before. That would have been 35% and 16.2% previously. The incentive to be at the very bottom has really diminished.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Yeah I definitely want a team that's a contender. Understand if folks aren't all in on that. I just think the bar to get to that 5th seed the next year or two is REALLY high. Aiming for that spot and hitting the play in has some long term consequences.

Lots of teams have tanked, bottomed out, or just plain been bad and drafted high for a few years and it worked well. OKC Minnesota Philly Cleveland Orlando... SA back in the day too. Lots of teams have had mid results too... some teams have sucked in perpetuity and can't seem to figure it out even though they have drafted high.

I just think if management's goal was to have a perennial 5th seed.... well they should have kept Don and Rudy together as that will likely be better than whatever they manufacture with Lauri and star trade X.

I don't need to be 5th next year, just build towards that sooner than later. OKC is good because they traded for a mvp level guy. Minny did bottom and draft a guy who looks to be amazing for a long time. Cleveland bottomed out and built an okay team then traded for the guy leading them, we'll see what happens when he leaves. Orlando isn't a contender or that close but it's a fun team. SA is simply the luckiest team ever. The process was rough for fans and doubtful to work out in Philly.

5th seed type teams can improve and get better with smart FO drafting well, making good fringe trades, and FA signings. I just think it's a better path than sucking for 5 years or more. I don't think the FO has any intention of going that way after 2 years of sucking I can't imagine they trade away their best guys and try to bottom out for 2 years then slowly rise up. That's already 4 years sucking and there is no way they go from the worst to a contender in 1 or 2 seasons. 6+ years of being bottom 8.

And both of us are already die hard fans. Imagine the average fan. You'll lose so much interest in the team. If the Jazz had sucked when I was a kid for that long there is no way I would have become a fan.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't need to be 5th next year, just build towards that sooner than later. OKC is good because they traded for a mvp level guy. Minny did bottom and draft a guy who looks to be amazing for a long time. Cleveland bottomed out and built an okay team then traded for the guy leading them, we'll see what happens when he leaves. Orlando isn't a contender or that close but it's a fun team. SA is simply the luckiest team ever. The process was rough for fans and doubtful to work out in Philly.

5th seed type teams can improve and get better with smart FO drafting well, making good fringe trades, and FA signings. I just think it's a better path than sucking for 5 years or more. I don't think the FO has any intention of going that way after 2 years of sucking I can't imagine they trade away their best guys and try to bottom out for 2 years then slowly rise up. That's already 4 years sucking and there is no way they go from the worst to a contender in 1 or 2 seasons. 6+ years of being bottom 8.

And both of us are already die hard fans. Imagine the average fan. You'll lose so much interest in the team. If the Jazz had sucked when I was a kid for that long there is no way I would have become a fan.

I wouldn’t make decisions based on the last two years. Those are sunk costs. Being mid for two years before being good isn’t much more appealing than being bad for a couple years and having a chance to be special in 4-5 years. By year 2-3 you should be mid at least.


Also i live in a small market that had the longest playoff drought in the nba. They survived and have plenty of good young fans.

I’m cool with whatever they decide to do. But if they wanted to be a solid playoff team that might hit it rich on a late first rounder someday… the better way to do that was to keep one of Rudy or Don. So I’m not sure why it seems the spoken FO goal is to parlay the picks for a star so we can be a play in team.