SLC Dunk - 2024 NBA Draft player profile: Dalton Knecht

[Adam Bushman]

Dalton Knecht reacts to his Tennessee squad blazing through the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament | Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The Utah Jazz had three bites at the draft apple last year. They’ll have another three chances this coming draft. The team found position size at the respective positions and is likely to follow that same trend come June.

Though this draft class doesn’t promise the high ceiling talent franchises would like to see, there’s a dearth of rotational talent and no one better fits the mold than Dalton Knecht.

Dalton Knecht is currently mocked throughout by trusted industry sources as high as #4 (The Ringer) and as low as #11 (The Athletic, Sports Illustrated). His average ranking is #9.

Let’s dig in and make our own conclusion.

Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Dalton Knecht posterizes Michigan State forward Malik Hall

Stats and Measurables​

Dalton Knecht is a 23 year old senior from the University of Tennessee. He stands at 6’6” with an unreported wingspan. He weighs 213 lbs, putting his BMI at 24.6.

Dalton largely projects as a combo guard on offense, though in some matchups he could be thought of as a wing thanks to his athleticism and strength. Defensively, Dalton would be best against opposing guards, especially those a touch slower of foot.

Over 36 games of action, all of which came as a starter for the Vols, Knecht averaged a per game stat line of 21.7 pts, 4.9 rbs, 1.8 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.6 blk, and 1.7 tov on 58% true shooting in 30.6 minutes.

While that stat line appears impressive, there’s some issues. A) the measures aren’t volume adjusted, B) they show no comparison to others, and C) they are all results focused. We’ll get into better numbers later.

Situation​

As a high schooler, Dalton was clearly talented. At Prairie View High School he scored 21 a game as a senior. Per MaxPreps, he pushed into the top 18 recruits out of Colorado. Here’s some highlights from his stint with the Colorado Anarchy thereafter.

Despite the general success, it didn’t translate to the serious recruitment one would expect of an eventual lottery pick. Per a story from earlier this year at The Athletic by CJ Moore, Knecht received no Division I offers out of high school. He also was not present on ESPN’s top 100 recruits in 2019.

So he began a career at Northeastern Junior College as a Freshman and Sophomore. He was a very proficient player in limited minutes which contributed to his next transfer.

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, he leveraged additional eligibility, playing two seasons for Northern Colorado before this final season at Tennessee. Each season saw more opportunity and responsibility.

From some of this tape, it’s clear Dalton can shoot and isn’t shy about attacking the rim. More on that later. You also get the sense he’s a complimentary figure, not always on ball but still comfortable therewith. It’s tough to assess his defensive abilities; we’ll work to sus that out coming up.

Knecht was top-2 for Tennessee in most volume stats: minutes, games, FGA, 3PA, FTA, and wasn’t far down the list in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He was a heavily relied upon contributor.

Strengths​

Dalton has some pretty obvious skills that should translate well to the NBA and make him successful for a good while. First, he’s also a very confident and efficient shooter. Take a look at the highlight video below; most all those 40 points came via jump shots.

Looking at his career stats to date we see a consistent, high volume approach (see the below table). Dalton checks the volume and efficiency boxes both from the 3P and FT line.

Data source from MaxPreps, ncaaj.org, and Bball Reference
Dalton Knecht career shooting figures

It’s also pretty clear, even back to some of the early tape from a half decade ago, that Dalton is an aggressive driver. His handle is decent and he is willing to change speed mid drive. He seemed to have good touch and confidence. At Tennessee, he made 68% of his shots at the rim, putting him in the top quartile (per CBB Analytics).

The tape against Auburn (below) demonstrates Dalton’s above average athleticism, strength, and aggressiveness heading to the rim.

Weaknesses​

Dalton isn’t an unwilling passer, but it doesn’t appear that’s a conscious part of his game. He averaged 3.4 assists per 36 mins in high school, 3.7 at Northeastern, 1.6 at Northern Colorado, and 2.1 at Tennessee.

This translates to the theory Dalton sees himself as primarily a self-creator or play finisher. Doesn’t mean he hasn’t the talent; plenty of plays this season show he makes good reads. However, deploying him in a distributor role would be pretty new for him and would come with its fair share of headaches.

Unknowns​

Dalton’s defense is curious. Coming to Tennessee that was an area he specifically called out as a development emphasis. In film I’ve seen generally poor positioning. His judge of distance, angles, and “playing safety” aren’t great.

However, he leverages his length and athleticism fantastically. He’s quite skilled at blocking in recovery or as a weakside helper. Also, he hasn’t leveraged his strength on defense as he has on offense; simply unlocking that potential would go a long way.

Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images
Dalton Knecht works to defend a tough Purdue team in the NCAA Tournament

His proficiency on defense is likely to be a product of his future NBA environment. Were he to land in Minnesota or Orlando, he’d be a real value-add on the defensive end. The same may not be true with Utah or Charlotte.

Some may point out Dalton’s age as a weakness. At 23 with 5 years of ball post-high school, some may assert, “of course he’s balling out; everyone is way younger than him”. This may be a justified criticism that Dalton lack All-Star/All-NBA potential, which I largely agree with. However, we’re seeing seasoned players who know the game come in and immediately contribute as rotation players (see Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the Miami Heat).

Additionally, it’s unclear just how much he contributes to winning when the shot isn’t falling. Take his worst game against Mississippi State in the SEC tournament. He goes 4-17 with 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 3 turnovers, so that’s not great. But, he got to the line 4 times which is pretty good and appeared pretty engaged despite a blowout.

Here’s an interview following the loss:

Personality​

To get a feel for Dalton’s personality, consider watching this podcast where he talks about his interests, his story/origin, and reasons for coming to Tennessee. Some highlights include growing up in Colorado, his affinity for collecting shoes, tastes in entertainment, favorite player being Kevin Durant, and more.

Conclusion​

Dalton Knecht is a well-rounded player who has the potential to contribute positively from day 1. By all accounts, he possesses solid character and has demonstrated exceptional work ethic and self-confidence.

Were things to go right in his NBA career, I would project a Tyler Herro or Bogdan Bogdanovic type career. In an average scenario, I envision a career like Donte Divincenzo or Grayson Allen. Were things to go wrong, Malik Beasley or Doug McDermott seem appropriate.

The differentiating skills for Dalton will be passing and defense. As we’ve discussed, landing in the right spots will help or hurt his development in these areas.

Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images
Dalton Knecht uses his size against the Texas Longhorns

Ultimately with every player, it’s not “if” you would or should draft them, but “when”. The idea is to intersect risk and reward to generate the highest value proposition. Given the Jazz have 3 picks and multiple avenues for changing draft position, we can analyze a lot of scenarios.

Utah should absolutely consider Knecht with, what is anticipated to be the #8 pick (NBA draft lottery takes place May 12th). Given the estimated volatility of this class, there may be some surprise wings who fall that would be more attractive a selection. However, in a vacuum, this would be a great pick.

Utah won’t have another pick until late first round. However, the Jazz have a lot of ammo to move up should Dalton slip into the late teens or early 20’s. That would be excellent value if the price and situation are favorable.

Where would you take Dalton Knecht in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft?

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