Following potential 2015 draftees

[NCJazz]

If I am Dekker, I would come out. When is stock going to be higher? And it is hard to turndown the 4 mil or so guaranteed. Coupled with the injury risk, I can't see any financial reason to stay. Maybe he likes being the big man on campus.

With Kaminsky gone I believe he literally would be the tallest player on WI. Dont think they will have anyone over 6'9"

 

[Beer]

Not all people are driven by greed...

Greed? Really?

 

[fishonjazz]

It's like gambling $10,000 to try and win $100. You might win, but it doesn't mean it's not a stupid bet.

Well put

 

[karl malone]

I am meh on Russell. I think he is either a role player or an inefficient stats/pts guy

I wouldn't give up much, at all, to move up for him.

Curious as to why you say this & don't understand the role player comment (unless you mean a complimentary starter rather than 1 of the team's star players), although I do understand the inefficient stats/pts guy as he seemed to force a lot of shots/attempt to create opportunities that weren't there (somewhat understandably, due to the lack of talent around him). Personally, I see his worst-case scenario as being a taller, slightly better version of Monta Eliis, without character issues. I think he has a very good chance at becoming a special offensive player.

I think this team is a 20+ ppg, starting caliber player away from being ready to legitimately compete (not to say that Russell will be that from day 1, but this team's weakness is clearly offense & imo Russell has the most potential on that side of the ball in this draft & thru the draft is this team's best opportunity to acquire that type of player).

The only other players who I see as having that type of potential (20+ ppg) is Okafor, Hezonja, & maybe Mudiay & Porzingis. Russell would be my 1st target followed by Hezonja. Obviously, you have to set a limit to how much you're willing to trade for him but personally, I would have no problem with trading #10/11, Burke, (1 of) Burks/Hood, & the OKC 1st. Maybe it's too much, but I don't see us being able to draft a starting caliber player @ #10/11 & other than Hood, don't see any starting caliber assets being traded away (maybe Burks, but I still see his ideal role as a 6th man, especially on this team), in order to acquire (imo) the ideal 5th starter alongside our core.

The whole (that we're trading away) may be greater than the sum of the part (that we're receiving), but you have to take into consideration the overall affect of the trade. Hood could be a good enough starter for us to be competitive but I think we lack a go-to-scorer, which Russell may become & Hood likely will not. As a small market team, we are going to have to force our way into the conversation by acquiring as many potential all-stars thru the draft, similar to OKC (although we've had to take the quantity over quality version of this strategy). If we are ever going to win a championship, we will need to either draft a generational talent, or put a starting 5 on the floor consisting entirely of all-stars/fringe all-stars, who compliment each other's games well & help hide one another's deficiencies (along with a deep enough bench, which although any trade would lessen, can be rebuilt via FA- which is likely not an option when it comes to finding our 5th starter & go-to-scorer).

To me, the question isn't whether or not we should attempt to move up for him, but instead if the cost of moving up for him vs acquiring him outweighs the cost of moving up for Hezonja vs acquiring Hezonja. We need an elite scorer if we're ever going to win a title & Russell (followed by Hezonja) seems like the best bet to become that & the most realistic option for us to acquire.

 

[The Midnight]

Ford's Updated Big Board post the NCAA tournament:

1. Towns
2. Okafor
3. Mudiay
4. Russell
5. Porzingis
6. Winslow
7. WCS
8. Hezonja
9. Turner
10. Looney
11. Johnson
12. Oubre
13. Kaminsky
14. Poeltl

Top 8 seems like they are set in stone now as they are the exact same group when compared to DX, with placings slightly different. 9-14 are also more or less the same as well (Except Looney).

If we're picking around #12 it looks like we'll have to take a flyer on someone with lower floor & potentially higher ceiling (Oubre, Looney, Turner), or safer picks but lower ceilings (Kaminsky, Poeltl). It would be interesting to see which strategy DL turns to this time around.

Some interesting write-ups:

Looney: Kevin Pelton and I broke down Looney's production-versus-potential question. Needless to say, there's a general split among NBA scouts about where he should be drafted. The potential crowd has him in the Nos. 5-to-10 range. The production crowd has him in the Nos. 10-to-20 range. Luckily for Looney, there are more ambitious GMs and scouts in the potential group than the production group, and I think his draft range is currently somewhere between Nos. 7 and 14.

Johnson: Johnson's tournament was solid, just like his season. He clearly has an NBA body, shot the ball better this season than anyone could've hoped, and when he dials in defensively, he looks to be a strong two-way player in the pros. But NBA scouts think Winslow is a better athlete and has an even better motor. They think both Hezonja and Kansas' Kelly Oubre will be better shooters long term. Johnson is stuck somewhere in between: the guy who does just about everything well but lacks that one elite skill. Still, I think there's almost no way he falls out of the lottery. He could go as high as No. 6, but I think the range is more likely Nos. 8 to 14.

Oubre: It will be interesting to see if Oubre can keep his stock in the lottery. Scouts have been crazy high on him (before the season began), rock bottom on him (after a very slow start), high on him again (after he moved into KU's starting lineup) and lukewarm the last month of the season. His length, shooting touch and defensive abilities are all very attractive, however, and you can make the case he has the highest upside of any wing in the draft. But he's going to need some terrific workouts against Winslow and Johnson, and that might be tough given how physical both players are. Oubre's in the 10-to-15 range right now.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ford's Updated Big Board post the NCAA tournament:

1. Towns
2. Okafor
3. Mudiay
4. Russell
5. Porzingis
6. Winslow
7. WCS
8. Hezonja
9. Turner
10. Looney
11. Johnson
12. Oubre
13. Kaminsky
14. Poeltl

Top 8 seems like they are set in stone now as they are the exact same group when compared to DX, with placings slightly different. 9-14 are also more or less the same as well (Except Looney).

If we're picking around #12 it looks like we'll have to take a flyer on someone with lower floor & potentially higher ceiling (Oubre, Looney, Turner), or safer picks but lower ceilings (Kaminsky, Poeltl). It would be interesting to see which strategy DL turns to this time around.

Some interesting write-ups:

That is pretty interesting. Looney will go in the teens... Ford had him way too high earlier. Surprise she's still kind if lukewarm on Johnson. I'd love if he slipped to us at 11 or 12.

 

[Beer]

Ford's Updated Big Board post the NCAA tournament:

1. Towns
2. Okafor
3. Mudiay
4. Russell
5. Porzingis
6. Winslow
7. WCS
8. Hezonja
9. Turner
10. Looney
11. Johnson
12. Oubre
13. Kaminsky
14. Poeltl

Top 8 seems like they are set in stone now as they are the exact same group when compared to DX, with placings slightly different. 9-14 are also more or less the same as well (Except Looney).

If we're picking around #12 it looks like we'll have to take a flyer on someone with lower floor & potentially higher ceiling (Oubre, Looney, Turner), or safer picks but lower ceilings (Kaminsky, Poeltl). It would be interesting to see which strategy DL turns to this time around.

Some interesting write-ups:

Turner at 9? Pass.

 

[The Midnight]

That is pretty interesting. Looney will go in the teens... Ford had him way too high earlier. Surprise she's still kind if lukewarm on Johnson. I'd love if he slipped to us at 11 or 12.

To Ford's credit he really stuck to his guns on Johnson. Remember when DX had Johnson around #5 and Ford had him around #12 just last month and everyone here was saying Ford had an agenda to push, has no integrity, etc, etc?


Now Ford has Johnson #11 and DX has dropped Johnson down to #9.

 

[8]

Would suck to end up with Poeltl

#100RAPclub

 

[The Midnight]

Turner at 9? Pass.

Ford said GMs and scouts are intrigued by his shooting & shot blocking but really concern about his awkward running and his long term health. His stock will depend on what the team doctors say about his health problems long term when they have him in for workouts.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ford said GMs and scouts are intrigued by his shooting & shot blocking but really concern about his awkward running and his long term health. His stock will depend on what the team doctors say about his health problems long term when they have him in for workouts.

He's tough to evaluate... was he used wrong or is he not good. He was killing it from 3 earlier in the year and I was intrigued so I watched him. He has a good stroke, but that run is just awful. It sounds weird, but it reminded me a bit of how Oden used to look out on the court... like things just aren't lined up right. I wonder if he has a leg that is longer than another or something. It just doesn't make sense.

I think he is a project but has upside... I'd rather not be the one who drafts him, but I get it if we did.

 

[fishonjazz]

Is the poster named karl malone an alt of babe that he uses strictly for jazz related talk?

 

[spycam1]

My realistic-ish hope right now is for either Johnson or Kaminsky to fall us.

 

[sgjazzfan]

My realistic-ish hope right now is for either Johnson or Kaminsky to fall us.

My realistic hope is that the Jazz somehow end up picking 10th. Puts them in much better position to move up for Hezonja/Winslow or hope Johnson falls. Not really that excited about any of Kaminsky/Turner/Looney/Lyles. I'd rather pick Oubre over them. Maybe this is because I expect Jazz to bring over Tomic. If they can't get Tomic to come over, and they can sign Carrol DMC, then I could get excited about Kaminsky or WCS, but not really the others.

 

[davidbenoit]

My realistic-ish hope right now is for either Johnson or Kaminsky to fall us.

Two very safe picks. The Jazz might feel they are good enough where they don't need to hit a home run in the draft this time around.

Jazz are in such a unique spot developmentally that literally everything is in play.

But the most common theme is the Jazz need shooting to spread the floor for their two star post players. If Jazz stay at 12 I see them going for Oubre, and if they move to 10 I see them trading up a few spots for Hezonja.

 

[spycam1]

My realistic hope is that the Jazz somehow end up picking 10th. Puts them in much better position to move up for Hezonja/Winslow or hope Johnson falls. Not really that excited about any of Kaminsky/Turner/Looney/Lyles. I'd rather pick Oubre over them. Maybe this is because I expect Jazz to bring over Tomic. If they can't get Tomic to come over, and they can sign Carrol DMC, then I could get excited about Kaminsky or WCS, but not really the others.

Two very safe picks. The Jazz might feel they are good enough where they don't need to hit a home run in the draft this time around.

Jazz are in such a unique spot developmentally that literally everything is in play.

But the most common theme is the Jazz need shooting to spread the floor for their two star post players. If Jazz stay at 12 I see them going for Oubre, and if they move to 10 I see them trading up a few spots for Hezonja.

Basically everyone seems to be in agreement on this. It's just a matter of what we would have to give up. If packaging our pick with a future one (like the GS or OKC pick) could land us Mario, we'll be set. If we have to give up more than that, I don't know if DL would pull the trigger.

 

[The Midnight]

My realistic hope is that the Jazz somehow end up picking 10th. Puts them in much better position to move up for Hezonja/Winslow or hope Johnson falls. Not really that excited about any of Kaminsky/Turner/Looney/Lyles. I'd rather pick Oubre over them. Maybe this is because I expect Jazz to bring over Tomic. If they can't get Tomic to come over, and they can sign Carrol DMC, then I could get excited about Kaminsky or WCS, but not really the others.

I can tell you right now I am much more excited about the possibility of getting DMC + Kaminsky, than Tomic + Johnson.


Much better 3 point shooting from that first group.

 

[sgjazzfan]

I can tell you right now I am much more excited about the possibility of getting DMC + Kaminsky, than Tomic + Johnson.


Much better 3 point shooting from that first group.

What about Tomic and Hezonja or Winslow? Trade the 2016 first and OKC pick with this one. Jazz have so much young talent, I don't see the need for either of those with 2 first rounders in 2017 and so many second round picks. And there is no guarantee we get Carrol or a like player. Draft is before FA if I recall correctly. They may know if they can get Tomic, but might not know about any possible FA.

 

[The Midnight]

What about Tomic and Hezonja or Winslow? Trade the 2016 first and OKC pick with this one. Jazz have so much young talent, I don't see the need for either of those with 2 first rounders in 2017 and so many second round picks. And there is no guarantee we get Carrol or a like player. Draft is before FA if I recall correctly. They may know if they can get Tomic, but might not know about any possible FA.

With the emergence of Hood I am a bit more skeptical about getting Stanley Johnson. I mean is he going to start over Hood in the future? I feel like our team needs more offensive punch at the moment and Hood is giving us that in the starting lineup. Then you bring in Kaminsky who's an offensive player first and foremost and has range out to the 3pt line - imagine all the 3pt shots Booker is passing up ATM, Kaminsky is prime to get a good % of those in and can be a real threat out there creating space for Burks to operate in that 2nd unit.


Of course I would love to get Hezonja or Winslow, but as it stands I'm liking the idea of Kaminsky as our long term 3rd big and have been for a while now.

 

[sgjazzfan]

With the emergence of Hood I am a bit more skeptical about getting Stanley Johnson. I mean is he going to start over Hood in the future? I feel like our team needs more offensive punch at the moment and Hood is giving us that in the starting lineup. Then you bring in Kaminsky who's an offensive player first and foremost and has range out to the 3pt line - imagine all the 3pt shots Booker is passing up ATM, Kaminsky is prime to get a good % of those in and can be a real threat out there creating space for Burks to operate in that 2nd unit.


Of course I would love to get Hezonja or Winslow, but as it stands I'm liking the idea of Kaminsky as our long term 3rd big and have been for a while now.

I worry about the defense in the second unit with Burke, Burks, Booker and possibly Tomic. Johnson would be a great defensive SF for the second unit, who could possibly start alongside Hayward and could play some PF with small ball. I'd much rather have Tomic and Johnson than Kaminsky only as there is no guarantee we get anyone in FA.