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Following potential 2015 draftees

Kaminsky's situation and development is so unique though, I don't really think it's comparable to anything though.
 
Cy said:
He does have a point though. It is hard to find players who struggled their first 2 years and exploded in their JR/SR who are succesful in the NBA (it's hard to find them period). The ones you do find are complete flops.

Small sample size, so probably doesn't mean anything though.
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Not really that rare... Locke noted two players in one tweet that basically fit the profile last night. Ezeli and Draymond Green. Frank didn't play as much his first two years... he was an underclassmen and had more experienced guys ahead of him... Bo Ryan is kinda old school. He definitely got better, but he wasn't terrible. There have certainly been some senior busts but its not like its needle in a hay stack rare to find good contributors.

It is hard to nail every pick outside of the top 5... there are many ways to fail. Its a red flag but not a death knell.
 
Cy said:
Kaminsky's situation and development is so unique though, I don't really think it's comparable to anything though.
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This is all I've been really calling for... these guys are different. Evaluate the player and his game, not solely his age.
 
Cy said:
Even those guys where getting good minutes and putting up stats their SO years though. They weren't flat out dominating, but they were doing pretty good.
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True. The thing with Kaminsky is he wasn't getting time in his second year, but he wasn't playing bad. For example, his PER was 25.3 that year, his per40 numbers were 16/7/3ast/2bl/2stl. He had the best ORtg and second best DRtg on the team that year, as well as the best WS/40 number and the best BPM number. He was playing behind Jared Berggren who was a senior. I'm not a fan of the per40 when you are getting 10mpg, because there usually is a reason why you are getting only 10mpg, but his raw stats in the time he played weren't bad by any stretch. Is it possible it is simply a case of seniority within the team and him not getting much playing time because of him not being a highly sought out recruit, i.e. his coach not realizing how good he actually was at the time and giving the playing time to the senior?
 
Carbon13 said:
RHJ is the other one Locke likes. I also wonder if the FO likes him. Just looked up his college shooting #s and was discouraged when i saw Kawhi, Iggy, and MKG were all better shooters than him. RHJs shooting numbers are very comparable to Aminus. Would yall be okay with drafting an aminu type?
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No. Not with the current roster and skillset that this team has.
 
stitches said:
True. The thing with Kaminsky is he wasn't getting time in his second year, but he wasn't playing bad. For example, his PER was 25.3 that year, his per40 numbers were 16/7/3ast/2bl/2stl. He had the best ORtg and second best DRtg on the team that year, as well as the best WS/40 number and the best BPM number. He was playing behind Jared Berggren who was a senior. I'm not a fan of the per40 when you are getting 10mpg, because there usually is a reason why you are getting only 10mpg, but his raw stats in the time he played weren't bad by any stretch. Is it possible it is simply a case of seniority within the team and him not getting much playing time because of him not being a highly sought out recruit, i.e. his coach not realizing how good he actually was at the time and giving the playing time to the senior?
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It seems this is the case to me... he led the team in offensive rating and win shares per 40 minutes as a sophomore. Limited minutes, but he may have already been the best player on the team. The small sample size is confirmed in the coming years. These situations are unique and you have to evaluate everything rather than saying "he's old and so that never works"
 
NBADRAFT.NET has us taking Dekker at 12 while Johnson is taken at 11 and Turner at 13. For the 2nd round they have us taking another Trey Burke and a SG.
 
kabenac said:
NBADRAFT.NET has us taking Dekker at 12 while Johnson is taken at 11 and Turner at 13. For the 2nd round they have us taking another Trey Burke and a SG.
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If we draft Dekker with Turner, Kaminsky and Oubre still on the board I'd be shocked...
 
Do you guys ever wonder if the jazz feel limited to the popular mock drafts? Like at 12 its pretty unlikely the bpa is any of the guys weve talked about but is probably somebody who will end up a steal much lower, like Jimmy Butler. Do you think our team has the cajones to draft that guy at 12?
 
stitches said:
If we draft Dekker with Turner, Kaminsky and Oubre still on the board I'd be shocked...
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Yeah just cuz he looks like Keith Van Horn and people have compared him to Hayward doesn't mean he's our guy... silly darftnet.
 
No, I don't think the Jazz FO actually conspire with Locke to give false information. But it stands to reason that, since Locke needs to publish SOMETHING, he probably asks insiders questions. But the FO knows Locke is the media and whatever they say to him is likely given to the public. So anyone the FO likes they probably give Locke the impression they're kinda lukewarm on. If Locke asks about someone the FO is not high on then maybe FO talks about that players good attributes. And then Locke has info to publish. For those who play fantasy sports you probably do the same thing with the guys in your league. And if you don't, you probably should.
 
Can Matt Stainbrook from Xavier be a NBA center?

Dude was a pretty good passer and was extremely tough. His measurements are good enough to be a center.
 
stitches said:
Our FO is one of the FOs that leak the least information when it comes to plans for the draft. They seem to keep everything close to the vest and I don't see a case where they actually are giving him any sort of legitimate information about our plans to air out to the world. In fact, I think it's more likely(still not very likely) they are giving him smokescreens to propagate, than actual information. Our FO has absolutely no use of actual information about our plans leaking. It makes their job harder if anybody outside of the organization knows what we are planning. I simply don't see them leaking info they don't want leaked. Also, keep in mind that they probably don't even have any plans right now. They haven't even started seriously discussing who they prefer in the draft. Right now they seem to be in information accumulation mode, then when all information is in, they will start constructing the board and debating if they like Lyles better than Kaminsky or Portis, etc.

With that said, he probably has more access than most to workouts and info other people don't have, and some players might jump up to him(Rudy?). But yah, in general, I don't believe Locke is projecting any real plans out. I think he's careless with his statements sometimes and careless with the way he judges prospects he hasn't watched, but I guess that's part of his job - he has to talk about something at the end of the day...
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Agree with this. They have to give out some info, and if they're giving good info to the media, that would make them amateurish. It's not so much smoke screening to intentionally try to mislead, but avoiding tipping their hand.
 
BENTLEY said:
None of us know anything, but I'm just saying whatever Locke says I'm leery of. Plus, he bugs me.
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I'm officially bugged by him too... Again he rails on about Kaminsky being risky based on guys not succeeding in their first two years of college. Gives the same two examples (udoh and Wesley Johnson) and ignores hosts of other examples.

Also didn't even look at Frank's birthday to find out if he was an 18 year old freshman or a 19 year old freshman (he was 18 btw)

Since 2009 guys that were not great until senior or junior years or that didn't show NBA promise until 20 years old (or ever) that are now decent NBA players many of which who have out performed their draft position:

Draymond Green
Festus Ezeli
Kelly Olynyk
Jimmy Butler
Tyler Zeller
Mason Plumlee (was always an NBA prospect but statistically didn't show until he was "beating up on children")
Markieff Morris
Nikola Vucevic
John Henson (similar to Plumlee)
Demarre Carroll
Taj Gibson (he was a 20 year old freshmen so not sure how this compares)
Iman Shumpert
Larry Sanders
Chandler Parsons (never really dominant ever)

There are others that outperformed draft position. I agree with Layne Vashro that this actually might be the new draft inefficiency and I hope that other NBA folks still see it the way Locke does.

The narrative is so tired... just wish he'd actually look at the player.
 
If we get Trey Lyes I will be pissed. I would like anyone else at twelve. Even Kaminski which would be like going right back after a Kanteresk player a year after move him for nothing.
 
Would you guys consider trading down? Like trading 12th and a 2nder for Boston's 16th and 28th pick? The Jazz can still get great solid players at 16 like Kaminsky, Portis, Dekker, Hollis-Jefferson, Looney, Grant and Payne. As for 28th, I don't know. Maybe someone that impresses during the workouts.
 
If you look at years past, it's pretty rare that anyone can predict who the Jazz will end up with. The move for Burke was a surprise. Getting Exum was a surprise. Getting Hood at 22 was a surprise. Drafting Hayward was something only a few people predicted.

As for Locke, I think he's trying to keep people interested in the draft and doing his part to keep that conversation happening with his audience. However, he doesn't seem to be obsessing much about any of the players. He's done two of his draft analyses by looking at a few games. He doesn't seem all that into it, tbh. The one thing he's doing is countering the argument that Kaminsky is perfect for the Jazz. He may be doing that in earnest or as a smokescreen. Who knows.

If Locke does know how the FO is leaning, he won't say it publicly and he'll likely avoid the subject. The fact that nothing at all is being said about Dekker, Turner or Portis leads me to believe that they're actually under consideration.
 
If I had to guess, I would think the Jazz really like Hezonja, Porzingis and Johnson, and they hope one of them slips or that they can move up a few spots to snag one of them. Johnson is the most likely candidate to slip to 12.

I think they probably like Turner, Oubre and Booker well enough, but aren't over-the-top excited about them. They are only incrementally better than guys available later in the draft.

That's just me guessing.
 
stormkoopacv03 said:
Would you guys consider trading down? Like trading 12th and a 2nder for Boston's 16th and 28th pick? The Jazz can still get great solid players at 16 like Kaminsky, Portis, Dekker, Hollis-Jefferson, Looney, Grant and Payne. As for 28th, I don't know. Maybe someone that impresses during the workouts.
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Depends on who is available at 28... there is a pretty steep drop off at around 23-24ish imo.
 
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