spycam1
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MCW was ROY (even if he's not that great) and Gordon has yet to even begin his career.
Following potential 2015 draftees
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Chargers Jazz Angels
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All hail for hezonja.
Handlogten's Heros
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I think we have an opportunity to get to 10 by taking on McBob and his contract and giving the 12. They have a salary crunch this year and now that wade wants his Kobe contract they will want to cut some salary for next year to open up more space then... I'd do it
orangello
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Per minute is a terrible comparison.
orangello
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I'd gladly take McBob to move to 10.
Doublea
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Trade Burke to the Lakers for the 28th pick (or 29th)?
I was just reading Sam Vecenie's twitter feed... Seems like he's got a mini man crush on Vezenkov:
Some of the sub-tweet exchanges are fun too... It's pretty much how I feel about him. He's so exciting, efficient and smooth shooting the ball, but damn is it scary on the defensive end. Aris is trying to hide him in some zone defense, but it's hard.
lolol
Some of the sub-tweet exchanges are fun too... It's pretty much how I feel about him. He's so exciting, efficient and smooth shooting the ball, but damn is it scary on the defensive end. Aris is trying to hide him in some zone defense, but it's hard.
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fishonjazz
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The Thriller
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I think the Jazz will be making a playoff push next year. I don't think they're going to be adding many more rookies.
orangello
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I really like that suggestion. Although, there was talk yesterday that the Lakers are targeting Mudiay with their #2 pick.
orangello
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Um, did you watch last season? Some of the rookies that played for the Jazz looked much better than Trey.
Not to mention you could you that pick on a draft and stash.
orangello
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So lately it is being "reported" that Minny prefers Okafor at 1 and the Lakers are targeting Mudiay at 2. If Towns and Russell are available at 3 then is there anything you'd be willing to package to Philly to try and get one of those two?
Also, who are you targeting if you can move up?
Also, who are you targeting if you can move up?
Warning: long post with data –quit reading now if you’re not interested in the Locke/Kaminsky discussion.
I’ll take a stab at the Locke/Kaminsky question with some (semi-systematic, if also quick and dirty) research.
Locke’s argument has been that college players (or more precisely 18/19 and 19/20-year olds) who don’t demonstrate some kind of excellence their first two years in college are very risky – that they tend to flame out in the NBA.
To go through the data as quickly as possible, I used the EFF rating in DX’s player profiles, as it seems to be the single number that gives at least some sense of the combination of quality and the amount of play (which Locke seemed to stress). I went through six years of drafts (2006-11) because I simply don’t have time to do more, and I think the patterns probably become clear enough with this sample size. I typically tried to go through about the first 35-40 or so players drafted in each of these years.
Kaminsky’s EFF rating was 2.8 and 5.4 respectively as an 18-year-old freshman and a 19-year-old sophomore. Locke is right to say that these are extremely low numbers for an NBA draft pick in Kaminsky’s range. They are quite rare.
It’s not unusual for draftees to have somewhat low 18/19-year-old EFF ratings (though they’re still the minority). But I decided to concentrate on the numbers as a 19/20-year old, the typical age for sophomores, since Locke was really stressing this yesterday. Indeed I found it was very rare for NBA draftees to have such low numbers in that season.
In fact, I found only one real good comparison--Jon Leuer--Wisconsin skilled big man--coincidentally (or not coincidentally) enough. Though Leuer was a bit higher earlier in his career and a bit lower later, his career trajectory tracked pretty closely to Kaminsky.
Is this a good or a bad sign for Kaminsky? Hard to say, but I’d lean toward good. He’s become a decent, though thoroughly replaceable semi-rotation player for a very good team. But having been drafted 40th, that career trajectory probably doesn’t hurt Kaminsky’s case.
Another Big Ten guy – Maurice Ager – had numbers very similar to Kaminsky in his first two years (though slightly higher). He and a few other players with similar numbers – Nolan Smith, Justin Harper, Morris Almond (ouch!) are all probably fairly classified as busts, even though they were picked between the low 20s-low 30s. Maybe these support Locke’s case, but none of those players’ last two years numbers were nearly as good as Frank’s.
In support of Kaminsky, we can turn to Joakim Noah, who had a 5.3 EFF rating as a 19/20-year-old freshman and yet has clearly lived up to his high draft position.
Al Thornton is a bit more uncertain. Drafted at #14, near Kaminsky’s projection, Thornton was more than a year older than Frank in his college progression. His freshman and sophomore EFFs of 3.1 and 9.3 are quite low. Thornton had some decent years for bad teams as a pro, but kind of faded away as his game never really progressed.
If we stretch the match with Kaminsky a bit (ie including for freshmen, rather than sophomores – but only those who were within about 6 months of Kaminsky’s sophomore age; or getting a little further away from Kaminsky’s low sophomore EFF score), we can add the following names, roughly from closer to less close match with Kaminsky:
Cole Aldrich
Jordan Hill
Randy Foye
James White
Epke Udoh
Jordan Hamilton
Norris Cole
Chandler Parsons
Jimmy Butler
Aaron Afflalo
Joe Alexander
Larry Sanders
Nick Young
Isaiah Thomas
Sheldon Williams
Craig Brackins
Good or bad signs for Kaminsky overall? Hard to say, but any determination has to factor in draft position.
Overall, I’d say, as Stitches said earlier, it’s probably good to have a healthy respect for the argument that low production in the first two years is a warning factor. But I suspect (with Vashro) that it’s overplayed at times.
In reality, Kaminsky’s case is so unique – going from such low to such high production – that it’s really hard to know if past experience is any guide in this particular case. Maybe that by itself is even more risky than comparison with these quasi-similar cases I found.
But on the other hand, there’s an argument to be made that Kaminsky has shown an aptitude for improvement – one of the most important traits an NBA player can have. As Wes Matthews, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and many others have shown, it’s hard to know where the ceiling is for that.
EDIT PS: The comparisons Locke has been providing: Wesley Johnson, Jimmer Fredette, particularly, aren't very good comparisons. Johnson was pretty good as a freshman, Jimmer as a sophomore. They wouldn't make my cutoff for comparisons.
I’ll take a stab at the Locke/Kaminsky question with some (semi-systematic, if also quick and dirty) research.
Locke’s argument has been that college players (or more precisely 18/19 and 19/20-year olds) who don’t demonstrate some kind of excellence their first two years in college are very risky – that they tend to flame out in the NBA.
To go through the data as quickly as possible, I used the EFF rating in DX’s player profiles, as it seems to be the single number that gives at least some sense of the combination of quality and the amount of play (which Locke seemed to stress). I went through six years of drafts (2006-11) because I simply don’t have time to do more, and I think the patterns probably become clear enough with this sample size. I typically tried to go through about the first 35-40 or so players drafted in each of these years.
Kaminsky’s EFF rating was 2.8 and 5.4 respectively as an 18-year-old freshman and a 19-year-old sophomore. Locke is right to say that these are extremely low numbers for an NBA draft pick in Kaminsky’s range. They are quite rare.
It’s not unusual for draftees to have somewhat low 18/19-year-old EFF ratings (though they’re still the minority). But I decided to concentrate on the numbers as a 19/20-year old, the typical age for sophomores, since Locke was really stressing this yesterday. Indeed I found it was very rare for NBA draftees to have such low numbers in that season.
In fact, I found only one real good comparison--Jon Leuer--Wisconsin skilled big man--coincidentally (or not coincidentally) enough. Though Leuer was a bit higher earlier in his career and a bit lower later, his career trajectory tracked pretty closely to Kaminsky.
Is this a good or a bad sign for Kaminsky? Hard to say, but I’d lean toward good. He’s become a decent, though thoroughly replaceable semi-rotation player for a very good team. But having been drafted 40th, that career trajectory probably doesn’t hurt Kaminsky’s case.
Another Big Ten guy – Maurice Ager – had numbers very similar to Kaminsky in his first two years (though slightly higher). He and a few other players with similar numbers – Nolan Smith, Justin Harper, Morris Almond (ouch!) are all probably fairly classified as busts, even though they were picked between the low 20s-low 30s. Maybe these support Locke’s case, but none of those players’ last two years numbers were nearly as good as Frank’s.
In support of Kaminsky, we can turn to Joakim Noah, who had a 5.3 EFF rating as a 19/20-year-old freshman and yet has clearly lived up to his high draft position.
Al Thornton is a bit more uncertain. Drafted at #14, near Kaminsky’s projection, Thornton was more than a year older than Frank in his college progression. His freshman and sophomore EFFs of 3.1 and 9.3 are quite low. Thornton had some decent years for bad teams as a pro, but kind of faded away as his game never really progressed.
If we stretch the match with Kaminsky a bit (ie including for freshmen, rather than sophomores – but only those who were within about 6 months of Kaminsky’s sophomore age; or getting a little further away from Kaminsky’s low sophomore EFF score), we can add the following names, roughly from closer to less close match with Kaminsky:
Cole Aldrich
Jordan Hill
Randy Foye
James White
Epke Udoh
Jordan Hamilton
Norris Cole
Chandler Parsons
Jimmy Butler
Aaron Afflalo
Joe Alexander
Larry Sanders
Nick Young
Isaiah Thomas
Sheldon Williams
Craig Brackins
Good or bad signs for Kaminsky overall? Hard to say, but any determination has to factor in draft position.
Overall, I’d say, as Stitches said earlier, it’s probably good to have a healthy respect for the argument that low production in the first two years is a warning factor. But I suspect (with Vashro) that it’s overplayed at times.
In reality, Kaminsky’s case is so unique – going from such low to such high production – that it’s really hard to know if past experience is any guide in this particular case. Maybe that by itself is even more risky than comparison with these quasi-similar cases I found.
But on the other hand, there’s an argument to be made that Kaminsky has shown an aptitude for improvement – one of the most important traits an NBA player can have. As Wes Matthews, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and many others have shown, it’s hard to know where the ceiling is for that.
EDIT PS: The comparisons Locke has been providing: Wesley Johnson, Jimmer Fredette, particularly, aren't very good comparisons. Johnson was pretty good as a freshman, Jimmer as a sophomore. They wouldn't make my cutoff for comparisons.
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Short answer is, the data is mixed. I think the Locke has a point. I think Locke's critics have a point. But generally I think Locke is more scared about Kaminsky than he needs to be.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
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Easy answer. I'd grab Russ. We already have favs and Rudy. I'd give 12 plus the next years pick and GS pick Exum
Russ Burke
Burks. Hood
Hayward. Ingles
Favors. Booker
Gobert. Free agent
seattlejazzfan
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Kaminsky will do well in the NBA because he's good at playing basketball. Yes, I'm saying he'll be good despite the fact that some completely different player with a distinct skill set, different work ethic and different coaching, among other things, drafted a few years ago, sucked.
Yeah, I'm bold like that.
Yeah, I'm bold like that.
Handlogten's Heros
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Good leader, good dude, good skill set. I just want people to evaluate the player based on his game most posters on here do that. Locke has said one thing about franks game and the rest of his analysis is based on pelton and other statistical models... Which ironically rate frank as a good prospect.
I'm fine with someone saying he won't be able to defend etc... I can appreciate that but just to make blanket statements based on just one factor in draft analysis is dumb and it's how guys slip through the cracks.
I think I'm happy with just about anyone probably other than lyles. I still haven't figured out what he does well. I'm not a huge looney fan purely based on the limited games I watched him in... I could be talked into either if we moved down.
I'm growing to be a bigger fan of booker. He sounds like he'll be a hard, smart worker and has an NBA skill. He wouldn't play much but sounds like the type that would use the time wisely and get better.
karl malone
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I really think people (in general) are over thinking this Kaminsky thing. While history can help to shed some light on the future, every prospect is different & should be judged on his skill-set, character, & potential room for improvement (as well as fit) rather than the past success or failure of similar prospects. Kaminsky is what he is & that's an offensively skilled big man who, despite giving good effort, is limited defensively & imo is likely to become a championship caliber 3rd big with the potential to become a fringe starter (alongside the right player in the frontcourt). The question comes down to fit & draft philosophy. Personally, I view him as a near perfect fit as the 3rd big along with Favors & Gobert. My only concern is whether or not DL is willing to settle for a defensively limited rotation player with a lottery pick (I don't think he is). I have Kaminsky at #12, more so because of the other options, but expect DL to focus on the long-term & favor ceiling over floor. I don't think he will make a "safe" pick such as Kaminsky this high in the draft or before the team has solidified itself as a legitimate contender, but that doesn't mean he isn't still the right pick (not that I don't trust DL). I still think the priority should & will be to trade up (or down if we are unable to do so).
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