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2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

idiot said:
I'm no expert here, but it seems we talk our selves into this kind of sentiment every year around draft time. Maybe we need he who won't be named to give us a year-to-year draft depth comparison/prognostication?
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I mean I don't think there is a huge meaningful difference... but there is a difference between getting guys in this year vs. next. It's really a two year process... look at Jordan Poole and Keldon Johnson from a couple years ago... Poole was garbage as a rookie, Johnson was meh... both guys because solid rotation players in year 2. We need a guy to step into a rotation spot in a year... waiting to get the guy in the door because you think its a better trade chip or to save some money on a guaranteed salary is super short sighted.
 
Well, if we pick at No. 30, I suspect the pick to be Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, or Jared Butler.

If none of those guys is available, I think we definitely trade the pick.
 
I also think one of Donovan’s great characteristics is he really likes the young guys and seems to be willing to put his arm around guys and help them develop. Getting a solid prospect this year maybe allows him to form some attachment. It might be a minor thing but we want to work to connect him to the team in as many ways as possible. We’ve robbed the pipeline too often the last 5-6 years… I’m fine with trading the pick… but the return needs to be really good.
 
Ineptimusprime said:
Well, if we pick at No. 30, I suspect the pick to be Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, or Jared Butler.

If none of those guys is available, I think we definitely trade the pick.
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Add in Butler to that group… I think it’s an almost certainty 1 or 2 of those guys are available. Would have to be a serious run on guards in the 20s to take all of those guys off the board.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean I don't think there is a huge meaningful difference... but there is a difference between getting guys in this year vs. next. It's really a two year process... look at Jordan Poole and Keldon Johnson from a couple years ago... Poole was garbage as a rookie, Johnson was meh... both guys because solid rotation players in year 2. We need a guy to step into a rotation spot in a year... waiting to get the guy in the door because you think its a better trade chip or to save some money on a guaranteed salary is super short sighted.
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Yeah, I get this. It depends on the return and what you think of the respective draft classes. If you somehow snag a likely mid-first rounder next year (which I don't think is possible) for this year's 30, you'd certainly consider it if the Jazz are intending to go all in this year. If they know they're taking a step back this year, then it makes less sense to wait.
 
I don’t see moving picks to future years as a weak move. In fact, I bet there’s a market inefficiency there because the draft is fun and exciting. People are sure to overrate the picks during this time of year.

I get it, there will always be talent available, we would be lost if we didn’t draft Gobert at 27. But I hate when people act like the draft is a science while also rejecting the reality of these picks. If we keep the pick, there’s a better chance that he never becomes a rotation player than he does.

If there isn’t a guy you love, I don’t see the problem with moving it back. I bet everyone would have loved it if we punted back a year and had a fresh 1st instead of Doke. That’s the deal with the draft though. Hindsight 20/20 is King.
 
idiot said:
Yeah, I get this. It depends on the return and what you think of the respective draft classes. If you somehow snag a likely mid-first rounder next year (which I don't think is possible) for this year's 30, you'd certainly consider it if the Jazz are intending to go all in this year. If they know they're taking a step back this year, then it makes less sense to wait.
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I mean it would almost certainly be lotto protected. Say you trade #30 to Portland for their 2022 pick lotto protected. Nice deal if it lands at #17... if it lands at #23 honestly the lost year kinda sucks. If they miss the playoffs you ain't getting it for another year. No one is giving it unprotected for #30.

I trade #30 if I can get multiple seconds in the 30s or get off of Favs salary. I would consider it for one second in the 30s and like 3 future seconds depending on who is available. One thing to realize is the 1st round contract is guaranteed, but it can go out up to 4 years with team options. You have to use an exception or cap space to offer a second round pick a contract longer than 2 years which murders the value play there. Its why Hughes only has a two year deal. If he shows he's good we have to pay him next year.

I say we make the pick at #30 and then buy a pick in the 50s to save some space/tax. If there is a good JC or Bogey trade that saves money and creates flexibility go for it. Wait and see what happens in FA with Favs market... a team that misses on their guys may get more excited about Favs. If you can't do any of this then only use the taxpayer MLE for Batum or Gay and use minimum contracts on guys like Abdel Nader, Langston Galloway, Harkless, Brown, James Johnson... then keep the phone lines open.
 
KqWIN said:
I don’t see moving picks to future years as a weak move. In fact, I bet there’s a market inefficiency there because the draft is fun and exciting. People are sure to overrate the picks during this time of year.

I get it, there will always be talent available, we would be lost if we didn’t draft Gobert at 27. But I hate when people act like the draft is a science while also rejecting the reality of these picks. If we keep the pick, there’s a better chance that he never becomes a rotation player than he does.

If there isn’t a guy you love, I don’t see the problem with moving it back. I bet everyone would have loved it if we punted back a year and had a fresh 1st instead of Doke. That’s the deal with the draft though. Hindsight 20/20 is King.
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Oh I think its very much the opposite... on draft night picks after the 20s range are way cheaper than during the season. Getting a future first has some trade value at the deadline, but that pick is going to come with protections and has the chance that it won't deliver any value for 3-4 years.

You can comp it with Udoka but Minnesota is likely glad they picked McDaniels instead of having a mediocre future pick... same with Bane and Memphis. If we offer #30 for one of those guys is the team biting on that offer? Last year Boston swapped two future seconds and salary dumped Enes Kanter for #30 who became Desmond Bane... guessing they want that one back.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:


TRADE SZN
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Nice work by Memphis there… was wondering what they’d do with the cap space. One year rental of Bledsoe… NO should have snaked Allen out of there at least… they have a billion 2 guards.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Oh I think its very much the opposite... on draft night picks after the 20s range are way cheaper than during the season. Getting a future first has some trade value at the deadline, but that pick is going to come with protections and has the chance that it won't deliver any value for 3-4 years.

You can comp it with Udoka but Minnesota is likely glad they picked McDaniels instead of having a mediocre future pick... same with Bane and Memphis. If we offer #30 for one of those guys is the team biting on that offer? Last year Boston swapped two future seconds and salary dumped Enes Kanter for #30 who became Desmond Bane... guessing they want that one back.
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Maybe…I think fans definitely overrate draft picks as a whole, but fans don’t matter it’s FO’s and you’re right, teams do tend to trade out of the late first often.

I still don’t see it as a sign of weakness to not pick. Trading into the future keeps your asset, and if you’re correct that value is lowest during draft day than you’re increasing your value by rolling it over.
 
LoPo said:
I thought JV was good for Memphis. Interesting

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
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He was but he’s a floor raiser. Adams may find himself a bit.

The fit with JV and Zion is still wonky… NO is gonna do something dumb with that cap space.
 
Memphis is going to surprise some people next year - but it shouldn't be a surprise if you've been paying attention to them.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
He was but he’s a floor raiser. Adams may find himself a bit.

The fit with JV and Zion is still wonky… NO is gonna do something dumb with that cap space.
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NOLA makes out like bandits.

JV makes $14 this year and is expiring. Bledsoe and Adams combine to make $35 this year and $38 next year or $21 if Memphis waived Bledsoe.

All to move up seven spots to #10 and a protected 2022 pick?

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
 
KqWIN said:
Maybe…I think fans definitely overrate draft picks as a whole, but fans don’t matter it’s FO’s and you’re right, teams do tend to trade out of the late first often.

I still don’t see it as a sign of weakness to not pick. Trading into the future keeps your asset, and if you’re correct that value is lowest during draft day than you’re increasing your value by rolling it over.
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But you are also trading it on draft day... so not sure you are capturing any difference in value. I'd say projecting draft classes is basically impossible a couple years out and after the top 15. So any improvement in the asset would need to be captured by moving up at least 5-10 spots to capture the lost year or using it in a win now trade at the deadline. So you'd have to look at those types of trades to see if they panned out.

I agree there is some value loss by driving the car off the lot... there is a potential big gain though if the player shows they are decent in a limited window. think Kuzma his rookie year.

The reason I think its weak is the same reason I think DL was a coward for trading a ton of second rounders for cash and future second rounders because "there weren't players they liked at that point in the draft".... then your scouting isn't good enough. Every year there are guys after that pick that become good players. You defer the pick it is really about being indecisive and avoiding a black mark on your resume.
 
LoPo said:
NOLA makes out like bandits.

JV makes $14 this year and is expiring. Bledsoe and Adams combine to make $35 this year and $38 next year or $21 if Memphis waived Bledsoe.

All to move up seven spots to #10 and a protected 2022 pick?

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
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My bet is NOLA probably re-ups Ball and puts themselves into a position to maybe go get someone like Lowry/Derozan.
 
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