The Biden Administration and All Things Politics

[Al-O-Meter]

milk that costs $0.25 more than last year but still cheaper than 2014 and 2008 milk.

You need to let the whole milk thing go. It isn't about the milk. The issue is the destruction of the US currency and the economy. No, the dollar was not worth less in 2014 and 2008 than it is today. Inflation is the highest ever measured. Even with the BS reworked way of calculating it, inflation is over 9%. If they still used the same formula they used back in the Jimmy Carter years, we're over 20% inflation. We are NOT above 9% GDP. Adjusted for inflation, our economy is shrinking. We just came from an artificial shut-down. Our economy growth should be crazy, yet adjusted for inflation we are now in recession. We will be in actual recession the moment the Fed stops pumping money in, which they are going to have to do quickly to get inflation under control.

Dems aren't about to get shellacked because milk costs a few dimes more. It is because they cratered the economy. Thanks to Democrat control in the House, Senate, and Presidency, the United States is Wile E. Coyote standing in the air. That doesn't make me giddy to have the economists I listen to proven correct. We're all about to fall to the desert floor together.

 

[The Thriller]

You need to let the whole milk thing go. It isn't about the milk. The issue is the destruction of the US currency and the economy. No, the dollar was not worth less in 2014 and 2008 than it is today. Inflation is the highest ever measured. Even with the BS reworked way of calculating it, inflation is over 9%. If they still used the same formula they used back in the Jimmy Carter years, we're over 20% inflation. We are NOT above 9% GDP. Adjusted for inflation, our economy is shrinking. We just came from an artificial shut-down. Our economy growth should be crazy, yet adjusted for inflation we are now in recession. We will be in actual recession the moment the Fed stops pumping money in, which they are going to have to do quickly to get inflation under control.

Dems aren't about to get shellacked because milk costs a few dimes more. It is because they cratered the economy. Thanks to Democrat control in the House, Senate, and Presidency, the United States is Wile E. Coyote standing in the air. That doesn't make me giddy to have the economists I listen to proven correct. We're all about to fall to the desert floor together.

This is a really weird post. Not only are certain arguments wrong (real GDP is growing) and inflation numbers calculated either the older way (CPI) or newer way (COLI) indicate inflation rates way lower than what you stated.

Furthermore, exaggerating the economy as “being in recession” and Democrats “cratering the economy” is just laughable.

For those of you interested, the largest banks in America believe 2022 will be a very good financial year. JP Morgan in particular is pretty damn good. As I’ve stated before, my wife works in finance. Some of her clients are some of the most well known and wealthiest in Utah. The financial outlook in 2022 is bright. Yes, there are some global inflation and supply chain issues. But nothing like… “recessions” or “cratering the economy.”

It’s just laughable at this point to describe the economy in such silly terms.

2022 Outlook: Key takeaways

We’re optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022 — one that could stand in stark contrast against the sluggish economic growth of the 2010s.

www.chase.com

Wells Fargo Investment Institute Releases ‘2022 Outlook: Which way to the recovery?’

The U.S. is expected to serve as the global economy’s growth locomotive, as inflation likely remains above long-term trend for much of 2022 Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) today released “ 2022 Outlook: Which Way to the Recovery?” a report examining how markets have reached a crossroads...

newsroom.wf.com

Bank of America Market Strategist Optimistic Heading Into 2022

The optimism largely comes from the resiliency of the private sector.

www.425business.com

 

[The Thriller]

If inflation really is a concern for Americans, why would they empower the party that spent like drunken sailors during good times? Perhaps if they hadn’t spent so much, our financial system might’ve been better able to absorb the costs of the pandemic?

 

[Al-O-Meter]

the largest banks in America believe 2022 will be a very good financial year.

Let's see what they say after the FOMC statement tomorrow.

As I am writing this before the release of the FOMC statement, you could be correct. The Fed could stick to their original quantitative easing taper schedule and signal a single rate hike in the second half of next year. Or they could say "Al-O-Meter is right. Inflation is more persistent and the pressure greater than earlier projections indicated. The Fed is going to taper more aggressively and the market can expect multiple rate hikes starting in the first half of 2022."

 

[Gameface]

can anyone tell me what this chart means?

I honestly don't know.

What I do know is that inflation is happening in the U.S.. I have also heard that inflation is currently happening around the world. The U.S. dollar is not weakening, as a result of U.S. specific inflation, or U.S. fiscal policy, it isn't weakening at all in relation to other currencies.

I still honestly don't know how to really read the chart I posted. I would know how to read a chart that either had a huge J-curve or whatever the opposite is called, but that's not the chart I'm looking at.

But hey, let's wait for the FOMC **** tomorrow, because otherwise we can't tell if AI-O-Meter is and has been completely dishonest for months now. It's all riding on this FOMC thing that I have no idea what that is.

 

[The Thriller]

Let's see what they say after the FOMC statement tomorrow.

As I am writing this before the release of the FOMC statement, you could be correct. The Fed could stick to their original quantitative easing taper schedule and signal a single rate hike in the second half of next year. Or they could say "Al-O-Meter is right. Inflation is more persistent and the pressure greater than earlier projections indicated. The Fed is going to taper more aggressively and the market can expect multiple rate hikes starting in the first half of 2022."

So now your argument is, the feds might raise interest rates this year?

Um okay. Isn’t that obvious with the economy opening up anyway?

This post is a far cry from the post you made above (post 1,461) where you accused democrats of “cratering the economy”, giving us “Carter levels of inflation”, and the economy being in recession.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

So now your argument is, the feds might raise interest rates this year?

Um okay. Isn’t that obvious with the economy opening up anyway?

This post is a far cry from the post you made above (post 1,461) where you accused democrats of “cratering the economy”, giving us “Carter levels of inflation”, and the economy being in recession.

My argument is that we are not where the recent narrative said we were. I am predicting the Fed is going to say exactly that and rework the quantitative easing schedule to something more in line with reality (although not enough and they will speed the taper even more in future meetings). The Fed is preparing to run plays from the Paul Volcker playbook. It will put the economy into recession just like it did in 1981-1982 but there is no way around it if they are going to get inflation under control, and they have to get inflation under control.

As I said last night, I could be wrong. Let's see what the Fed says after their meeting.

 

[fishonjazz]

It's pretty crazy for sure - milk is $3 a gallon right now. The supply chain issues coupled with the labor issues and raw materials for production is having a massive effect on us.

We talk about the long-term Covid effects on people, but this is a stark example of how the long-term impacts of Covid hurt our economic health.

One thing's for sure, it's going to hurt the D's at the ballot box during mid-terms. It's not really their fault as inflation is not a winning issue, but that's what happens when you're the majority and things aren't falling like you want.

3 dollars a gallon is high? Seems like about what i was paying for milk about 12 years ago before i was married.


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[Gameface]

At $3/G that would put my yearly milk expenditure at around $2.

 

[fishonjazz]

I think you are going a bit light on the D's. COVID didn't hurt our economic health. The government's reaction to COVID hurt our economic health. This pandemic hit everywhere and no nation on Earth is seeing the level of inflation we are. Our government made decisions. Those decisions had consequences. The party in power should be held responsible at the ballot box for the consequences of the decisions they presided over. I only wish politicians were held to account more often. All too often it seems the only thing that matters is how good a politician is at raising funds to finance their next election.

Covid certainly hurt our economic health. Any sickness always does. I work in a production facility. When people call off work due to sickness some production lines are unable to run due to lack of operators. This happened even before covid but on a lesser scale.
With covid we had way way more people calling in sick (sometimes from a hospital bed) and more production lines being unable to run. Now imagine this same thing happening worldwide. Of course covid hurt the economy silly. Thats just common sense.


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[fishonjazz]

You need to let the whole milk thing go. It isn't about the milk. The issue is the destruction of the US currency and the economy. No, the dollar was not worth less in 2014 and 2008 than it is today. Inflation is the highest ever measured. Even with the BS reworked way of calculating it, inflation is over 9%. If they still used the same formula they used back in the Jimmy Carter years, we're over 20% inflation. We are NOT above 9% GDP. Adjusted for inflation, our economy is shrinking. We just came from an artificial shut-down. Our economy growth should be crazy, yet adjusted for inflation we are now in recession. We will be in actual recession the moment the Fed stops pumping money in, which they are going to have to do quickly to get inflation under control.

Dems aren't about to get shellacked because milk costs a few dimes more. It is because they cratered the economy. Thanks to Democrat control in the House, Senate, and Presidency, the United States is Wile E. Coyote standing in the air. That doesn't make me giddy to have the economists I listen to proven correct. We're all about to fall to the desert floor together.

Are the united states democrats also in charge of all the other countries who have had way more extreme lockdowns than us? Would you be super duper happy with a much higher death toll and all our hospitals shutdown due to being full with covid patients and tired stressed out healthcare workers just quitting?


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[Al-O-Meter]

Would you be super duper happy with a much higher death toll and all our hospitals shutdown due to being full with covid patients and tired stressed out healthcare workers just quitting?

The idea that if one doesn’t embrace corruption, pork and loose fiscal policy then they are some sort of ghoul that is giddy over the death of people is ugly. I roundly reject that entire premise.

There are different states who took different approaches to everything from vaccine distribution, to government mandates, to fiscal policy. Nations too took different approaches. We can see what helped and what some of the unintended consequences of action or inaction were. We don’t have to present cartoon visions of apocalypse when there are real world examples to learn from.

I do believe the American voter will rightly hold responsible the political party who had control of the House, Senate, and Presidency for what is some fairly obvious over reach resulting in negative economic consequences that will become more clear in the coming months. I think the Democrats will do their best to blame COVID but the American voter will blame the Democrats.

 

[Avery]

Feel like we've beat this to death, but my whole point with the milk is regardless if it was $3 ten years ago or ten days ago, that's not what resonates with voters. They only remember when things were the cheapest to them. And the ruling party gets the brunt of that inflated rate.

Anyone still talking about how the Jazz are looking like junk? Nah. We're on a seven game win streak and it's happy days. We trip up a couple times at home on this homestand and look like garbage and the sunshine pumpers will disappear and it will be doom and despair like it was when we lost to Indy and the Griz.

I remember when gas was a dollar a gallon in the late 90's and I remember when it fell to $1.something again a few years back, but people really feel it when it was >$4 and most would tell you it's still egregiously high in the mid $3 range. Like it or not, Biden will get blamed for that as many voters simply don't understand that gasoline prices are not controlled by the president. Otherwise, what president wouldn't make them super cheap to score easy political points?

 

[Gameface]

Feel like we've beat this to death, but my whole point with the milk is regardless if it was $3 ten years ago or ten days ago, that's not what resonates with voters. They only remember when things were the cheapest to them. And the ruling party gets the brunt of that inflated rate.

Anyone still talking about how the Jazz are looking like junk? Nah. We're on a seven game win streak and it's happy days. We trip up a couple times at home on this homestand and look like garbage and the sunshine pumpers will disappear and it will be doom and despair like it was when we lost to Indy and the Griz.

I remember when gas was a dollar a gallon in the late 90's and I remember when it fell to $1.something again a few years back, but people really feel it when it was >$4 and most would tell you it's still egregiously high in the mid $3 range. Like it or not, Biden will get blamed for that as many voters simply don't understand that gasoline prices are not controlled by the president. Otherwise, what president wouldn't make them super cheap to score easy political points?

Inflation is rhetoric that is easy to use and resonates with almost everyone. Totally agree with you.

 

[fishonjazz]

The idea that if one doesn’t embrace corruption, pork and loose fiscal policy then they are some sort of ghoul that is giddy over the death of people is ugly. I roundly reject that entire premise.

There are different states who took different approaches to everything from vaccine distribution, to government mandates, to fiscal policy. Nations too took different approaches. We can see what helped and what some of the unintended consequences of action or inaction were. We don’t have to present cartoon visions of apocalypse when there are real world examples to learn from.

I do believe the American voter will rightly hold responsible the political party who had control of the House, Senate, and Presidency for what is some fairly obvious over reach resulting in negative economic consequences that will become more clear in the coming months. I think the Democrats will do their best to blame COVID but the American voter will blame the Democrats.

Sounds like you are saying that worldwide there were different approaches tried. Almost as if nations and states or whatever across the world were doing their best to mitigate death and sickness. Stupid Democrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[The Thriller]

Seems hypocritical. Why don’t Repubs want to admit that they voted down these spending bills? I mean inflation and stuff, right? Why not brag about how your concerns over inflation meant that you voted against these spending bills?

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Sounds like you are saying that worldwide there were different approaches tried. Almost as if nations and states or whatever across the world were doing their best to mitigate death and sickness. Stupid Democrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Issuing $300 B.B.B.Billion dollars for wind farm subsidies? Restoring the SALT deduction to give rich donors in New York and California a tax cut? Universal Pre-K? Do you really believe that is all about doing their best to mitigate death and sickness from coronavirus? Democrats screamed "COVID" and used that excuse to run the printing presses so they could purchase everything they ever wanted. We are now seeing the consequences of that reckless "quantitative easing".

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Seems hypocritical. Why don’t Repubs want to admit that they voted down these spending bills? I mean inflation and stuff, right? Why not brag about how your concerns over inflation meant that you voted against these spending bills?

Name the Republican you speak of and I'll bet I can find a quote from that Republican bragging about how concerns over inflation led them to vote against these spending bills.

 

[fishonjazz]

Issuing $300 B.B.B.Billion dollars for wind farm subsidies? Restoring the SALT deduction to give rich donors in New York and California a tax cut? Universal Pre-K? Do you really believe that is all about doing their best to mitigate death and sickness from coronavirus? Democrats screamed "COVID" and used that excuse to run the printing presses so they could purchase everything they ever wanted. We are now seeing the consequences of that reckless "quantitative easing".

Certainly not everything the government has done has been covid related. That would be stupid to think lol. Just like when there were huge stimulus packages when trump was president there were some things in there not covid related and trumps administration had more than just covid to worry about. Tax cuts for the weathiest americans by trump when the economy was already strong was dumb. Lots of dumb things happen.

I was speaking more to shutdowns and whatnot and how covid measures effect the health of the economy in regards to when i said lots of different approaches were tried. If you want to talk about spending then we could talk about that as well but spending happens with or without covid in every administration. Did you know that our country has had a deficit prior to covid? Crazy right?

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Did you know that our country has had a deficit prior to covid? Crazy right?

I know the country had a deficit but nothing like it is now. If you want crazy, look at the right end of this chart. This is what I'm talking about. A ton of it was done on a party line vote, and it has consequences.