seattlejazzfan
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here's what i decided after Bane. draft position of need because BPA is a myth. nobody knows who the best player is, so who you think is the best guy in a position of need and hope for the best.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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Handlogten's Heros
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I can't wait for all these YOLO draft folks who are extreme risk takers to come back and complain about how we passed up on Mikal Bridges to take Kevin Knox in a couple years... assuming we take GG over clearly better prospects. Gotta take wild riskzzzzz doe!!!!
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You take guys that are good basketball players that have a reasonable path to playing time and you should have more success in the draft than many. Less about position and just upside cuz McDaniels was also a better pick that Udoka.
With GG he was an iso gunner in a unique body... but he wasn't particularly effective, did the other stuff horribly, and was immature multiple times during the season. If he is a completely different player than he showed then it might work out I guess.
Bawse Dawg
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Every single pick is a potential bust. And ~50% of them will be. That's what is hard about this, we talk about this top 8 or top 10 and at least four of those guys will not be good players, and it's impossible to know who.
We are in the midst of "Everyone is good" draft season. Meaning we talk floors, ceiling, potential, etc. But we never seriously acknowledge the fact that a lot of these will be journeyman/busts/complete non factor players. And really the most important thing is to not pick those dudes. At that point, it's a win.
Ochai for #10 is the perfect example. "Oh we could never get #10 for Ochai, a team will want the potential of a top 10 pick. That's fine, and I get it. But Ochai has already cleared the biggest rookie hurdle. He is a higher end outcome than the majority of #10 picks, but since he doesn't show 'star potential' It'd be hard to convince a team to trade a lotto pick for him (which is why we should just keep him instead of trading him for a another dice roll.)
I'm usually a fan of YOLO drafting, when you have limited resources(and no access to no brainer easily achievable high upside). Now that we have tons and tons of picks I'm a fan of YOLO trades... fill the gap in certainty with volume of picks. Instead of getting 4 low-chance of a hit YOLO picks, try to go get 1 high chance of high upside prospect.
Should Kobe Bufkin no longer be on anyone's radar because he was once a young freshman who put up bad stats?
Handlogten's Heros
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No... but we have the second year data... because one guy developed it does not mean another will. Should we take Emoni at #9?
The difference is we know that Bufkin made the extraordinary jump. Why wasn't he on anyone's radar last year?
Lol what… how is that even comparable? If GG came back for his sophomore season and put up better numbers I’m sure everyone’s opinion would change.
How is it comparable that two extremely young freshman struggled?
Yeah, that's the point. If by some chance you were a talented enough scout to identify Bufkin's talent as a Freshman and were able to convince him to enter the draft, and draft him, you'd have just gotten a lot of value vs drafting him when then stock is high. Playing the game like Simple Simon makes you draft Luke Kennard ahead of Donovan Mitchell because every stat says Kennard is the better scorer/shooter (and yes this is directed at you because you were one of those people).
Bufkin should have been drafted in the top-10 if you recognized his talent? Cause that’s what you are saying about GG.
If you thought others were onto him and he wouldnt be available at a later time you could get him, sure.
Obviously the difference between GG and Bufkin is that GG has/had a lot more eyeballs on him throughout his career, so it's not like you are unearthing a hidden gem, you are polishing one that has some dirt on it.
Bufkin is considered lottery'ish pick, not because he struggled as a young freshman. He's considered lottery'ish pick because he made a huge jump in his second year.
With that said, I still haven't watched GG, so I don't know if I will like him or not...
If the Jazz take GG and he busts I will gladly admit to being wrong. I won't flame management for taking the risk. If Anthony Black's shooting does develop he has high potential but I'm very hesitant he actually will get better shooting the ball. Maybe that's me being skeptical because Dante Exum never developed. I know that's not fair to Anthony Black but it is what it is.
I'm not a fan of Cason Wallace. I just think the point guard position is becoming less and less important in today's game. Especially PGs with less than ideal size. Playmaking is more important and point forwards can play make. It's much more important to have wings and forwards with size who are switchable on defense and can shoot and self create.
Think about this. Let's just pretend GG Jackson and Cason Wallace were both free agents. Who do you think would be more in demand? I think that tells you who teams value more in the draft.
One guy that has really stood out in the 2 camp scrimmages is Johni Broome. If you havent watched, you should look into him.
He's young for his class and was a dominant big man his first two years at Moorehead State. He transfers to Auburn his junior year and didnt lose much in terms of production and his advanced stats increased. He's mobile, physical, protects the rim and has nice touch. He's showing off an improved shooting stroke at the combines that gives him a bit more upside. Will turn 21 in July. Could be a 2nd round steal as a 10 year backup big type, similar to a Richaun Holmes.
He's young for his class and was a dominant big man his first two years at Moorehead State. He transfers to Auburn his junior year and didnt lose much in terms of production and his advanced stats increased. He's mobile, physical, protects the rim and has nice touch. He's showing off an improved shooting stroke at the combines that gives him a bit more upside. Will turn 21 in July. Could be a 2nd round steal as a 10 year backup big type, similar to a Richaun Holmes.
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Cason's size is good. Celtics have great switchable two-way wings and still thought it prudent to get Brogdon, White, to add to Smart... all of which are in Wallace's functional size wheelhouse. I'm not sure you have watched GG defend... I can tell you that Cason is very much the better and more switchable defender right now even though he is smaller. The assumption that GG is a going to be a good defender is purely based on his size as the on court evidence is not good. Plenty of dudes his size have sucked on defense.
Cason would get more and it wouldn't be particularly close. He is the better basketball player of the two. Good guards will get more than ****** wings... FVV is a lot smaller than Cason and gonna get a bag.
We will see on draft night. GG is VERY polarizing so a team may take a chance on him in the mid teens but I think he's more likely to end up in the 20s than top 9.
I don't mind the YOLO mentality.....or the idea behind it I guess. You want to maximize your chance at getting a star even if it means a higher risk at a bust. I just think people calculate those chances poorly. The guys who turn into stars are often the guys like Mikal who are cast as role players. They aren't guys like Ziaire Williams who sucked at being a star at the college level.
Mikal, Bane, Brogdon, Brunson, Butler, Haliburton, Shai (yes read some of his predraft scouting reports), Sabonis, Siakam, FVV, Booker, Jokic ect.......These are guys who became big steals later in the draft. The reason why they weren't drafted higher isn't because they sucked coming into the league, it's because people thought their potential was lower coming into the draft because of X, Y, Z.
Mikal, Bane, Brogdon, Brunson, Butler, Haliburton, Shai (yes read some of his predraft scouting reports), Sabonis, Siakam, FVV, Booker, Jokic ect.......These are guys who became big steals later in the draft. The reason why they weren't drafted higher isn't because they sucked coming into the league, it's because people thought their potential was lower coming into the draft because of X, Y, Z.
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One of my favorite things about GG is in addition to the poor shooting percentages and poor defense... he has a hilarious 1:3 assist to turnover ratio.
For real. Like you could maybe sell me on one of these things developing. But the amount of improvement it would take to just get to baseline ability and get on an NBA court is massive. You can be really, really good at offense like Christian Wood and still not really have a place on the court come playoff time if the other parts of your game are lacking.