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Does Lauri Get Traded?

Does Lauri Get Dealt Before The Season Starts?

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
We will absolutely be the 7th or 8th worst team in the league if we do nothing the rest of the offseason.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If we landed a top 5 guy next year I think we could see a shift to more win now. Once you have that potential superstar it’s easier to move forward. Would have a better idea of what the kids look like too. He could still be moved for sure I’m not sure if the value today is higher than if he was extended but I doubt it lowers so long as he’s healthy.

IDK… it’s all up in the air right now lol.
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This is the biggest reason why I think the trade won't go through this summer unless it's completely bonkers of a haul. Lauri flashed improved playmaking when we run some plays which we did for KO pre trades. I could see him average 25/9/3-4 assists, bc his role is even bigger it was last season. It both increases his value and makes it even harder to pull the trigger, especially if Jazz somehow can lose enough to land high pick.
 
MT Steve said:
Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.
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Also the flat lottety odds are just ignored in the reasonings.

Like when Tech was traded the reasoning for some was we improve our pick. Well in hindsight keeping him would have probably given us #1 overall.

Its not really worth giving up on a young winning player just to land 5% better lottery odds.

I endorse Lauri trade not for the tanking part but for the fact that the trade haul is a better package of assets than the player if you are building a contender for 2029 and beyond.
 
Also 2029 wasnt a random year. Thats when this years and last years draftees have all passed 24 years of age (barely).
 
The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.
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Yeah, if the Jazz end up as the 7th or 8th worst team, it almost certainly means our young players are exceeding expectations, which would be fantastic.
 
MT Steve said:
Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.
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Yeah, but the Jazz got lucky with that.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.
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Keep an eye on Chicago. They're melting down pretty fast.
 
MT Steve said:
Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.
Click to expand...
Not all drafts are the same. This years draft was one of the worst of the last 15 or so years... next years is one of the best. Difference between top 5 and 8-10 will be more important than maximizing the value of a good player.
 
HermanG said:
Also the flat lottety odds are just ignored in the reasonings.

Like when Tech was traded the reasoning for some was we improve our pick. Well in hindsight keeping him would have probably given us #1 overall.

Its not really worth giving up on a young winning player just to land 5% better lottery odds.

I endorse Lauri trade not for the tanking part but for the fact that the trade haul is a better package of assets than the player if you are building a contender for 2029 and beyond.
Click to expand...
They aren't. If this was a 1-2 player draft then 6-8 or 4-6 who really cares that much. Draft positioning is about increased odds but also increased draft slot floor. Miss out on those 50/50 odds of landing top 4 and still land 5th... okay... miss out on those 30% odds and land 8th/9th... that's a problem. You don't have to trust me... but the difference between the 5th pick next year and the 9th pick next year will be much more than whatever Walker Kessler's value will be with one year left on his deal.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
They aren't. If this was a 1-2 player draft then 6-8 or 4-6 who really cares that much. Draft positioning is about increased odds but also increased draft slot floor. Miss out on those 50/50 odds of landing top 4 and still land 5th... okay... miss out on those 30% odds and land 8th/9th... that's a problem. You don't have to trust me... but the difference between the 5th pick next year and the 9th pick next year will be much more than whatever Walker Kessler's value will be with one year left on his deal.
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If Kessler by himself is enough to bring you from 5th to 9th by helping you win too many games, then it's extremely unlikely the difference between the 5th and 9th picks next year will match his value.

Especially when you factor in probabilities: The combined odds of the Jazz either jumping up in the lottery, or staying put but drafting a player who ends up better than the dude drafted a few spots earlier, which happens all the time.
 
Funny thing is this analysis also assumes that Kessler HAS this massive of an impact on winning. I'm like one of the biggest Kessler homers on this forum and even I don't think he's near that level.

It would be beyond silly to have the driving force behind a Kessler trade be "He'll help us win too many games this season".
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.
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If we don't move one of Walker/Sexton/Lauri and have moderate health... we will be better than all of those teams. Melo can't stay healthy. Sounds like Bridges is gone. The rest is a pile of meh.

Detroit... is a complete pile of maybe's and have a terrible shooting lineup. If the answer is Tobias Harris... well... good luck with that.

Portland likely has another shoe to drop and I could see them being improved if Scoot isn't ***, Simons stays healthy, and Clingan is good. They like move Grant... but if not they are the most likely of that group to be better than us.

Then there is the Hawks and Bulls... could go either way depending on health. Bulls will be highly motivated to tank... Atlanta not at all. Raps are no guarantee either but should be play in worthy.

But there is also the team you don't see now that sustains a big injury early... GS, Memphis have been this team in the past.

If Walker, Sexton, Lauri don't prop us up to say 5th or 6th worst team with the group we just looked at... then what is their trade value at season's end? Likely means they weren't good and Sexton and Walker now have a year left. You are also committing the sin we did in the Wemby draft. "we will be horrible... don't worry" someone even started a thread about it. You are leaving yourself open to one guy popping and now you are a 35ish win team that has to choose between keeping your draft pick or selling at a discount to barely sneak into the top 10. We've already effed around like this before.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
They aren't. If this was a 1-2 player draft then 6-8 or 4-6 who really cares that much. Draft positioning is about increased odds but also increased draft slot floor. Miss out on those 50/50 odds of landing top 4 and still land 5th... okay... miss out on those 30% odds and land 8th/9th... that's a problem. You don't have to trust me... but the difference between the 5th pick next year and the 9th pick next year will be much more than whatever Walker Kessler's value will be with one year left on his deal.
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But you are not guaranteeing top 5 with anything but the worst record. For everyone else its about the lotto balls.

Also 5th has 42% (so more 40/60 than 50/50) odds for top 4 and floor is 9. Its way better than 8th who has 26% for top 4 and floor at 12 (albeit 5th getting jumped is more common than 8th, and if 8th gets jumped then 5th does as well).

But 16% is not worth giving up anything that could be a good future piece.
 
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