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No Democracy Lasts Forever….

I think polling is flawed atm because they are using assumptions based on behavior from 30+ years ago, and they do not have the ability to even create a modern model because it wouldn't be relevant from one election cycle to the next. Polling is probably broken for at least this Presidential election and the next. I think it depends on AI, so until AI either produces a reliable polling strategy or just goes ahead and tells us who is going to win, I don't think polling means anything.
If the polls are broken and history is a guide, then the polls are undercounting Trump votes. I don't personally believe that. I think it is an idea being pushed into the public, like cutting down the Supreme Court, and getting rid of the US Constitution to save democracy.

The aspect to that last one I find so amusing is the crowd demanding more democracy to save us are the same ones upset at the Supreme Court ruling that struck down Roe v Wade. That ruling strengthened democracy. It took an issue that was locked away from democracy and made it subject to democracy. People look at what happened and cry about taking rights away, then 2 minutes later want to make everything that is locked away from democracy made subject to democracy.

Democracy always dies for the same reason Socialism always dies. It gets human nature wrong. It assumes the majority of people will seek to benefit the whole of society. Republics and capitalism endure because they operate on the assumption that people are selfish pricks who can only be reliably counted on to work for the benefit of themselves, their family, and close acquaintances they know directly at maximum.
 
Many left apparatchiks are panicking over how fast Black and Hispanic men are moving into Trump’s base of support.
Panicking.

 
Republics and capitalism endure because they operate on the assumption that people are selfish pricks who can only be reliably counted on to work for the benefit of themselves, their family, and close acquaintances they know directly at maximum.
If only a candidate was running on that platform instead of whatever ******** we are dealing with right now.
 
What’s the best way to ballot harvest for republicans? Cow manure, guns, bibles and porn stars? Does that work best?

What’s the best way to ballot Democrats? Books with rainbow covers?

Do ballots require a lot of rain and sunshine? If so, then the party with a weather machine will have a great advantage. What impact do Jewish space lasers have on harvests? Does Rudy Guilani’s ooze from his head help harvests to grow? What about Trump’s BO? Mar a lago seems to have a lot of silicone and Botox, can they be used to grow the harvest? Which fertilizer works best, newsman, oann, or Fox News? If a president orders ballot harvesting, it’s legal, cuz I’m pretty sure the Supreme Court said a president can do whatever they want.
 

The cult is strong. Trump supporters can convince themselves of anything, including that The Rapist is a moral being sent by God almighty to stick a boot up the libtards ***-es. Keep in mind when you go out today that about half the people you meet are willing to take down our country by electing a traitor just to **** over anyone not in the cult.
 
Fascist to the core….


Mark Milley, the US Army general who Donald Trump appointed as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, now says the current Republican presidential nominee is a “fascist to the core” and says no person has ever posed more of a danger to the United States than the man who served as the 45th President of the United States.

Milley, a decorated military officer who became a target for right-wing scorn after it became known that he expressed concerns over Trump’s mental stability in the wake of his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, is described by journalist Bob Woodward in his new book, War, as incredibly alarmed at the prospect of a second Trump term in the White House. The Independent obtained a copy ahead of the book’s October 15 release date.

In the wake of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by a riotous mob of the then-president’s supporters, Woodward writes that Milley insisted on securing a meeting with the then-newly-minted attorney general, Merrick Garland, to urge him to investigate domestic violent extremism and far-right militia movements.

According to Woodward, a senior Department of Justice lawyer said at the time that Milley’s sit-down with Garland might have been the first-ever meeting between a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the country’s top civilian law enforcement official. He writes that the general asked for the meeting because he was “deeply convinced” that Trump remained “a danger to the country” even though he had been forced from office after Biden’s election win.

But the Army veteran expressed even more strident concerns to Woodward himself at a March 2023 meeting at the Willard Hotel in Washington, DC.

Woodward writes that when he approached Milley at a reception, the general spoke first and told him: “We gotta talk.”

He told the journalist that “no one has ever been as dangerous to this country” as the former president.


He asked: “Do you realize, do you see what this man is?”

Milley, who had been a source for Woodward’s last book, Peril, said he’d “glimpsed” Trump’s true nature when they previously spoke during the writing of that 2021 release, but he said he now knew exactly what the ex-president is.

“He is the most dangerous person ever. I had suspicions when I talked to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is now the most dangerous person to this country,” he said.

“A fascist to the core,” Milley repeated.
 
Trump has been depicting all of America as a place of tremendous peril: “You can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot, you get mugged, you get raped, you get whatever it may be and you’ve seen it and I’ve seen it.” Yet crime rates across the nation are down this year, including for murder.

A critical piece of his disinformation strategy...
"His disinformation strategy". So much wishful thinking going on. If you click on the links to find the source for the data showing crime rates being down, it is always the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR is manipulated. The FBI admits right up front the UCR only reflects information from "participating agencies", and if data from an agency will have too negative of an impact then they aren't participating in the statistics that year.

The FBI has a different crime report that isn't selectively curated from "participating agencies". It is the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey.

the Bureau conducts its own survey, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). It relies on responses from some 230,000 households, rather than law enforcement agencies, and found that violent crime rose by 19 percent between 2019 and 2023. Anderson also stresses that the urban violent crime rate is rising even faster: up 54 percent between 2019 and 2023, which is more in line with public perception.


Trump's supposed disinformation strategy is to voice the findings of the FBI.
 
"His disinformation strategy". So much wishful thinking going on. If you click on the links to find the source for the data showing crime rates being down, it is always the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR is manipulated. The FBI admits right up front the UCR only reflects information from "participating agencies", and if data from an agency will have too negative of an impact then they aren't participating in the statistics that year.

The FBI has a different crime report that isn't selectively curated from "participating agencies". It is the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey.



Trump's supposed disinformation strategy is to voice the findings of the FBI.

Kindly STFU. Even if that were true it really has nothing to do with the insane threat The Rapist is and the damage he's already done to our country. Are you blind to that or just out to watch our country burn?
 
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"His disinformation strategy". So much wishful thinking going on. If you click on the links to find the source for the data showing crime rates being down, it is always the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR is manipulated. The FBI admits right up front the UCR only reflects information from "participating agencies", and if data from an agency will have too negative of an impact then they aren't participating in the statistics that year.

The FBI has a different crime report that isn't selectively curated from "participating agencies". It is the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey.



Trump's supposed disinformation strategy is to voice the findings of the FBI.
The logic doesn't make sense. How long have they been manipulating the data this way?
 
The logic doesn't make sense. How long have they been manipulating the data this way?
I think they've been doing it for as long as the UCR has existed. It is the reason the FBI created the NVCS 50 years ago. The UCR only captures reported crimes from a portion of law enforcement agencies and can be swayed by who is in and who is out in any particular year, which does change year-by-year. The NVCS captures unreported crimes and includes areas omitted from the UCR.

The UCR and NVCS usually have a discrepancy but this year is really bad. Biden/Harris are touting the UCR data because it makes them look good, and Trump is echoing the NVCS because it makes Biden/Harris look bad. That Biden/Harris fans are calling Trump's statements "misinformation" only proves how misused that word is. Per FBI statistics, crime is down. Per FBI statistics, crime is up.
 
Here is a list from 2021 and 2022 of stat contributors among the largest law enforcement agencies to the FBI's UCR;

UCR_participation.gif
 
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"His disinformation strategy". So much wishful thinking going on. If you click on the links to find the source for the data showing crime rates being down, it is always the FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR). The UCR is manipulated. The FBI admits right up front the UCR only reflects information from "participating agencies", and if data from an agency will have too negative of an impact then they aren't participating in the statistics that year.

The FBI has a different crime report that isn't selectively curated from "participating agencies". It is the FBI's National Crime Victimization Survey.



Trump's supposed disinformation strategy is to voice the findings of the FBI.
So you are saying this is true?:
“You can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot, you get mugged, you get raped, you get whatever it may be and you’ve seen it and I’ve seen it.” Yet crime rates across the nation are down this year, including for murder.

Cause I haven't known anyone to get shot, mugged, raped or anything close to any of that in the last 4 years. How many times have you been raped, shot or mugged in the last 4 years? Anyone on app or jazzfanz had any of these things happen to them?
Maybe trump is lying.

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Kindly STFU

The logic doesn't make sense. How long have they been manipulating the data this way?
AI-O-Meter will always, always, reply to threads with the aim of absolute mininmizing of who Trump is, and what he represents. Always. We all know Trump invented an alternative fictional reality, and is running on the basis of a false history of our present moment, and a false history of recent years. He can be expected to act on that fake history if he returns. That, at least in part, represents the “I will be your retribution” part of his campaign promises.

Of course, he’s nobody’s retribution but his own: they are not coming after his followers: he seeks retribution against those good Americans, Americans who understand America has always been AN IDEA, and America has always been a work in progress. Those good Americans who recognize his fascist mentality, his hate-filled lies, those Americans who simply believe this particular president should be held accountable for his crimes against our institutions.

If we care at all about our nation, and the high ideals represented by this wonderful work in progress that is the United States, then of course we should hold this most un-American ex-president to account. That will only happen if he is defeated.

As for AI-O-Meter, he will always deflect from the truth of our present moment. He has no understanding whatsoever of what our nation represents, and how much Donald Trump and MAGA are the very antithesis of our ideals.
 
Anybody think Donald Trump will never mention his fake narrative again, fake recent American history again, if he is elected again in November? I know many of us find it absurd, even alarming, that we have the very man who attempted to prevent a transfer of power to fairly elected Joe Biden, via a coup, in line to return to the Oval Office.

That fact alone is why it is so ridiculous to see clueless Trump supporters accuse those of us with a clear vision and understanding of our present moment, as possessed by TDS, just all Trump-Hate. I don’t even hate the guy. I just think he has no self understanding whatsoever. I can say “there but for the grace of god go I”, because he is a human being, and I’m just glad my inner life is not ruled by the degree of ignorance that drives Trump.

But make no mistake. Yes, he’s ignorant, and where the meaning of human life is concerned, he is ignorant beyond most. Yet, all these lies and the creation of a fake American recent history is no random nonsense: it is what authoritarians do: they alter the historical record in order to justify their power grab. Because this is really what Trump is doing, and emulating Putin in the process, and once returned to power, that fake Trump-loving history will be the official history. And he will act on its basis, on the fundamental phony facts of his alternative reality.

Do you find the idea of that absurd? Do you find governing on the basis of a history that never happened in the real world we all inhabit not the way to go?? If you are a rational human being, not wishing permanent harm upon your nation, believe Truth is something we should adhere to, not Big Lies, then the precarious nature of our present moment is clear enough. We want to avoid Trump 2.0.

There has never been a president more opposed to our ideals as an experiment in human history than Donald Trump.
 
This is what Trump supporters are themselves supporting. No justification for this. And the trolls here all support doing this, because owning the libs is far more important than respect for Truth. Help an authoritarian seize power in the nation we established many generations ago, with ideals that certainly did not include assisting lying demagogues to seize power. This is the side you support, Trumpers. And you don’t care one damn bit how much damage you do to our country….


The truth is, it’s getting harder to describe the extent to which a meaningful percentage of Americans have dissociated from reality. As Hurricane Milton churned across the Gulf of Mexico last night, I saw an onslaught of outright conspiracy theorizing and utter nonsense racking up millions of views across the internet. The posts would be laughable if they weren’t taken by many people as gospel. Among them: Infowars’ Alex Jones, who claimed that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were “weather weapons” unleashed on the East Coast by the U.S. government, and “truth seeker” accounts on X that postedphotos of condensation trails in the sky to baselessly allege that the government was “spraying Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton” in order to ensure maximum rainfall, “just like they did over Asheville!”

As Milton made landfall, causing a series of tornados, a verified account on X reposted a TikTok video of a massive funnel cloud with the caption “WHAT IS HAPPENING TO FLORIDA?!” The clip, which was eventually removed but had been viewed 662,000 times as of yesterday evening, turned out to be from a video of a CGI tornado that was originally published months ago. Scrolling through these platforms, watching them fill with false information, harebrained theories, and doctored images—all while panicked residents boarded up their houses, struggled to evacuate, and prayed that their worldly possessions wouldn’t be obliterated overnight—offered a portrait of American discourse almost too bleak to reckon with head-on.

Even in a decade marred by online grifters, shameless politicians, and an alternative right-wing-media complex pushing anti-science fringe theories, the events of the past few weeks stand out for their depravity and nihilism. As two catastrophic storms upended American cities, a patchwork network of influencers and fake-news peddlers have done their best to sow distrust, stoke resentment, and interfere with relief efforts. But this is more than just a misinformation crisis. To watch as real information is overwhelmed by crank theories and public servants battle death threats is to confront two alarming facts: first, that a durable ecosystem exists to ensconce citizens in an alternate reality, and second, that the people consuming and amplifying those lies are not helpless dupes but willing participants.
 
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It's ironic that trump says that migrants are constantly shooting, raping, mugging Americans yet trump has literally had 2 people try to shoot him in the last couple months and neither of the shooters were migrants.

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I think they've been doing it for as long as the UCR has existed. It is the reason the FBI created the NVCS 50 years ago. The UCR only captures reported crimes from a portion of law enforcement agencies and can be swayed by who is in and who is out in any particular year, which does change year-by-year. The NVCS captures unreported crimes and includes areas omitted from the UCR.

The UCR and NVCS usually have a discrepancy but this year is really bad. Biden/Harris are touting the UCR data because it makes them look good, and Trump is echoing the NVCS because it makes Biden/Harris look bad. That Biden/Harris fans are calling Trump's statements "misinformation" only proves how misused that word is. Per FBI statistics, crime is down. Per FBI statistics, crime is up.
OK perfect. You say the downward trend is fake because the numbers are intentionally lowballed. Yet, this is the norm for this measurement since it's inception. That means downward trends cannot be caused by the same manipulation that is used as standard for this measurement. Trends are still trends and must represent a real world change.

Thanks for playing.
 
AI-O-Meter will always, always, reply to threads with the aim of absolute mininmizing of who Trump is, and what he represents. Always. We all know Trump invented an alternative fictional reality, and is running on the basis of a false history of our present moment, and a false history of recent years. He can be expected to act on that fake history if he returns. That, at least in part, represents the “I will be your retribution” part of his campaign promises.

Of course, he’s nobody’s retribution but his own: they are not coming after his followers: he seeks retribution against those good Americans, Americans who understand America has always been AN IDEA, and America has always been a work in progress. Those good Americans who recognize his fascist mentality, his hate-filled lies, those Americans who simply believe this particular president should be held accountable for his crimes against our institutions.

If we care at all about our nation, and the high ideals represented by this wonderful work in progress that is the United States, then of course we should hold this most un-American ex-president to account. That will only happen if he is defeated.

As for AI-O-Meter, he will always deflect from the truth of our present moment. He has no understanding whatsoever of what our nation represents, and how much Donald Trump and MAGA are the very antithesis of our ideals.
He is a known troll, so none of that is surprising in the least.
 
Are people still trying to engage with idiotic trolls like Al and Jazzy? Why not turn your grill to maximum for 10 mins and get it nice and toasty and lay your bar scrotum on on it? If you love doing stupid things, I have a whole list for you to use and it’ll be far more entertaining than wasting your time with those morons. If you’d just ignore them, they’d be forced to find another message board to spam. Especially since ownership here doesn’t seem interested in banning them. Do the next best thing, mass ignore these losers. Once they find zero engagement, they’ll leave.

Remember, they’re low iq bad faith actors. They’re not discussion. They’re looking to get a reaction. They’re bored and the way they cream themselves is if you give them the attention they crave.
 
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