2024-2025 Tank Race

[idiot]

Its true. The real strategy is to get insanely lucky one way or another and make good decisions (that also require some luck) along the way. I think the reason the tear down was smart was in part because I feel the writing was on the wall (okay if others feel differently that's fine) and because we nabbed the future luck of a couple additional teams. That particular flavor of tanking hasn't been done much and has had a higher success rate. OKC/Boston... can't think of too many others though Philly did this just didn't have as big a head start. I think it was a smart start but we haven't nailed a ton of stuff since so its likely a longer process than I had hoped.

Agree with this.

I wasn't against the tear down. I saw the writing on the wall, although it hurt at the time. I'm not against putting ourselves in position to lose (unless you trade Kessler!!). But I'm not going to sweat the minor sweetness that the season brings. And I'll occasionally point out that the odds of the kind of success we're all hoping for through tanking remain quite low when I think I see too much faith being placed in the tank.

Just wish we could enjoy the positive parts things that have happened and not have to sublimate everything to the goal of losing as much as we can. We've hardly enjoyed the Collins rejuvenation, Walker's big step toward really mattering in the NBA, Sexton's continued remarkable offensive efficiency, Juzang's big step forward, Keyonte's slow rise toward greater efficiency, whatever bright spots we've seen from Brice and Flip and company. We haven't been able to enjoy the road blowouts of the Heat and the Magic. It seems everything must yield to the tank.

 

[KqWIN]

Agree with this.

I wasn't against the tear down. I saw the writing on the wall, although it hurt at the time. I'm not against putting ourselves in position to lose (unless you trade Kessler!!). But I'm not going to sweat the minor sweetness that the season brings. And I'll occasionally point out that the odds of the kind of success we're all hoping for through tanking remain quite low when I think I see too much faith being placed in the tank.

Just wish we could enjoy the positive parts things that have happened and not have to sublimate everything to the goal of losing as much as we can. We've hardly enjoyed the Collins rejuvenation, Walker's big step toward really mattering in the NBA, Sexton's continued remarkable offensive efficiency, Juzang's big step forward, Keyonte's slow rise toward greater efficiency, whatever bright spots we've seen from Brice and Flip and company. We haven't been able to enjoy the road blowouts of the Heat and the Magic. It seems everything must yield to the tank.

Unfortunately, I think this goes beyond tanking. This is just kind of the way the NBA is. Unless you win the chip, you're subject to this kind of stuff. Sometimes even when you win the chip you still have this. Everything is about big picture and championship or bust. What goes on day to day during the season is reduced to irrelevancy.

The Don/Rudy Jazz, for example, were one of the best teams in the league over a decent period of time. But they were seen as joke then/now because it did not result in a championship.

 

[gomretat]

The smugness goes both ways though. The never tankers will mention how it doesn't ever work and then you give them 5-10 examples of it working and they are like "that wasn't tanking".

There is just no fool proof plan or even a good route you feel is dependable. Its just choosing between bad choices. I thought it was smart to pivot when we did but we should have been shuffling the deck the two years or so before that and made some tremendous errors prior to the tear down. Tony Jones has also said we didn't have the choice of keeping Donovan. So I think he had let them know behind the scenes but... shrug.

At this point I think anti-tankers have to think its the best route for us now but smart tankers also need to know this route almost surely leads to multi year pain and just an okayish outcome.

Side note - I think I have the solution to fix tanking but will wait for the pod to outline it. Remind me @Elizah Huge when we pod as I think I have stumbled onto a concept that would work.

Blowing it up after Karl and John made sense and those teams were very fun basketball to watch. Trading both Rudy and Donovan made no sense then and still doesnt. You could have gotten plenty of assets for one or the other and then still made decision on Royce, Conley, Bogey etc. Donny clearly wanted out but he would have stayed and played and Rudy wanted to be here. Even with clean out, no one can explain why they twittered around for 2 years before really throwing in the towel. The national media to a person has been clear about how confusing the Jazz path has been but the locals other than Spence Checketts continue to act like what we are doing makes sense. Spence commented today on his show how lowly rated the Jazz FO is in a recent article in the Athletic and reminisced that during the tenure of the Millers how respected and highly rated our FO was on a year in year out basis. We might pull a rabbit out of a hat but the path we have taken is confusing at best. There are no guarantees with any approach but there are ways that make a lot more sense than others.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Blowing it up after Karl and John made sense and those teams were very fun basketball to watch. Trading both Rudy and Donovan made no sense then and still doesnt. You could have gotten plenty of assets for one or the other and then still made decision on Royce, Conley, Bogey etc. Donny clearly wanted out but he would have stayed and played and Rudy wanted to be here. Even with clean out, no one can explain why they twittered around for 2 years before really throwing in the towel. The national media to a person has been clear about how confusing the Jazz path has been but the locals other than Spence Checketts continue to act like what we are doing makes sense. Spence commented today on his show how lowly rated the Jazz FO is in a recent article in the Athletic and reminisced that during the tenure of the Millers how respected and highly rated our FO was on a year in year out basis. We might pull a rabbit out of a hat but the path we have taken is confusing at best. There are no guarantees with any approach but there are ways that make a lot more sense than others.

It makes sense because the one player you were going to be able to retain is Rudy and he was older and you didn't know Lauri was gonna be an All-Star. It could also make sense to do one of the trades and build around the other... because multiple things can make sense. But building around Rudy and Mike Conley plus the stuff we got back had its own drawbacks.

I give zero effs what an Athletic article says. I give less effs than that about what Spence thinks. I will listen to his show because he gets great guests that provide insight but he clearly has a bone to pick with the current regime.

The reason we toiled in between strategies was pretty simple. Lauri/Walker were way better than they thought and they didn't cut deep enough early enough the first year. They continued the following year because they wanted to see if they could do the fast rebuild and the draft was terrible... so they actually might want to make the play in and convey the pick they gave up. And look... I'm one of the guys that was like "ummmm guys this is still a 35 win team" so I'm not excusing them but that is what the thought process was. If they had gotten lucky and landed a top 4 pick in either draft things might be a little different.

There are up seasons and down seasons. They could have tried to continue Don and Rudy but it was so clearly over with those two. The prior group did nothing to build the pipeline so either we had to invest more draft capital (the lifeblood of a non-FA market) or rearrange some deck chairs and hope that the issues that had been bubbling for years unresolved would resolve themselves. I have it on very good authority that the locker room and org was a completely unhappy mess. It was a perfectly fine decision to blow it up for the premium they got. Because they did so well in the trades it made it hard to bottom all the way out. The drafting has been spotty but that is how drafting goes.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

So yeah, Zion Williamson is back. That helps.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Hornets are full strength now. Could pull off some more Ws

 

[NUMBERICA]

Hornets are full strength now. Could pull off some more Ws

For the uninitiated, what are the injuries that have rendered them to the very bottom-tier of the NBA?

Would have preferred that they didn't beat a team vying with Minnesota in the standings tonight, but I shouldn't complain.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

For the uninitiated, what are the injuries that have rendered them to the very bottom-tier of the NBA?

Would have preferred that they didn't beat a team vying with Minnesota in the standings tonight, but I shouldn't complain.

Mark Williams to start. Then Ball and Bridges missed a lot of time

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And I guess they aren't full full strength. Mann is still out, but they have all the main needle movers playing now

 

[NUMBERICA]

Please, god, keep Zion healthy at least until after the Jazz play them twice.

 

[homeytennis]

Ainge needs to tamp down on this quickly: "The messaging doesn’t change,” head coach Will Hardy told Jones. “The players deserve all of the credit. They have dug in, and they have bought into the little things that it takes to win. This has become a cohesive group that’s committed to helping each other."

 

[HermanG]

Then this entire season is besides the point if we MUST land Flagg/Harper, because statistically we are not getting them regardless of our record (27% chances in the best case scenario). The goal of tanking is not getting for sure 1st or 2nd pick but significantly improving your chances to end up with a higher pick. Having 1st vs 5th odds does exactly that.

I didnt make up the rules. I only replied to HotRod saying we need to land top 2. In that context, the difference between worst and 5th worst record is not really meaningful... you need to get very lucky either way.

I hope I dont have to spell this again.

 

[HermanG]

Now do the other team building strategies. What exactly is the alternative? We are both doing the tank and middle build by holding other teams picks. If we opt to build through FA and trades we have the necessary fodder to do that. The tank is one component of what we opted to do. None of the strategies have high success rates. Even trading for stars has some catastrophic consequences and a low success rate.

Its likely a multi-year endeavor though as we haven't hit on the drafted star with our mid/late lotto or other picks (most likely) and haven't gotten the luck of jumping into the top 4 to have a better shot at drafting the star. At this point we have to likely sell off part of the infrastructure that would make it a quick rebuild.

Most in here arent really fans of Ainges "keep options open" approach and they want more committal decisions... but I actually think there is some sense in not going all-in either way at this stage. The "trade for a star" approach is a bit less feasible than it was 2 years ago, but I dont think its dead. We arent that bad despite giving a lot of minutes to guys who arent necessarily conductive to winning (Key, Collier, Cody, Flip). Selling is also still possible, and its definitely in the realm of possibilities we may swing for a young stud with a Lauri trade next offseason.

The real reason I like the strategy is that you cannot force lottery luck... and if we get lucky we are in position to start building up immediately. If we dont get lucky, we still got some assets to trade away to kick the can down the road until we get lucky.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

UTA loses by 3
NOP loses by 7
WAS loses by 23
CHA wins by 11

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Most in here arent really fans of Ainges "keep options open" approach and they want more committal decisions... but I actually think there is some sense in not going all-in either way at this stage. The "trade for a star" approach is a bit less feasible than it was 2 years ago, but I dont think its dead. We arent that bad despite giving a lot of minutes to guys who arent necessarily conductive to winning (Key, Collier, Cody, Flip). Selling is also still possible, and its definitely in the realm of possibilities we may swing for a young stud with a Lauri trade next offseason.

The real reason I like the strategy is that you cannot force lottery luck... and if we get lucky we are in position to start building up immediately. If we dont get lucky, we still got some assets to trade away to kick the can down the road until we get lucky.

Yeah I am more a fan of the Presti method of "here is the 5 year plan and we do not deviate" but there is some bias there because it has worked so well. I also thought it was dumb they didn't at least add a cheap big to supplement the roster a bit because they are so "disciplined". So i think there is merit to Ainge's opportunistic approach.

I think my big criticism of the approach Ainge has is just overconcerned with the dimes and nickels versus the dollars at times. Like don't trade Bogey for KO... you had a roster hole which is how you gain a lot of ground in the tank race (we didn't know walker would be good immediately). Wanted full value for Mike and others rather than settling earlier (maybe he didn't have the opportunities... I think he did). Adding Svi and Drew this year may pay off and not hurt the tank too much but both have been good and provide more infrastructure for winning. If they simply trade one player and manage vet time with Sexton/Lauri/Kessler AND (the real key) prioritize 20 minutes for both Collier and Williams every night no matter what... then the tank should be fine. Neither guy should spend a minute in the G. I don't care what is better for their development. They are nickels and dimes and a top 5 pick is the dollar (maybe quarter).

So overall I appreciate what I think the franchise is trying to do as the last few years of DL was terrible and frustrating. Its nice at least to have a little bit of proactivity even if it misses the mark at times.

 

[jazznik]

Yesterday Washington played Houston and put out the following starting five: Sarr - Kyshawn George - Kuzma (they limited him to 17 minutes) - Coulibaly - Carrington. The Wizards lost by 23. THAT is how you should tank.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yesterday Washington played Houston and put out the following starting five: Sarr - Kyshawn George - Kuzma (they limited him to 17 minutes) - Coulibaly - Carrington. The Wizards lost by 23. THAT is how you should tank.

The fact that Lauri was questionable with back spasms and played last night tells me we only kind of understand how grimy we need to get. That is an injury you can EASILY justify and extra day or two even if he is relatively pain free. We barely survived but we can't have any more of the games like Dallas.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yesterday Washington played Houston and put out the following starting five: Sarr - Kyshawn George - Kuzma (they limited him to 17 minutes) - Coulibaly - Carrington. The Wizards lost by 23. THAT is how you should tank.

They also suck *** even if they played their fully healthy roster, so it doesnt really matter. They are going to lose to Houston 9/10 times no matter who they play.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Yeah I am more a fan of the Presti method of "here is the 5 year plan and we do not deviate" but there is some bias there because it has worked so well. I also thought it was dumb they didn't at least add a cheap big to supplement the roster a bit because they are so "disciplined". So i think there is merit to Ainge's opportunistic approach.

I think my big criticism of the approach Ainge has is just overconcerned with the dimes and nickels versus the dollars at times. Like don't trade Bogey for KO... you had a roster hole which is how you gain a lot of ground in the tank race (we didn't know walker would be good immediately). Wanted full value for Mike and others rather than settling earlier (maybe he didn't have the opportunities... I think he did). Adding Svi and Drew this year may pay off and not hurt the tank too much but both have been good and provide more infrastructure for winning. If they simply trade one player and manage vet time with Sexton/Lauri/Kessler AND (the real key) prioritize 20 minutes for both Collier and Williams every night no matter what... then the tank should be fine. Neither guy should spend a minute in the G. I don't care what is better for their development. They are nickels and dimes and a top 5 pick is the dollar (maybe quarter).

So overall I appreciate what I think the franchise is trying to do as the last few years of DL was terrible and frustrating. It’s nice at least to have a little bit of proactivity even if it misses the mark at times.

Did Presti really have a 5-year plan that he didn’t deviate from? Their team made the playoffs after trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Did Presti really have a 5-year plan that he didn’t deviate from? Their team made the playoffs after trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook.

Its was using it more as a figure of speech. Not literal. Just his mindset is "this is the plan, this is the timing/steps, don't jump at something outside the plan".