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2024-2025 Tank Race

SoberasHotRod said:
OK, I disagree, but not that big of a deal.

I think Harper is a significantly better prospect than the others, so getting top two is pretty important to me. I also think there is a significant drop off after 6, so securing top 6 is a big deal to me. Those are bigger deals for winning the tank race than 3.5% better odds at Flagg.

IF Flagg was the only player I thought was worth getting in this draft it would be hard to stomach watching 20 more games of horrible basketball and then having to endure the off season, for 3.5% better odds of something good happening.
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Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
 
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
 
KqWIN said:
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
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No doubt.
Imagine being a suns fan right now lol. Holy **** that would suck way worse than tanking for a small shot at Flagg
 
fishonjazz said:
Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
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Here you go:

www.tankathon.com

2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2025 NBA lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.
www.tankathon.com www.tankathon.com
 
KqWIN said:
For all the hand wringing about how poor the odds are (including from myself), having even a 10% chance at Flagg is absolutely worth abandoning the half tank and if the guys next year are as good it will be worth it again. I am so happy we're here instead of hovering again and we should thank the gods DA failed at his Bridges+George swoop.
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Here here
 
fishonjazz said:
Question (might seem dumb but I legit don't know the answer):
If we finish with the 5th worst record do we have worse odds or the same odds to get the #2 pick and Harper vs finishing with the 3rd worst record?
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Same odds. Lottery odds are flat for the teams with the three worst records, but they would stay in the same relative order if nobody hits on the lottery of the three.
 
fishonjazz said:
No doubt.
Imagine being a suns fan right now lol. Holy **** that would suck way worse than tanking for a small shot at Flagg
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I never want to be in that position. This is something that I don’t think anti-tankers ever weigh in the debate: that acting in desperation to achieve mediocrity or worse is far, far worse. That was what the last year of Mitchell/Gobert/Quin started to feel like and it was my least-favorite season by a wide margin.
 
What sucks is that the Mavs dont play the Hornets/Wizards/Pelicans at all anymore, so we cant even benefit from the Mavs losing to our main tank competitors.
 
fishonjazz said:
Seems like you would care more since you have a better chance at Cooper and Harper by being 3rd worst vs 5th worst.
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Yeah, I do care. You must not have understood my post.

I think getting the 2nd worst record is important because you have the best odds at Flagg AND Harper AND are guaranteed a top 6 pick.

IF I was only concerned about getting Flagg and didn't care about the other things then the difference between ending up as the 2nd worst team or 5th worst team would not be a big enough motivator to not watch good basketball for the rest of the season.
 
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
Dallas dropping out of the play in entirely would be the best case scenario now. Minnesota would whoop the Mavs in a play in game. If PHX can make the play in, they can theoretically beat the Wolves if they get their **** together.
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POR is only 4 games out, the could honestly make it in. I think PHO has a better shot in a one game series vs MIN, but POR has been great lately and they have a chaotic style that could upset anyone on a given night.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Yeah, I do care. You must not have understood my post.

I think getting the 2nd worst record is important because you have the best odds at Flagg AND Harper AND are guaranteed a top 6 pick.

IF I was only concerned about getting Flagg and didn't care about the other things then the difference between ending up as the 2nd worst team or 5th worst team would not be a big enough motivator to not watch good basketball for the rest of the season.
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Just for reference on the difference in odds of 2nd worst vs 5th worst for what I am referring to in this post

Flagg - 3.5% difference
Harper or Flagg - 6.4% difference
Top 6 pick - 36% difference
 
NUMBERICA said:
Tankathon. They HAVE to hit top-4 to keep their pick. Are you looking at the odds that they do NOT jump into the top-4? Because these are looking like inverses.
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They dont have to hit top 4. Its top 6 protected, so staying where they are right now if no one jumps them would also save their pick.

If they drop to 5th worst it improves their odds of keeping the pick dramatically though.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Tankathon. They HAVE to hit top-4 to keep their pick. Are you looking at the odds that they do NOT jump into the top-4? Because these are looking like inverses.
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How do they have to hit top-4 to keep their pick? If they hit 5th or 6th, they still keep their pick, don't they (top 6 protected)?

If they finish 5th in standings, they have 21.8% of hitting 5th or 6th in the lotto (in addition to their odds of hitting top 4). If they finish 6th worst, then they have an 8.6% chance of hitting 6th in the lotto.
 
KqWIN said:
POR is only 4 games out, the could honestly make it in. I think PHO has a better shot in a one game series vs MIN, but POR has been great lately and they have a chaotic style that could upset anyone on a given night.
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POR will actually try which is more than I can say for PHO. I don't think anyone on that team wants to extend the season. We just gotta hope Minny ends up in 9 and then loses in the second play in game imo or that they end up 7/8 and lose to the Kings somehow.

Basically I think we are hosed. Minny has a cupcake schedule to end the season. I think we have an 90%+ chance that pick is like 17-20 instead of 14
 
Jaanipoeg said:
If you're resigned to Cooper or bust, I'd get not even caring about 2nd or 3rd with New Orleans, but staying bottom 3 had pretty massive effects on our odds of getting Cooper
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Not to single you out, because I think you're a good poster and I've seen this type of argument from many other people, but I just can't get behind this kind of rhetoric about "massive effects."

I just want to hear someone who uses this kind of phrasing/thinking to use real numbers to try to explain how this difference (between 1 & 4, for example) is "massive." I'm fully prepared to respond with numbers as to why the effects are not "massive."
 
idiot said:
How do they have to hit top-4 to keep their pick? If they hit 5th or 6th, they still keep their pick, don't they (top 6 protected)?

If they finish 5th in standings, they have 21.8% of hitting 5th or 6th in the lotto (in addition to their odds of hitting top 4). If they finish 6th worst, then they have an 8.6% chance of hitting 6th in the lotto.
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I am dumb
 
NUMBERICA said:
What? The lotto is the top 4 picks. There is no jumping to 5th or 6th. That’s why Philly isn’t actually tanking, they have just given up.
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They don't have to get into the top 4 in order to get a 5th or 6th post-lottery draft slot (if they finish 5th or 6th pre-lottery). It's only if they finish 7th pre-lotto that they can only keep their pick if they move up to 1-4 in the lotto.

But they have plenty of possibility (given the standings now) to finish with a 5th or 6th (or maybe even 4th in a highly unlikely situation), so they're not at all locked out from a 5th or 6th post-lotto outcome yet.
 
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