What's new
By:

Obama Might Lose This

New polls show Romney up in CO by 1, FL by 1 and OH by 2.

That is the first time I have seen Romney up in OH.

Whoever wins I think it will be close. I can see CO, NC, NV, FL, VA, OH, NH, IA and maybe MI or WI all being decided by within 5%. Very close election.
 
franklin said:
Then you had better wait until they make their predictions.
Click to expand...

While no one, including traditional pollsters, has released a final prediction the quants are certainly making forecasts for a near-future event presently.

You keep saying 49 out of 50 & this cheapens what Nate Silver has been doing. Probably 40 or more states were easily predictable and only a portion of the rest were really worth speculating on. Saying he predicted 5 of 6 key states accurately is nothing more than a one off event. That's not where the beauty of his 2008 predictions lied anyway.
Click to expand...


You do realize that with the majority of this board I'm fighting a battle of why a simple average isn't an awesome metric right?

Do you really think the nuances of 2008's forecast timing, 2010's early accuracy, or talking about margins is really where this battle lies?
 
Stoked said:
New polls show Romney up in CO by 1, FL by 1 and OH by 2.

That is the first time I have seen Romney up in OH.

Whoever wins I think it will be close. I can see CO, NC, NV, FL, VA, OH, NH, IA and maybe MI or WI all being decided by within 5%. Very close election.
Click to expand...


Which polls are those? I thought Ohio has consistently been Obama this whole time?
 
Revolution 9 said:
Which polls are those? I thought Ohio has consistently been Obama this whole time?
Click to expand...

The CO is ARG, the FL is CNN and the OH is Ras.

Yes OH has been consistently about 2% for Obama. This is the first OH poll in Romneys favor. Just something new which is why I posted it.
 
Stoked said:
The CO is ARG, the FL is CNN and the OH is Ras.

Yes OH has been consistently about 2% for Obama. This is the first OH poll in Romneys favor. Just something new which is why I posted it.
Click to expand...

I hope it doesn't pan out that way. Obama needs Ohio in the worst way.
 
Revolution 9 said:
I hope it doesn't pan out that way. Obama needs Ohio in the worst way.
Click to expand...


They both do. If Mitt wins VA, NC, CO and FL and then OH he wins. If he loses OH then he needs to flip PA or MI and those are much harder for him. Or he could flip NV, NH ands WI but I doubt that.
 
Revolution 9 said:
I hope it doesn't pan out that way. Obama needs Ohio in the worst way.
Click to expand...

Don't you think it would be nice if this weren't the case every election? We need more swing states on both sides. Florida seems to be the sole reason we can't tackle the tough social security problem.
 
franklin said:
Don't you think it would be nice if this weren't the case every election? We need more swing states on both sides. Florida seems to be the sole reason we can't tackle the tough social security problem.
Click to expand...

We need to get rid of the elctoral college already. Seniors would still be important because of their high voting percentage and the candidates would actually give a **** about every voter.
 
Nate Silver: One Term Celebrity

https://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html

For all the confidence Silver puts in his predictions, he often gives the impression of hedging. Which, given all the variables involved in a presidential election, isn't surprising. For this reason and others — and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis. [and Kicky] — more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated.
Click to expand...
 
It is amusing how much the right wing media loved Silver back when he was predicting GOP landslides. Now there's articles out there saying you can't trust him because he's effeminate.
 
nightmare3983 said:
We need to get rid of the elctoral college already. Seniors would still be important because of their high voting percentage and the candidates would actually give a **** about every voter.
Click to expand...

Nah. Making the senate vote purely democratic opened the door for less decentralized control & more campaign finance necessity. Everything needs checks, including the electorate.


Sirkickyass said:
It is amusing how much the right wing media loved Silver back when he was predicting GOP landslides. Now there's articles out there saying you can't trust him because he's effeminate.
Click to expand...

He is kind of efeminate.

He's also a pretty funny guy. A month back or so I read an interview of him & he was pretty witty and a relaxed dude.
 
Just read an article that all the recent memos that have been released concerning the Benghazi attack were from the CIA. They did that in revenge for being thrown under the bus by the administration. Thoughts?
 
Stoked said:
Just read an article that all the recent memos that have been released concerning the Benghazi attack were from the CIA. They did that in revenge for being thrown under the bus by the administration. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Guess it depends on your perspective. There is nothing about the CIA that makes me ever want to trust them on anything.
 
Stoked said:
Just read an article that all the recent memos that have been released concerning the Benghazi attack were from the CIA. They did that in revenge for being thrown under the bus by the administration. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

The administration is their boss. If they did that then the responsible people should be fired.
 
franklin said:
Don't you think it would be nice if this weren't the case every election? We need more swing states on both sides. Florida seems to be the sole reason we can't tackle the tough social security problem.
Click to expand...

It needs to be looked at. It's sö tiring, and taxing on the people of Ohio, and other key swing states.
I can see the argument for both sides, but I think we should take another look at the popular vote(as well as campaign reform).
 
Dumb question, and apologies if it's already been mentioned here, but can someone tell me when it was during the last election that it became clear that Obama would win? Was it pretty apparent before the polls opened on election day?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top