I'm curious as to how the whole system works this fall. Let's say BYU goes undefeated. Where would they end up? We know that there is 0% chance they end up in the playoff. I don't care if everyone else has two losses. This whole system was set up to keep BYU/Boise St/other non P5 teams out. They won't let one in the first year. The fact that BYU has a weak SOS and no conference championship will keep them out. So, if BYU does go undefeated, where do they end up?
In 2004, Utah was #6. Boise St was #9.
In 2006, Boise was #8.
In 2008, Utah was #6.
In 2009, TCU was #4. Boise St was #6.
In 2010, TCU was #3. Boise St was #10.
In 2011, Boise St was #11.
What that means is that unless BYU is as highly regarded as TCU was in 2009 and 2010, they won't be in the playoff, even if undefeated. And I highly doubt BYU has the cache that TCU had those years. So, no playoff for undefeated BYU. The average ranking for an undefeated G5 team was #6. So, BYU ends the year ranked #6. Let's pretend best case scenario happens for BYU, and a repeat of 2007 happens and the top 10 look like this (except we will put BYU in at #6 instead of #12 where Hawaii was):
1 - Ohio State 11-1
2 - LSU 11-2
3 - Virginia Tech 11-2
4 - Oklahoma 11-2
5 - Georgia 10-2
6 - BYU 12-0
7 - Missouri 11-2
8 - USC 10-2
9 - West Virginia 10-2
10 - Hawaii 12-0
11 - ASU 10-2
12 - Florida 9-3
13 - Illinois 9-3
14 - Boston College 10-3
15 - Clemson 9-3
The top four play in the Rose Bowl and and Sugar Bowl.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Oklahoma
Here are the remaining rules that have to be satisfied:
1 - The highest ranked G5 team is in. This would be Hawaii.
2 - The P5 champions will get bowl births unless they are in the playoff. This means USC is guaranteed a spot.
3 - The Orange Bowl is ACC #1 vs SEC #2, Big 10 #2, or Notre Dame. This means that Georgia is in. One at large berth.
4 - The committee will try to create "the most compelling match ups possible" for the remaining spots.
So, here are the Bowl games and the auto bid teams:
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: At Large vs Georgia
Cotton Bowl: At Large vs At Large
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs Hawaii.
Peach Bowl: At Large vs At Large
Teams Guaranteed in: Hawaii, USC. Considering the "most compelling match ups possible" clause, USC and Hawaii probably both play in the Fiesta Bowl.
This leaves six spots open for these teams:
6 - BYU 12-0
7 - Missouri 11-2
9 - West Virginia 10-2
11 - ASU 10-2
12 - Florida 9-3
13 - Illinois 9-3
14 - Boston College 10-3
15 - Clemson 9-3
The Orange Bowl is locked into Georgia. They probably take West Virginia.
The Cotton Bowl is all Jerry, which means all south. Missouri vs Florida.
If you believe Colin Cowherd, the Fiesta is out for BYU. They take USC and Hawaii.
That leaves the Peach Bowl. They can take:
6 - BYU 12-0
11 - ASU
13 - Illinois
14 - Boston College
15 - Clemson
The Peach Bowl is in the South, so I'd bet Clemson gets in. Nationally, what is a more intriguing matchup? BYU vs Clemson or ASU vs Clemson? That is tough. It probably depends on who has the bigger "name". Whether or not Hill has an Heisman year or if he reverts back to last year.
So, BYU might be in if 2007 happens. Let's look at last year:
1 - FSU 13-0
2 - Auburn 12-1
3 - Alabama 11-1
4 - Michigan St 12-1
5 - Stanford 11-2
6 - BYU 12-0
7 - Baylor 11-1
8 - Ohio State 12-1
9 - Missouri 11-2
10 - South Carolina 10-2
11 - Oregon 10-2
12 - Oklahoma 10-2
13 - Clemson 10-2
14 - Oklahoma St 10-2
15 - UCF 11-1
So, we get this:
Rose Bowl: Michigan St vs Auburn
Sugar Bowl: Florida State vs Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: Ohio State vs Stanford
Cotton Bowl: Baylor vs Missouri/South Carolina
Peach Bowl:UCF vs
UCF is guaranteed a bowl birth. As is Stanford and Baylor. As is the #2 Big 10 team (Ohio State). That leaves these teams available for the four at large spots:
5 - Stanford 11-2
6 - BYU 12-0
9 - Missouri 11-2
10 - South Carolina 10-2
11 - Oregon 10-2
12 - Oklahoma 10-2
13 - Clemson 10-2
14 - Oklahoma St 10-2
Now, you know the Cotton Bowl is going to take an SEC team, because Jerry Jones is all about money. So, there goes Missouri or South Carolina. This leaves:
5 - Stanford 11-2
6 - BYU 12-0
11 - Oregon 10-2
12 - Oklahoma 10-2
13 - Clemson 10-2
14 - Oklahoma St 10-2
15 - UCF 11-1
We know Ohio State is guaranteed a spot in the Orange Bowl. The "most compelling matchup" for Ohio State is either Stanford or Oregon. I say Stanford goes here, because the Fiesta probably fights hard for Oregon. The Cotton Bowl takes Baylor and an SEC team (Missouri/South Carolina).
Next is the Fiesta Bowl. If you believe Colin Cowherd, BYU is automatically out here. They probably take Oregon and Oklahoma.
We are now left with these teams for the Peach Bowl:
6 - BYU 12-0
13 - Clemson 10-2
14 - Oklahoma St 10-2
15 - UCF 11-1
We know that UCF is guaranteed a spot in the bowl. Here is where BYU probably gets screwed. If you are the Peach Bowl, do you want two mid-majors? Do you want a mid-major that is from the West, that doesn't spend money? If you were the Peach Bowl, would you want BYU or would you want Clemson or Oklahoma State?
You probably take Clemson or Oklahoma State.
What's the point in all of this? Even if they go undefeated, it will be really, really, really hard to BYU to make the New Year's Bowls and not end up in Miami.