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2024-2025 Tank Race

I'm worried about the ramifications if we win the lottery. The media is going to assess our season and realize that this has been the biggest tank job in NBA history. We are far from the worst team in the NBA. There will again be calls to change the lottery system.

The incentive isn't necessarily the top pick, it's creating a floor for your pick. Our floor is now 5, which is great. They probably need to lottery off the top 10 picks instead of just the top 4.
 
The trick to fixing tanking is to put together a good team. I don't think that I ever gave a second thought to tanking when the Jazz were winning. Other than fans of 4 or 5 teams nobody else cares about tanking because those fans are just enjoying basketball.

I'm pretty sure that if the Jazz try to be this shameless next year, the League will introduce consequences.
 
AlaskanAssassin said:
I'm worried about the ramifications if we win the lottery. The media is going to assess our season and realize that this has been the biggest tank job in NBA history. We are far from the worst team in the NBA. There will again be calls to change the lottery system.

The incentive isn't necessarily the top pick, it's creating a floor for your pick. Our floor is now 5, which is great. They probably need to lottery off the top 10 picks instead of just the top 4.
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This wouldn't be a bad thing. Get the #1 pick and then roll. If we land the #1 pick it will get difficult to tank unless we sell off all the vets and only replace them with bad players/young players.
 
AlaskanAssassin said:
I'm worried about the ramifications if we win the lottery. The media is going to assess our season and realize that this has been the biggest tank job in NBA history. We are far from the worst team in the NBA. There will again be calls to change the lottery system.
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You kidding me? That would be awesome. If we win the lottery and get Flagg and then the NBA does something to discourage tanking after that then we are talking best case scenario. I hate tanking. But I really want us to get Flagg. In the situation you are worried about we get Flagg and an end to tanking.
Hooray.
 
Brsn said:
Chats thoughts on the worst place finally winning the lottery.

Regression to the Mean – Over a long enough period, the worst team should eventually win. Given that the draft lottery is unpredictable, it's reasonable to expect a worst-record team win within the next few years.

Prediction​

If we assume normal statistical distribution, the worst team is likely to win the No. 1 pick within the next 2-3 drafts (by 2026 or 2027). However, randomness plays a role, so it could happen as early as 2025 or as late as the end of the decade.
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If you flip a coin and it winds up tails 5 times in a row what's the odds it will wind up heads on the next flip? 50% is the answer. The odds the lottery will be won by the worst team is 14% that doesn't change because it's about time for it to happen.
 
fishonjazz said:
You kidding me? That would be awesome. If we win the lottery and get Flagg and then the NBA does something to discourage tanking after that then we are talking best case scenario. I hate tanking. But I really want us to get Flagg. In the situation you are worried about we get Flagg and an end to tanking.
Hooray.
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Definitely a good ending outcome. I just hate the stigma that comes with absurd levels of tanking, similar to what Philadelphia faced when they were not remotely trying to win and got Embiid. I think our tanking efforts have even exceeded what they did.
 
AlaskanAssassin said:
Definitely a good ending outcome. I just hate the stigma that comes with absurd levels of tanking, similar to what Philadelphia faced when they were not remotely trying to win and got Embiid. I think our tanking efforts have even exceeded what they did.
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true but they did it for what 3-4 years ?
 
fishonjazz said:
You kidding me? That would be awesome. If we win the lottery and get Flagg and then the NBA does something to discourage tanking after that then we are talking best case scenario. I hate tanking. But I really want us to get Flagg. In the situation you are worried about we get Flagg and an end to tanking.
Hooray.
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The championship at-all cost crowd never stops to amaze me. I think a good number of those folks would be extremely happy if their favorite team was awarded the championship via the executive order. Mission accomplished! It's like the entire idea of competing hard, playing by the rules, always trying to be your best is completely alien to them: they just want the card deck to be stacked as much as possible in their favor.
 
jazznik said:
The championship at-all cost crowd never stops to amaze me. I think a good number of those folks would be extremely happy if their favorite team was awarded the championship via the executive order. Mission accomplished! It's like the entire idea of competing hard, playing by the rules, always trying to be your best is completely alien to them: they just want the card deck to be stacked as much as possible in their favor.
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lol ok Karen
 
bopahull said:
If you flip a coin and it winds up tails 5 times in a row what's the odds it will wind up heads on the next flip? 50% is the answer. The odds the lottery will be won by the worst team is 14% that doesn't change because it's about time for it to happen.
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This is true and not true. Each flip is a 50% odds. However, the odds of getting, lets say 10 tails in a row, is 1/1024. Similarly, the odds each time are 14%. The longer it goes without the number 1 picking the more likely it is going to happen. Changing the coin flipping analogy to 14% odds. It would be a 1/34 million chance to not have the number one pick happen in 10 straight drafts.
 
kcgar said:
This is true and not true. Each flip is a 50% odds. However, the odds of getting, lets say 10 tails in a row, is 1/1024. Similarly, the odds each time are 14%. The longer it goes without the number 1 picking the more likely it is going to happen. Changing the coin flipping analogy to 14% odds. It would be a 1/34 million chance to not have the number one pick happen in 10 straight drafts.
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Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
kcgar said:
Yeah, I was wrong. The longer it goes the closer it gets is definitely a wrong statement. I should have just said that prior to the first pick, there is a 1/34 million chance of the number 1 spot not getting the pick in 10 straight drafts. Each pick is not dependent on any of the previous. My bad.
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Even though I understand it, it still doesn't feel right, lol.
 
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