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What can we take away from this season?

SoberasHotRod

SoberasHotRod

Well-Known Member
2025 Award Winner
I went through our entire schedule and found 10 games where we won or played very close (within 5 points) with good teams (playoff teams above .500). Here is a chart I created to look for patterns.

1742919832951.png

Here are a couple of thoughts:

- The majority (6/10) of these games happened in February.
- For many of the games (4/10) we had a huge rebounding advantage
- In 5/10 games Keyonte had an outlier performance
- Lauri or Collins were available in every game
- A lot of these good performances were despite having huge turnover differences

Anything else jump out to you?
 
A few takeaways from the season overall:
  • Kessler is a high-level rebounder, rim protector and rim finisher.
  • Keyonte is efficient enough when his usage and shot selection are dialed back. He’s a good shooter off the catch and off screens.
  • Filipowski is probably a stretch-4. His shooting and rebounding are up to par, while he lacks defensive presence.
  • John Collins is a valuable player. He spent at least half the season at 50-40-90.
  • Jazz’s other young players have serious issues.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I went through our entire schedule and found 10 games where we won or played very close (within 5 points) with good teams (playoff teams above .500). Here is a chart I created to look for patterns.

View attachment 18383

Here are a couple of thoughts:

- The majority (6/10) of these games happened in February.
- For many of the games (4/10) we had a huge rebounding advantage
- In 5/10 games Keyonte had an outlier performance
- Lauri or Collins were available in every game
- A lot of these good performances were despite having huge turnover differences

Anything else jump out to you?
Click to expand...
No one has worked harder than the Jazz for Cooper Flagg
 
I posted the PBP On/Off numbers for the rookie contract guys in another thread. Here are the numbers for our 2-ways/10day guys:

Net Rating:
Oscar(112min): On+12.8 Off -8.29 DIFF +21.09
KJ Martin (324 Min): On -16.55 Off -6.63 -9.92
Springer (83 min): On -9.52 Off -7.54 DIFF -1.98
Potter (583min): On -5.32 Off -8.03 DIFF +2.71
Harkless (138min): On 11.1 Off -8.34 DIFF +19.44
 
Collins is a warrior. Lauri has had a subpar season that we will probably never really know the reason for. Key has had his moments both good and horrible. Kessler is a solid piece. Collier and Flip are intriguing. Brice has had some good and some awful moments. Cody has been well discussed. Now the 64 million dollar question regarding the youngsters: Will they become solid NBA players or is the best we can hope for them is a Luka S, Bazely, Kenny, Yurt7 or Frank Jackson level of success?
 
Elizah Huge said:
Where would this rank overall in the NBA with a minimum of like 250 mins?
Click to expand...

53rd best 4 man lineup with at least 250 minutes out of 191 lineups that meet that criteria, or in about the top 25%

www.nba.com

Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.com

Ability to view statistics and advanced analytics for any combination of 5-man, 4-man, 3-man, or 2-man lineups that a team has played throughout the season. Lineup information dates back to the 2007-08 season.
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SoberasHotRod said:
53rd best 4 man lineup with at least 250 minutes out of 191 lineups that meet that criteria, or in about the top 25%

www.nba.com

Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.com

Ability to view statistics and advanced analytics for any combination of 5-man, 4-man, 3-man, or 2-man lineups that a team has played throughout the season. Lineup information dates back to the 2007-08 season.
www.nba.com www.nba.com
Click to expand...

The other way to look at it is there are only 13 teams in the NBA that have a better 4 man lineup than us.
 
Will post thoughts later, but gonna hijack this thread with some numbers. Will likely add more later/let me know if you'd like me to add or clarify anything. Sorry for formatting:

Pure RAPM Percentiles:
John Collins: 94 (Offense), 88 (Defense), 97 (Total)
Oscar Tshiebwe: 80 (Offense), 39 (Defense), 76 (Total)
Svi Mykhailiuk: 77 (Offense), 53 (Defense), 75 (Total)
KJ Martin: 75 (Offense), 26 (Defense), 66 (Total)
Collin Sexton: 76 (Offense), 32 (Defense), 70 (Total)
Elijah Harkless: 55 (Offense), 76 (Defense), 69 (Total)
Micah Potter: 63 (Offense), 58 (Defense), 64 (Total)
Walker Kessler: 60 (Offense), 59 (Defense), 62 (Total)
Lauri Markkanen: 71 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 45 (Total)
Taylor Hendricks: 29 (Offense), 66 (Defense), 38 (Total)
Jaden Springer: 14 (Offense), 81 (Defense), 31 (Total)
Jordan Clarkson: 23 (Offense), 24 (Defense), 17 (Total)
Kyle Filipowski: 32 (Offense), 9 (Defense), 15 (Total)
Isaiah Collier: 38 (Offense), 5 (Defense), 14 (Total)
Brice Sensabaugh: 36 (Offense), 1 (Defense), 5 (Total)
Johnny Juzang: 9 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 5 (Total)
Keyonte George: 54 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 3 (Total)
Cody Williams: 0 (Offense), 4 (Defense), 0 (Total)

xRAPM Percentiles

Walker Kessler: 77 (Offense), 88 (Defense), 87 (Total)
John Collins: 75 (Offense), 73 (Defense), 75 (Total)
Svi Mykhailiuk: 72 (Offense), 68 (Defense), 69 (Total)
Micah Potter: 41 (Offense), 67 (Defense), 53 (Total)
Taylor Hendricks: 48 (Offense), 64 (Defense), 55 (Total)
Jaden Springer: 48 (Offense), 60 (Defense), 53 (Total)
Lauri Markkanen: 94 (Offense), 54 (Defense), 84 (Total)
Elijah Harkless: 12 (Offense), 42 (Defense), 18 (Total)
Kyle Filipowski: 57 (Offense), 34 (Defense), 48 (Total)
Oscar Tshiebwe: 20 (Offense), 30 (Defense), 19 (Total)
KJ Martin: 61 (Offense), 29 (Defense), 46 (Total)
Johnny Juzang: 48 (Offense), 18 (Defense), 34 (Total)
Cody Williams: 12 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 10 (Total)
Jordan Clarkson: 37 (Offense), 12 (Defense), 22 (Total)
Isaiah Collier: 22 (Offense), 11 (Defense), 14 (Total)
Collin Sexton: 93 (Offense), 3 (Defense), 59 (Total)
Brice Sensabaugh: 62 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 17 (Total)
Keyonte George: 51 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 12 (Total)

EPM Actual

| Player Name | Offense | Defense | Total | eWins |
|-------------------|---------|---------|--------|---------|
| Walker Kessler | 0.06 | 1.54 | 1.60 | 5.16 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 1.68 | -0.59 | 1.09 | 4.08 |
| John Collins | 0.95 | -0.08 | 0.87 | 3.19 |
| Collin Sexton | 1.49 | -1.18 | 0.30 | 3.51 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | -0.51 | -0.23 | -0.74 | 0.18 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | -0.86 | -0.68 | -1.55 | 0.57 |
| Jaden Springer | -2.42 | 0.88 | -1.55 | 0.21 |
| Elijah Harkless | -2.47 | 0.69 | -1.78 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Clarkson | -0.51 | -1.29 | -1.80 | 0.78 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | -0.56 | -1.50 | -2.06 | 0.73 |
| Kyle Filipowski | -0.68 | -1.74 | -2.42 | 0.48 |
| Keyonte George | 0.12 | -2.71 | -2.59 | 0.50 |
| Johnny Juzang | -0.56 | -2.23 | -2.79 | 0.14 |
| Taylor Hendricks | -2.47 | -0.41 | -2.88 | 0.01 |
| Micah Potter | -2.29 | -0.64 | -2.93 | 0.03 |
| KJ Martin | -2.46 | -1.19 | -3.65 | -0.36 |
| Isaiah Collier | -3.01 | -1.73 | -4.73 | -1.90 |
| Josh Richardson | -3.98 | -1.15 | -5.13 | -0.15 |
| Cody Williams | -5.08 | -1.59 | -6.67 | -2.45 |

EPM Expected

| Player Name | OEPM | DEPM | EPM |
|---------------------|-------|-------|--------|
| Lauri Markkanen | 2.84 | -0.61 | 2.23 |
| John Collins | 1.37 | -0.25 | 1.12 |
| Walker Kessler | 0.02 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| Collin Sexton | 1.85 | -1.35 | 0.50 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 0.26 | -1.38 | -1.12 |
| Kyle Filipowski | -0.37 | -1.09 | -1.46 |
| Elijah Harkless | -2.12 | 0.46 | -1.66 |
| Jaden Springer | -2.61 | 0.93 | -1.68 |
| Johnny Juzang | -0.44 | -1.76 | -2.20 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | -1.49 | -0.90 | -2.39 |
| Taylor Hendricks | -1.60 | -0.87 | -2.47 |
| Keyonte George | -0.23 | -2.36 | -2.59 |
| Josh Richardson | -1.99 | -0.64 | -2.63 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | -0.89 | -1.79 | -2.68 |
| David Jones Garcia | -2.11 | -0.66 | -2.77 |
| Micah Potter | -2.02 | -0.78 | -2.81 |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | -2.55 | -0.75 | -3.30 |
| Isaiah Collier | -2.21 | -1.17 | -3.38 |
| Jason Preston | -2.09 | -1.54 | -3.63 |
| Cody Williams | -4.29 | -1.60 | -5.90 |
 
SoberasHotRod said:
The other way to look at it is there are only 13 teams in the NBA that have a better 4 man lineup than us.
Click to expand...
And those 13 teams probably weren't trying to lose all season.
 
KqWIN said:
Will post thoughts later, but gonna hijack this thread with some numbers. Will likely add more later/let me know if you'd like me to add or clarify anything. Sorry for formatting:

Pure RAPM Percentiles:
John Collins: 94 (Offense), 88 (Defense), 97 (Total)
Oscar Tshiebwe: 80 (Offense), 39 (Defense), 76 (Total)
Svi Mykhailiuk: 77 (Offense), 53 (Defense), 75 (Total)
KJ Martin: 75 (Offense), 26 (Defense), 66 (Total)
Collin Sexton: 76 (Offense), 32 (Defense), 70 (Total)
Elijah Harkless: 55 (Offense), 76 (Defense), 69 (Total)
Micah Potter: 63 (Offense), 58 (Defense), 64 (Total)
Walker Kessler: 60 (Offense), 59 (Defense), 62 (Total)
Lauri Markkanen: 71 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 45 (Total)
Taylor Hendricks: 29 (Offense), 66 (Defense), 38 (Total)
Jaden Springer: 14 (Offense), 81 (Defense), 31 (Total)
Jordan Clarkson: 23 (Offense), 24 (Defense), 17 (Total)
Kyle Filipowski: 32 (Offense), 9 (Defense), 15 (Total)
Isaiah Collier: 38 (Offense), 5 (Defense), 14 (Total)
Brice Sensabaugh: 36 (Offense), 1 (Defense), 5 (Total)
Johnny Juzang: 9 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 5 (Total)
Keyonte George: 54 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 3 (Total)
Cody Williams: 0 (Offense), 4 (Defense), 0 (Total)

xRAPM Percentiles

Walker Kessler: 77 (Offense), 88 (Defense), 87 (Total)
John Collins: 75 (Offense), 73 (Defense), 75 (Total)
Svi Mykhailiuk: 72 (Offense), 68 (Defense), 69 (Total)
Micah Potter: 41 (Offense), 67 (Defense), 53 (Total)
Taylor Hendricks: 48 (Offense), 64 (Defense), 55 (Total)
Jaden Springer: 48 (Offense), 60 (Defense), 53 (Total)
Lauri Markkanen: 94 (Offense), 54 (Defense), 84 (Total)
Elijah Harkless: 12 (Offense), 42 (Defense), 18 (Total)
Kyle Filipowski: 57 (Offense), 34 (Defense), 48 (Total)
Oscar Tshiebwe: 20 (Offense), 30 (Defense), 19 (Total)
KJ Martin: 61 (Offense), 29 (Defense), 46 (Total)
Johnny Juzang: 48 (Offense), 18 (Defense), 34 (Total)
Cody Williams: 12 (Offense), 14 (Defense), 10 (Total)
Jordan Clarkson: 37 (Offense), 12 (Defense), 22 (Total)
Isaiah Collier: 22 (Offense), 11 (Defense), 14 (Total)
Collin Sexton: 93 (Offense), 3 (Defense), 59 (Total)
Brice Sensabaugh: 62 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 17 (Total)
Keyonte George: 51 (Offense), 0 (Defense), 12 (Total)

EPM Actual

| Player Name | Offense | Defense | Total | eWins |
|-------------------|---------|---------|--------|---------|
| Walker Kessler | 0.06 | 1.54 | 1.60 | 5.16 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 1.68 | -0.59 | 1.09 | 4.08 |
| John Collins | 0.95 | -0.08 | 0.87 | 3.19 |
| Collin Sexton | 1.49 | -1.18 | 0.30 | 3.51 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | -0.51 | -0.23 | -0.74 | 0.18 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | -0.86 | -0.68 | -1.55 | 0.57 |
| Jaden Springer | -2.42 | 0.88 | -1.55 | 0.21 |
| Elijah Harkless | -2.47 | 0.69 | -1.78 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Clarkson | -0.51 | -1.29 | -1.80 | 0.78 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | -0.56 | -1.50 | -2.06 | 0.73 |
| Kyle Filipowski | -0.68 | -1.74 | -2.42 | 0.48 |
| Keyonte George | 0.12 | -2.71 | -2.59 | 0.50 |
| Johnny Juzang | -0.56 | -2.23 | -2.79 | 0.14 |
| Taylor Hendricks | -2.47 | -0.41 | -2.88 | 0.01 |
| Micah Potter | -2.29 | -0.64 | -2.93 | 0.03 |
| KJ Martin | -2.46 | -1.19 | -3.65 | -0.36 |
| Isaiah Collier | -3.01 | -1.73 | -4.73 | -1.90 |
| Josh Richardson | -3.98 | -1.15 | -5.13 | -0.15 |
| Cody Williams | -5.08 | -1.59 | -6.67 | -2.45 |

EPM Expected

| Player Name | OEPM | DEPM | EPM |
|---------------------|-------|-------|--------|
| Lauri Markkanen | 2.84 | -0.61 | 2.23 |
| John Collins | 1.37 | -0.25 | 1.12 |
| Walker Kessler | 0.02 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| Collin Sexton | 1.85 | -1.35 | 0.50 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 0.26 | -1.38 | -1.12 |
| Kyle Filipowski | -0.37 | -1.09 | -1.46 |
| Elijah Harkless | -2.12 | 0.46 | -1.66 |
| Jaden Springer | -2.61 | 0.93 | -1.68 |
| Johnny Juzang | -0.44 | -1.76 | -2.20 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | -1.49 | -0.90 | -2.39 |
| Taylor Hendricks | -1.60 | -0.87 | -2.47 |
| Keyonte George | -0.23 | -2.36 | -2.59 |
| Josh Richardson | -1.99 | -0.64 | -2.63 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | -0.89 | -1.79 | -2.68 |
| David Jones Garcia | -2.11 | -0.66 | -2.77 |
| Micah Potter | -2.02 | -0.78 | -2.81 |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | -2.55 | -0.75 | -3.30 |
| Isaiah Collier | -2.21 | -1.17 | -3.38 |
| Jason Preston | -2.09 | -1.54 | -3.63 |
| Cody Williams | -4.29 | -1.60 | -5.90 |
Click to expand...
What's the difference between RAPM and xRAPM?
 
1. Kessler is very good. Cornerstone piece if we keep him.

2. IMO, there are no other sacred cows on the roster
 
bigmike said:
1. Kessler is very good. Cornerstone piece if we keep him.

2. IMO, there are no other sacred cows on the roster
Click to expand...
I don’t think Kessler is a “sacred cow” either. The effectiveness of players like him have been contextual for more than a decade. The best version of Walker is Gobert and the main concern with him is that you can play him off the floor and you can’t devote that kind of salary/minutes/reliance on a player like that while having serious championship aspirations.

How the Clippers use Zubac is essentially how you use Walker as a contender, so what are we willing to pay a guy that probably plays 20-28 minutes per game in the playoffs? I think his next contract is a huge, huge looming issue.
 
What I take away from this season is that we actually have a long, LONG way to go. We basically have 0 good, well-rounded players. Everyone is basically only effective on one side of the floor if effective at all, most of those players are neutral defenders at best, and we are missing any mentionable connective tissue. We don’t even know if we have any 3&D guys or glue guys. Our only good ballhandler/playmaker can’t shoot, our second-best passer is probably a rookie big who can’t currently defend.

That the Jazz actually suck should come as no surprise when you look at the record, but I think a lot of us have been laboring under a delusion if we think we’re going to make any real noise within the next five years unless we get insanely lucky.
 
NUMBERICA said:
I don’t think Kessler is a “sacred cow” either. The effectiveness of players like him have been contextual for more than a decade. The best version of Walker is Gobert and the main concern with him is that you can play him off the floor and you can’t devote that kind of salary/minutes/reliance on a player like that while having serious championship aspirations.

How the Clippers use Zubac is essentially how you use Walker as a contender, so what are we willing to pay a guy that probably plays 20-28 minutes per game in the playoffs? I think his next contract is a huge, huge looming issue.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, he's definitely not. I'd like to keep him but would I include him in a trade for SGA or Jokic? Yes, lol.
 
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