Trades for/out of #1

fishonjazz said:

I am a huge believer in Flagg. I give him about a 15-20% chance that he will ever be a top 5 player in the league in a season.
That's rarified air. 15-20% chance is an amazing prospect.

Just curious, what percentage would you give him? I think this is an interesting question and I would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Fwiw I give wemby (sans health issues) a little better odds at becoming a top 5 player.

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Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.

fishonjazz said:

I am a huge believer in Flagg. I give him about a 15-20% chance that he will ever be a top 5 player in the league in a season.
That's rarified air. 15-20% chance is an amazing prospect.

Just curious, what percentage would you give him? I think this is an interesting question and I would love to hear other people's thoughts.

Fwiw I give wemby (sans health issues) a little better odds at becoming a top 5 player.

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Personally I think Flagg is an amazing prospect because I think his floor is so high. I would be very surprised if he isn't a borderline all star/top 30 player for the majority of his career.

I think he has a high ceiling, I'm really not sure how high. The main reason I believe in his ceiling is his competitiveness. On the other hand it is very unlikely for anyone to become a top 5 player, so I think I would go with 10%.

NUMBERICA said:

Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.

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this is where i'm at as well I just don't see how a guy that big stays healthy, it'd be unprecedented

The most obvious answer is Jokic. He is growing unhappy in Denver and is locked in the long-term contract. If the Jazz get the 1st pick and Flagg they can trade Flagg + Kessler + Sexton + fillers for Jokic. The Jazz get to immediately jump into contention with the core of Jokic-Markkanen-Collins, young players and whoever they can bring in for the picks. The Nuggets can reload and build around the young players in Flagg-Kessler-MPJ, while Sexton and moved to the bench Gordon will fix their bench scoring.

NUMBERICA said:

Flagg could be argued as an equal or better prospect because his body is (way) more likely to hold up over time.

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Ya but since we are talking hypotheticals here I'm comparing the two prospects based on both staying healthy.
I have healthy wemby over healthy Flagg

SoberasHotRod said:

What do you mean by "pretty likely?", as in what percentage would you put on Flagg brimming becoming a top 5 player? The other thing to consider, per your post, is how likely is that to happen within his first 4 to 5 years?

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Perhaps misspoke and should have said “has a good chance”. Which yeah is probably something like 15%. Lot of things can happen.

Think that’s about 5x better of a chance than the #2 pick.

Rookie contract is 4 years, then in the last year you can give them a 5 year extension nobody else can, so you have 8 years to build around them before they are likely to leave. If he’s “the guy” those last few years are where you can win it all. If you’re close, maybe he stays.

The chance it all pans out and we win a championship in that period is still really low. I think it’s about twice as likely though as being able to assemble a championship roster around a guy in Utah in 2 years. I think the chances are much better in 3 years. If you can find a guy like that to trade for that still has 3 years on his contract I’d probably think that was a good trade.

If the Jazz land the #1 pick, it's hard to imagine them trading it away—especially if Cooper Flagg is available. He's the kind of franchise-changing talent you build around. Unless a team offers someone like Jokic or Giannis, I don't see Utah moving that pick. Even then, it would be a tough call.

If they're sitting at #2–4, trading up would be tough. Whoever holds the top pick likely wants Flagg just as badly. It would take a massive offer—probably more than the Jazz should give up at this stage. Better to stay put and grab the best player available.

In short, if Utah gets #1, they keep it. If not, they probably don't have the leverage to move up.

We are not ready to go for it imho. Even with Jokic.

I take the #1 with Cooper.

Jazz are not getting #1. Watch one of the low odd teams that could net the highest ratings (Spurs, Miami, or more likely Dallas as a thank you for putting Luka in LA). League #s are down and they want as high as ratings going into the new tv deals. Would not be surprised in the least.

Conspiracy would say Dallas gets it. Note that when Cleveland lost lebron, the Cavs gore the #1 pick in Kyrie the following season.

Also, the year after hurricane Katrina Anthony Davis went to... you got it. N'leans.

Luka exiting Dallas was the biggest news in the league sending Shockwaves. If conspiracy theorists win out...