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It's cherry picking in a sense, of course. But it's cherry picking because I think it's the exact pattern most of us (me included) hope to obtain with this tank. Isn't it worth knowing how things have gone recently in producing this pattern? We're not out here talking much about how we can...

I'm glad you're responding with real (and good) data. I do think more recent data matters more than older data. It's a different league in many ways than it was for the generation drafted in the 20th century. But we'll have to wait 20 more years to see if the tide turns once again more toward...

Yeah, probably no better time for Alex to leave.

I don't think I'm overlooking anything. I don't disagree with anything you say here. I'm actually totally with you and others like @SoberasHotRod and @KqWIN (though I clearly annoy him and others). I think you guys perfectly understand what's at stake. Tanking is a valid tool, one that's...

Does this bit of data help you all feel better? I wouldn't want anyone to lose faith in the prevailing (mostly data-free, beyond that it's better in a vacuum to have higher odds and higher picks) narrative about the value of tanking: Out of the past 25 NBA champions, 8 of the teams (nearly 1/3)...

We're hoping that a bottom-5 finish allows us to draft up a player who can eventually become the top player on a championship team for us. Though it's hard to think soberly about this with the narrative that tanking is self-evidently the best path to a championship (or only path for small...

Yes, you didn't use "massive". Apologies if I implied that you did. But the argument that we're both participating in started with a post that did use that term so I felt the issue was still in play.

I'd argue that this is the wrong way to see it. The difference of 3.5% is the same whether it's 1% vs 4.5%, 76% vs 79.5%, or 10.5% vs. 14%. Having the odds go your way with just a 3.5% better chance is not nothing (and thus we're still tanking), but it's simply a small difference and is far...

I think the point (at least for me) is that just saying "best odds" is not a good justification for then moving to "massive effects." The difference between best and 2nd best odds is not always "massive." And I'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where the difference is best labeled...

Yeah, didn't see that until after I had posted -- sorry.

They don't have to get into the top 4 in order to get a 5th or 6th post-lottery draft slot (if they finish 5th or 6th pre-lottery). It's only if they finish 7th pre-lotto that they can only keep their pick if they move up to 1-4 in the lotto. But they have plenty of possibility (given the...

Not to single you out, because I think you're a good poster and I've seen this type of argument from many other people, but I just can't get behind this kind of rhetoric about "massive effects." I just want to hear someone who uses this kind of phrasing/thinking to use real numbers to try to...

How do they have to hit top-4 to keep their pick? If they hit 5th or 6th, they still keep their pick, don't they (top 6 protected)? If they finish 5th in standings, they have 21.8% of hitting 5th or 6th in the lotto (in addition to their odds of hitting top 4). If they finish 6th worst, then...

Not sure where you're getting your percentages from. Going from Tankathon, I get them at 63.9% if they finish 5th worst (possible, though probably not likely). At 6th they'd be at 43.4%. Even if they stay at 7th, they have 34.5% odds of keeping their pick. You're not calculating as if the...

Sure, I'm for this.

Appropriately stated in the tank thread, since gaining the ultimate spoils of tanking, imo, involves even more (or at least as much) luck than the luck involved in winning a championship.

I'm both surprised and not surprised that nobody here seems to have either noticed or cared that Hardy was very unhappy after the game yesterday, largely with the level of defensive effort/attention to detail. Especially angry about how easy it was for Olynyk and Zion in the paint. Went on a...

Yeah, I was thinking this, too.

reliable defense

Raptors kindly keeping it hard for us to fall to 5th worst record.