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40 is a an okay sample, but we're not getting 40 of anything. We're talking about 1 or 2 picks. That's the heart of this issue.

Been there, done that. Got Dante and honestly, **** Dante. I wish we had just traded that pick for anything.

Which is exactly what I detest about tanking. Small samples suck because outliers mean more. I'd be willing to bet my house that Walker Kessler will hit at least 50 of his next 100 free throws, but I would obviously not be willing to risk my house that he will hit one out of his next two. The...

It's not a binary choice, though. There are other ways. The way we've used to build every Jazz team worth anything the past 40 years, for example. Work with what you have, identify talent, obtain it by any means necessary. The Jazz have had fewer top 5 picks during their existence than I...

There's a difference between where MVP level players are drafted and overall draft, specifically because it is a much smaller sample. It doesn't necessarily average itself out as a larger sample would. It's much more of a crapshoot, as you're refusing to acknowledge. Yes, Nikola and Brunson...

Do you figure a lack of #1 picks winning in the past decade(or in the foreseeable future) is an outlier or a reflection that the draft and the NBA are fundamentally different now than they were 40 years ago?

You're the one who narrowed it down to franchise cornerstones, not me. You're just moving the goalposts now, and you're not even providing any numbers. Not that it matters all that much. All these numbers and math. This isn't a video game; this is real life. Of course tanking 2-3 more...

This. The numbers seem to suggest that while a higher pick does improve your chances of finding your stud, being able to identify talent is the more important factor. If you've got 5-6 lottery picks and you can't find your All-NBA franchise cornerstone with those, what difference will...

Ok, let's look at this the other way then. In the past 30 years, the average spot where the NBA MVP was picked has been 9. Last decade, it's trended lower and it's 17. Of course, Jokić repeating skews that, but a number one pick hasn't won the MVP in more than a decade. Nor has anyone picked...

They just won a 4-3 first round series against a 47-win team who can't shoot worth crap in 2024. Not sure how any of this is vindicating.

I was going to make a comment about how during Jalil Okafor's 6 years in the NBA, the best Okafor in the league was Emeka...and he missed 5.5 of those years with a back injury. But you know, low hanging fruit and all.

I didn't say Embiid was just luck. I'm saying you gotta do better than hit one of the 8 or so lottery picks you've had. Else everything is bad luck. Okafor being garbage is bad luck.

The reason they're GMs and you and I are some dudes on the internet is that they should know better than us. Including doing due diligence on stuff like that.

It's no luck at all, they just drafted horribly.

And let's be honest, the only reason it even worked as well as it did was that the Wolves and the Bucks took Wiggins and Parker over Embiid.

The curse of Rudy. Having the greatest interior defender of this millennium meant that not only did the front office trade away anyone who could play defense without replacing them, they also gave the green light to those who stayed to stop playing defense. It boggles the mind to think that...

This. The Jazz simply went from one extreme to another. The Houston series laid bare the lack shooting and scoring in general on the team and the front office overreacted and then built a team that was all shooting and no defense. Guys like Thabo, Ekpe, Crowder, Favors, and even Allen and...

I see he's looking like a poor man's Hayward now.

Man, the Wolves are idiots. Taking a 3-time DPOY and surrounding him with dudes who can play defense instead of just a bunch of shooters. Who does that?