Watching Oden and Beasley contributing for the Heat right now makes me even more inclined to say they're going to three-peat.
In the ECF last season Wade was a useless gimp, except for game 7. Didn't he have a game where he recorded more TO's than points? Well, they're doing a much better job of resting him for the post season. He'll be ready this time.
Another major reason (maybe the biggest reason) Indiana was able to take Miami to 7 games was the inability of Miami to defend Hibbert (that was the only stretch of his career of scoring 20+ points in 5 consecutive games), but now they have Oden. If he gets healthy enough to defend Hibbert... he would solve what is essentially their only flaw as a team.
I can see Miami getting past Indiana, even if they aren't at full strength (though, Indiana would have a very good chance), but if they're healthy (see: Wade; Oden), you'll see Miami beat Indiana again. And it won't take 7 games this time.