Game Thread Feb 07, 2025 08:00PM MT: Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns

[HermanG]

Everything that you said could be said about almost every other star players. All of them get planned against and focused on, many of them are on bad teams and/or playing sporadically. But you know what? They deliver in the clutch: that comes along with being a star and the leader of your team.

And, btw, Lauri did get the ball often in the last minutes of the 4th/OT last night: he was simply unable to capitalize on it and the team ended up being carried in the clutch by the young players, Collier and Keyonte. At the same time, the leading players on Suns, Booker and Allen, came through big in the clutch and the team won because of that.

Here are the clutch stats of Lauri this year:

Points - 2.1 (4th on the team)
Rebounds - 0.5 (8th)
Assists - 0.1 (11th)
FG% - 30% (7th)
3P% - 27% (5th)

Are these the stats of the team leader on the max salary?! Game after game Lauri underdelivers and disappears at the end when it matters. And it is not even a recent thing: he was far from being dominant at the end of close games last year as well.

What a dumbass take. Lauri is Klay, not Steph.

He isnt carrying his team through playoff series by himself. He is the guy who supports the #1 and can save games if your #1 is having a bad game. His main thing however is to be a threat that cannot be ignored, which disallows other teams to just focus on the #1.

Setting standards according to superstar level criteria to a guy who is as clear of a #2 as Lauri is just dumb. He also isnt even on a full max deal. He is on a "co-star" contract, as he should be.

 

[jazznik]

The team got collectively worse last year as the season went on so it doesn’t surprise me why he also got worse. It’s funny how you list negative stats without considering why he may be trending down. It’s not black and white as you suggest.

What exactly is your overall point because I’m not sure what it is and I feel like you don’t either?

First, regardless if the team is getting better or worse the star players on the team continue play like star players. Meanwhile Lauri during the clutch time simply disappears: he is not scoring, not rebounding and not passing. And when he is scoring, he is simply horrendous: 4th on the team in scoring at 30%- 27% splits.

Since you name-checked other bad teams lets look at what other stars there doing in the clutch (and very few of them are max players like Lauri):

Toronto - RJ Barret 1st in points (39% -29%), Scottie Barns - 2nd (44%-50%)
Chicago - LaVine is 1st (35%- 27%), Vucevic - 3rd (55%-38%)
Charlotte - LaMelo is 1st (38%-25%)
Pelicans - CJ McColum is 1st (45%-43%), Williamson - 4th (50%)
Brooklyn - Cam Thomas is 1st (44%-40%)

As you can see the leaders of other bad teams do not disappear but are coming through in the clutch. And all of that despite the fact that many of them are also second-options on good teams at best. Unlike other star players on bad teams Lauri simply disappears at the end of close games and when he is trying to score he is way worse then them at 30%-27%. And it is not only evident when you look at other teams: every single other Jazz leader was usually the leading scorer in the clutch: Mitchell, Al Jefferson, Hayward, Deron Williams. Gobert was not but he rebounded and defended like crazy in those minutes - unlike Lauri.

And no, I don't have any solutions. I just expressed my belief that Lauri is not playing as a max player and the leader of the team should. And that he will not magically get better in the clutch or in the playoffs if the team gets a better 1st option. He does not drive to the rack, he does not exploit mismatches. Since Lauri never played in the playoffs his production in the clutch is probably the best approximation of his potential playoff production and efficiency. If all that he can contribute in those minutes is making wide-open threes then the Jazz can easily find someone much cheaper to play that role.

 

[jazznik]

His main thing however is to be a threat that cannot be ignored, which disallows other teams to just focus on the #1.

You can find that kind of players for way less than the max. You just described someone like Grayson Allen or Deni Avdija. Both of them make 15 million per year.

 

[HermanG]

You can find that kind of players for way less than the max. You just described someone like Grayson Allen or Deni Avdija. Both of them make 15 million per year.

If Grayson Allen was a 7 footer with Lauri's level of athleticism and true 3 level scoring ability then he wouldn't be a 15 million guy. Problem for Grayson though is almost any NBA player can guard him if the team they are playing just decides to shut him down. But teams wont plan for him any more than they plan for any great shooter.

Deni Avdija on the other hand is a career 32.9% 3 point shooter on 3.3 attempts per game.... so I dont kow what color of mushrooms you are on for bringing him up.

 

[jazznik]

Problem for Grayson though is almost any NBA player can guard him if the team they are playing just decides to shut him down. But teams wont plan for him any more than they plan for any great shooter.

Well, you are actually is making my case here: it is exactly what is happening with Lauri this year: "almost any NBA player can guard him if the team they are playing just decides to shut him down". He is putting big numbers in the regular season on a bad team since there is little resistance. But when the other team starts to caring and defending, i.e. in the clutch time, the leading scorer Markkanen suddenly shrinks to the 4th scorer on the 30%-27% splits.

And more case in point, it what is happened in the game that the thread was started about: the max player Lauri did not score at all in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter (except for making free throws after being intentionally fouled with 0.2 seconds left). Instead it was Collier, Collins, Kessler and Keyonte who scored: that is, everybody but Lauri did. And again, in the OT Markkanen did not score at all being 0-4. Meanwhile Allen did score crucial buckets or assists in the clutch. And it is not the only game: Allen has 54%-50% splits in the clutch time for the season.

But I think that this discussion will benefit from a dedicated topic. I am going to open it.

 

[Tanktastic]

Clutch stats are ******** and basically just variance.

Yeah, Grayson Allen. Last year he was 23/23 %. The season before with the Bucks 50/50, year before that 25/29.

Booker is 27/20 this year, last year 46/18. KD is 50/24 this year.

Lauri was 48/39 last year, 43/40 the year before, 50/44 with the Cavs.

There is very little correlation year-on-year. Clutch stats are basically worthless for a single season and of marginal value over a player's whole career / something like minimum five seasons of data.