latin jazz
Well-Known Member
In today's chat there was a lot of Jazz related questions. He is no Zach Lowe but some might be interested in what he had to say.
https://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/49757
Here are the Q&A so you don't have to go through the whole chat:
Can you explain to me why the Jazz insist on playing Richard Jefferson 30-40 min a night. Not only is his PER low and numbers bad - but his dominating time at the 3 is forcing Hayward to develop out of position as a 2 and is limiting Burks to smaller minutes off the bench. Am I missing something?
Why are you assuming Gordon Hayward's natural position is small forward? The Jazz were better with him at shooting guard last year, if I recall correctly.
In my estimation, the Jazz don't have anyone on their roster that can be a 1st or 2nd option on a good team. Am I too pessimistic?
I think this can be overstated. For example, the Pacers might be the best team in the league. Who's their second option? I think Gordon Hayward could be as good as that player, certainly.
Is the Jazz's absurd record disparity with Burke (10-8 when he plays starters' minutes) and without (1-16 when he doesn't/sits) due to his play or is it more a function of timing/team growth (1-14 start to the season, 10-10 since)?
Some of it is noise. The Jazz are 10-11 in his starts but have been outscored by 5.4 points per game, which would typically translate to something like a 7-14 record. Replacing Enes Kanter with Marvin Williams is also a factor. The rest is how much better Burke is than his backups.
I can tell you aren't very high on the Cavs, but here it seems like we should be excited about the young core. Would going after Deng, Granger, Hayward, or Turner this offseason be worth the money spent?
I think Hayward would make sense because he's young enough to grow with the rest of the core. I would not go after a player on the wrong side of 27, or Turner since he's simply not that good.
Is it realistic to hope for a career comparable to that of Mike Bibby's for Trey Burke?
It's hope! You can do better than that!
Isn't the problem for the Jazz at this point is that they have 2-3 players now (Hayward, Favors, maybe Burks) who could be core starter on a contending team, but none of them are a franchise level #1?
Depending what you think of next year's draft, that's a feature.
Should Jazz fans be legitimately worried that they are going to play themselves out of the top 5 of this draft? That would be a horrific outcome. It also makes me hate the draft lottery. This is a young team that is improving as the season goes along and should absolutely be rewarded with a chance to get a decent pick but will probably get out-tanked.
Answering your question with a question: Are the Jazz really one of the five teams in the league most in need of a star player?. But also, Utah still finishes in the top 5 in 80% of my simulations of the season, so I think this concern is somewhat overstated because of the point differential/record disconnect with Burke I mentioned earlier
Do you think the Jazz should trade Gordon Hayward? He's not worth the money he was asking for and another team will undoubtedly overpay him this summer? Wouldn't it be better to get assets out of him instead of overpaying him or letting him walk? If they did trade him, What's his value?
If another team would definitely value him at that level, what makes you certain it's overpaying?
Jazz are winning with Trey Burke. Does Corbin get the coincidental credit and keep his job next season? Or does Dennis Lindsey pull the plug regardless?
However that decision is made, I don't think it will be primarily about wins and losses.
Any all-stars going to come out of the 2013 class?
I think Michael Carter-Williams has an excellent chance to reach that level. Giannis Antetokounmpo might be next most likely. Trey Burke is going to have a tough time only because there's so many other good young PGs in the West.
If you are Lindsey, do you try to move Marvin Williams or Richard Jefferson at the deadline? They seem to be helping the jazz win games (not good) and may be able to attract some assets.
I'm sure the Jazz will try. I'm not certain there will be much interest since the supply of role players this season exceeds the demand.
I've heard/read of people saying that it is good for rookies to have turnovers and have no idea what they are referring to. Is that legit? Is there any correlation between rookie turnovers and future success? (Our rook T Burke has a nice TO/Ratio so I'm curious if there is anything to this).
All other things equal, rookies with high turnover rates tend to have more room for improvement. Of course, all other things are not always equal, so Burke's solid play thus far is more meaningful.
You seem quick to defend Brian Shaw because of the 'situation' he inherited but don't recall you being so understanding with Ty Corbin. He was handed a sinking ship -- management traded their best player; then the lockout season, then a roster of expiring contracts vs. young players to develop; now a bunch of young guys. They've essentially come within a game or two of projections every season, but somehow all the numbers guys (incl. you?) think he's not a very good coach. What gives?
I think you may be confusing the numbers guys with Jazz fans, who are of course very vocal with their opinion of Tyrone Corbin. Evaluating coaches is extraordinarily difficult, and Corbin is a uniquely difficult coach. I think you've hit on a good point that when you look at the big picture the conclusion on Corbin is very different than when you analyze decision by decision from a micro perspective. A couple of years ago, Neil Paine evaluated coaches based on how players exceeded expectations that season and Corbin came out near the top of the league: https://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2224. At the same time, we know pretty well that coaches have more impact on defense than offense, and Corbin's defenses have never been very good. And while you're tempted to write that off to personnel, Steve Clifford has somehow built a top-five defense around Al Jefferson. Then there's also the matter of player development, which is really the more important task for Corbin over his tenure in Utah. Have young players gotten enough opportunity? I'm not sure. It's hard to tell without knowing what they're doing in practice. Is Corbin any different than the typical coach in this regard? I know that the list of coaches who get credit for how they handle young players is a lot shorter than the list that get criticized for it. So is this an issue with a specific coach or a disconnect between fans and coaches in general?. Unfortunately, I've got more questions than answers. But hopefully that lays out a bit of my thought process.
I appreciate the thoughtful answer on Corbin. I agree that evaluating coaches is very difficult. Maybe it wasn't you that was not a fan of Corbin, but I know for a fact that Hollinger was pretty critical. Jazz fans too of course, but most of them also wanted to run Sloan out of town until around oh, I don't know, '97 or so. I wish young/first-time coaches were given a little more time to "develop" before they were judged, but alas, I understand that's what people do, especially sports fans.
And I certainly have been critical at times, but yeah, we forget that coaches have development curves just as players do. In general, the number of fans who are unhappy with their coach far exceeds the number who are satisfied.
https://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/49757
Here are the Q&A so you don't have to go through the whole chat:
Can you explain to me why the Jazz insist on playing Richard Jefferson 30-40 min a night. Not only is his PER low and numbers bad - but his dominating time at the 3 is forcing Hayward to develop out of position as a 2 and is limiting Burks to smaller minutes off the bench. Am I missing something?
Why are you assuming Gordon Hayward's natural position is small forward? The Jazz were better with him at shooting guard last year, if I recall correctly.
In my estimation, the Jazz don't have anyone on their roster that can be a 1st or 2nd option on a good team. Am I too pessimistic?
I think this can be overstated. For example, the Pacers might be the best team in the league. Who's their second option? I think Gordon Hayward could be as good as that player, certainly.
Is the Jazz's absurd record disparity with Burke (10-8 when he plays starters' minutes) and without (1-16 when he doesn't/sits) due to his play or is it more a function of timing/team growth (1-14 start to the season, 10-10 since)?
Some of it is noise. The Jazz are 10-11 in his starts but have been outscored by 5.4 points per game, which would typically translate to something like a 7-14 record. Replacing Enes Kanter with Marvin Williams is also a factor. The rest is how much better Burke is than his backups.
I can tell you aren't very high on the Cavs, but here it seems like we should be excited about the young core. Would going after Deng, Granger, Hayward, or Turner this offseason be worth the money spent?
I think Hayward would make sense because he's young enough to grow with the rest of the core. I would not go after a player on the wrong side of 27, or Turner since he's simply not that good.
Is it realistic to hope for a career comparable to that of Mike Bibby's for Trey Burke?
It's hope! You can do better than that!
Isn't the problem for the Jazz at this point is that they have 2-3 players now (Hayward, Favors, maybe Burks) who could be core starter on a contending team, but none of them are a franchise level #1?
Depending what you think of next year's draft, that's a feature.
Should Jazz fans be legitimately worried that they are going to play themselves out of the top 5 of this draft? That would be a horrific outcome. It also makes me hate the draft lottery. This is a young team that is improving as the season goes along and should absolutely be rewarded with a chance to get a decent pick but will probably get out-tanked.
Answering your question with a question: Are the Jazz really one of the five teams in the league most in need of a star player?. But also, Utah still finishes in the top 5 in 80% of my simulations of the season, so I think this concern is somewhat overstated because of the point differential/record disconnect with Burke I mentioned earlier
Do you think the Jazz should trade Gordon Hayward? He's not worth the money he was asking for and another team will undoubtedly overpay him this summer? Wouldn't it be better to get assets out of him instead of overpaying him or letting him walk? If they did trade him, What's his value?
If another team would definitely value him at that level, what makes you certain it's overpaying?
Jazz are winning with Trey Burke. Does Corbin get the coincidental credit and keep his job next season? Or does Dennis Lindsey pull the plug regardless?
However that decision is made, I don't think it will be primarily about wins and losses.
Any all-stars going to come out of the 2013 class?
I think Michael Carter-Williams has an excellent chance to reach that level. Giannis Antetokounmpo might be next most likely. Trey Burke is going to have a tough time only because there's so many other good young PGs in the West.
If you are Lindsey, do you try to move Marvin Williams or Richard Jefferson at the deadline? They seem to be helping the jazz win games (not good) and may be able to attract some assets.
I'm sure the Jazz will try. I'm not certain there will be much interest since the supply of role players this season exceeds the demand.
I've heard/read of people saying that it is good for rookies to have turnovers and have no idea what they are referring to. Is that legit? Is there any correlation between rookie turnovers and future success? (Our rook T Burke has a nice TO/Ratio so I'm curious if there is anything to this).
All other things equal, rookies with high turnover rates tend to have more room for improvement. Of course, all other things are not always equal, so Burke's solid play thus far is more meaningful.
You seem quick to defend Brian Shaw because of the 'situation' he inherited but don't recall you being so understanding with Ty Corbin. He was handed a sinking ship -- management traded their best player; then the lockout season, then a roster of expiring contracts vs. young players to develop; now a bunch of young guys. They've essentially come within a game or two of projections every season, but somehow all the numbers guys (incl. you?) think he's not a very good coach. What gives?
I think you may be confusing the numbers guys with Jazz fans, who are of course very vocal with their opinion of Tyrone Corbin. Evaluating coaches is extraordinarily difficult, and Corbin is a uniquely difficult coach. I think you've hit on a good point that when you look at the big picture the conclusion on Corbin is very different than when you analyze decision by decision from a micro perspective. A couple of years ago, Neil Paine evaluated coaches based on how players exceeded expectations that season and Corbin came out near the top of the league: https://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2224. At the same time, we know pretty well that coaches have more impact on defense than offense, and Corbin's defenses have never been very good. And while you're tempted to write that off to personnel, Steve Clifford has somehow built a top-five defense around Al Jefferson. Then there's also the matter of player development, which is really the more important task for Corbin over his tenure in Utah. Have young players gotten enough opportunity? I'm not sure. It's hard to tell without knowing what they're doing in practice. Is Corbin any different than the typical coach in this regard? I know that the list of coaches who get credit for how they handle young players is a lot shorter than the list that get criticized for it. So is this an issue with a specific coach or a disconnect between fans and coaches in general?. Unfortunately, I've got more questions than answers. But hopefully that lays out a bit of my thought process.
I appreciate the thoughtful answer on Corbin. I agree that evaluating coaches is very difficult. Maybe it wasn't you that was not a fan of Corbin, but I know for a fact that Hollinger was pretty critical. Jazz fans too of course, but most of them also wanted to run Sloan out of town until around oh, I don't know, '97 or so. I wish young/first-time coaches were given a little more time to "develop" before they were judged, but alas, I understand that's what people do, especially sports fans.
And I certainly have been critical at times, but yeah, we forget that coaches have development curves just as players do. In general, the number of fans who are unhappy with their coach far exceeds the number who are satisfied.
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