doubledribble
Member
We all know the draft reality: there are 5 certain future stars in the 2014 draft and the talent drops sharply afterwards. And, since the Jazz seem to be much more likely to draft in the dreaded 6-10 range, they will waste an once-in-generation opportunity to get a star and will be doomed to the years of playoff mediocrity. And that makes me sad.
But then I look at our current team and see that we ALREADY have three top-5 picks: Williams, Favors and Kanter … and none of them is setting the world on fire. Actually, they pretty much play on the level of Hayward (9th pick), Burks (12th) and Burke (8th). And then I see the teams contending right now on the shoulders of the players picked way outside of top-5, such as Indiana. Could it be that the so-called experts are routinely wrong in evaluating the potential of the players in the draft?
With that in mind I decided to look at the draft history since the 2006 draft (the first draft when they went to the current age limits of 19) up until the 2012 draft. Additionally, I decided to separate the first picks into a separate category since while a team record can be a reasonable guarantee of drafting in the 2-5 range, getting the first pick still depends much more on blind luck than on a dedicated tanking tanking (even the shameless Sixers cannot reasonably expect getting the first pick this year).
So I counted the players who either already became stars or are well underway (and unquestionably will be there in a couple of years).
For the 2-5 picks in 7 drafts we have Aldridge (2), Durant (2), Horford (3), Westbrook (4), Love (5), Harden (3), and Cousins (5). That yields the 25% chance of getting a star (7 out of 28). For the 6-10 picks we have Roy (6), Noah (9), Brook Lopez (10), Curry (7), DeRozan (9), George (10), Lillard (6), and Drummond (9), with the 23% chance of getting a star. And drafting first gives the team 71% chance to draft the future star (Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, Davis).
The conclusions:
1. If you do not have the first pick you probably are not going to get a star. That will be the most likely outcome for the Utah Jazz, unfortunately.
2. The Jazz fans should calm down and stop agonizing over “winning meaningless games”: statistically, there is pretty much no difference in the chances to draft a star with the 4th pick vs 7th pick. So let our young players (and even evil Corbin) enjoy they hard-fought wins and gain valuable experience.
3. Still, you do not want to drop below the 10th pick: in the last 7 seasons no stars were drafted with the picks in the 11-15 range.
But then I look at our current team and see that we ALREADY have three top-5 picks: Williams, Favors and Kanter … and none of them is setting the world on fire. Actually, they pretty much play on the level of Hayward (9th pick), Burks (12th) and Burke (8th). And then I see the teams contending right now on the shoulders of the players picked way outside of top-5, such as Indiana. Could it be that the so-called experts are routinely wrong in evaluating the potential of the players in the draft?
With that in mind I decided to look at the draft history since the 2006 draft (the first draft when they went to the current age limits of 19) up until the 2012 draft. Additionally, I decided to separate the first picks into a separate category since while a team record can be a reasonable guarantee of drafting in the 2-5 range, getting the first pick still depends much more on blind luck than on a dedicated tanking tanking (even the shameless Sixers cannot reasonably expect getting the first pick this year).
So I counted the players who either already became stars or are well underway (and unquestionably will be there in a couple of years).
For the 2-5 picks in 7 drafts we have Aldridge (2), Durant (2), Horford (3), Westbrook (4), Love (5), Harden (3), and Cousins (5). That yields the 25% chance of getting a star (7 out of 28). For the 6-10 picks we have Roy (6), Noah (9), Brook Lopez (10), Curry (7), DeRozan (9), George (10), Lillard (6), and Drummond (9), with the 23% chance of getting a star. And drafting first gives the team 71% chance to draft the future star (Rose, Griffin, Wall, Irving, Davis).
The conclusions:
1. If you do not have the first pick you probably are not going to get a star. That will be the most likely outcome for the Utah Jazz, unfortunately.
2. The Jazz fans should calm down and stop agonizing over “winning meaningless games”: statistically, there is pretty much no difference in the chances to draft a star with the 4th pick vs 7th pick. So let our young players (and even evil Corbin) enjoy they hard-fought wins and gain valuable experience.
3. Still, you do not want to drop below the 10th pick: in the last 7 seasons no stars were drafted with the picks in the 11-15 range.
