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Trump with slight lead nine weeks out (CNN Poll)

The Midnight

The Midnight

#Baby_Talk
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https://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.

The topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not. Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll. Clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy. But most voters say they still expect to see Clinton prevail in November, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think Trump has the better shot at winning.

he new poll finds the two major party candidates provoke large gaps by gender, age, race, education and partisanship. Among those likely to turn out in the fall, both candidates have secured about the same share of their own partisans (92% of Democrats back Clinton, 90% of Republicans are behind Trump) but independents give Trump an edge, 49% say they'd vote for him while just 29% of independent voters back Clinton. Another 16% back Johnson, 6% Stein.

peaking to reporters aboard her campaign plane Tuesday, Clinton shrugged off a question about the CNN/ORC survey.
"I really pay no attention to polls. When they are good for me -- and there have been a lot of them that have been good for me recently -- I don't pay attention," Clinton said. "When they are not so good, I don't pay attention. We are on a course that we are sticking with."

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 1-4 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The survey includes results among 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters. For results among registered or likely voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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I don't know why invading NZ is not on Trump's agenda. Prime beach-front real estate. Completely defenseless apart from Peter Jackson, who has some experience in military strategy (but he'd need wizards and ghost armies). I bet if he added NZ invasion to his platform, he'd jump 10 points in the polls.
 
Siro said:
I don't know why invading NZ is not on Trump's agenda. Prime beach-front real estate. Completely defenseless apart from Peter Jackson, who has some experience in military strategy (but he'd need wizards and ghost armies). I bet if he added NZ invasion to his platform, he'd jump 10 points in the polls.
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Cos The Apprentice is the No. 1 reality TV show around these parts.
 
The CNN poll is an outlier. The race has tightened considerably but Clinton still has a three to four point lead nationally. This is a good example of why it’s important to look at an aggregation of polls.

One thing all the recent polls are showing is that Gary Johnson is still falling short of the 15 percent he needs to be invited to the debates. So not good news for those hoping for a viable alternative to Clinton/Trump.
 
Jonah said:
The CNN poll is an outlier. The race has tightened considerably but Clinton still has a three to four point lead nationally. This is a good example of why it’s important to look at an aggregation of polls.

One thing all the recent polls are showing is that Gary Johnson is still falling short of the 15 percent he needs to be invited to the debates. So not good news for those hoping for a viable alternative to Clinton/Trump.
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The CNN poll has a 3.5% point margin error and I did highlight that in the OP. And because Trump has a 2% lead in this poll, Clinton could very well still be in the lead when you take into account the 3.5%....
 
Jonah said:
The CNN poll is an outlier. The race has tightened considerably but Clinton still has a three to four point lead nationally. This is a good example of why it’s important to look at an aggregation of polls.

One thing all the recent polls are showing is that Gary Johnson is still falling short of the 15 percent he needs to be invited to the debates. So not good news for those hoping for a viable alternative to Clinton/Trump.
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Yep. Johnson seems to be stagnating. Unfortunately the one thing that really didn't ring true in the www.BalancedRebellion.com video was the line that equated Johnson to "freaking Batman." Hillary is the mob, Trump is the Joker, but Johnson is more like Pedro from Napoleon Dynamite than he is like Batman. He's way better than the other two, but he's nothing special. Unfortunately that probably means he will never reach 15%, let alone win.
 
BTW, I just learned that the Balanced Rebellion video was produced by a a group in Utah County called Harmon Brothers on a shoestring budget. It's not their first video that has gone viral. They are good at what they do.
 
ONE LOVE said:
The CNN poll has a 3.5% point margin error and I did highlight that in the OP. And because Trump has a 2% lead in this poll, Clinton could very well still be in the lead when you take into account the 3.5%....
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Do you know what the word outlier means?
 
ONE LOVE said:
The CNN poll has a 3.5% point margin error and I did highlight that in the OP. And because Trump has a 2% lead in this poll, Clinton could very well still be in the lead when you take into account the 3.5%....
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I understand the CNN poll. I just wasn’t clear enough or go into enough detail on the point I was trying to make. The CNN poll results are unusually favorable for Trump, most other polls still show Clinton with the lead, that’s what makes it the outlier. People who interpret polls professionally, like Nate Silver of 538 and Sam Wang of the Princeton Consortium, might have thirty or more polls they track on a continuing basis, and they weigh them according to methodology, history and accuracy, before determining their results and their predictions. That’s what I meant by aggregation. Both Silver and Wang, as of today, still show Clinton with a three to four point lead over Trump.
 
Astonishing that he still has any shred of support considering all of the ridiculous **** he has said and done. I just can't fathom there are that many kooks out there.
 
str8line said:
Astonishing that he still has any shred of support considering all of the ridiculous **** he has said and done. I just can't fathom there are that many kooks out there.
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And that's why I started this thread - he has had such bad publicity over the past 1-2 months, and YET HE IS STILL WITHIN REACH.


Mind-boggling.
 
ONE LOVE said:
And that's why I started this thread - he has had such bad publicity over the past 1-2 months, and YET HE IS STILL WITHIN REACH.


Mind-boggling.
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"Trump says mean things" is basically all I ever hear people say bad about him.


Sent from my iPhone using JazzFanz mobile app
 
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