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Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield and the Iraqi's Mosul offensive

It will be interesting to watch that is for sure. And this is not even the whole story. It ignores rebel groups that are not "moderate", Saudi Arabia, Russia and the Syrian gov.

I think there are simply to many groups with to many differing ambitions for it all to end after this. For example, I don't think Turkey just wraps up and goes back to their original territory. That will anger the Kurds and strain Turkey's relationship with the U.S. That has NATO ramifications. It will also anger the Iraqi gov and their backers, Iran and Shi'ite militias.

Also it is wider than just the territoru in Iraq and Syria. They are in the Sinai in Egypt and Libya for example. Yemen looks like a good chaotic place they could make worse...
 
Stoked said:
It will be interesting to watch that is for sure. And this is not even the whole story. It ignores rebel groups that are not "moderate", Saudi Arabia, Russia and the Syrian gov.

I think there are simply to many groups with to many differing ambitions for it all to end after this. For example, I don't think Turkey just wraps up and goes back to their original territory. That will anger the Kurds and strain Turkey's relationship with the U.S. That has NATO ramifications. It will also anger the Iraqi gov and their backers, Iran and Shi'ite militias.

Also it is wider than just the territoru in Iraq and Syria. They are in the Sinai in Egypt and Libya for example. Yemen looks like a good chaotic place they could make worse...
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Yeah but those other places aren't turning into a proxy World War. I was reading that the US asked the Syrian Kurds(who we have been backing) to withdraw from territory west of the Euphrates. It seems that Erdogan has the (behind the scenes) blessing of NATO to set up a staging ground in Syria. I hope this doesn't become Vietnam on steroids.
 
♪alt13 said:
Yeah but those other places aren't turning into a proxy World War. I was reading that the US asked the Syrian Kurds(who we have been backing) to withdraw from territory west of the Euphrates. It seems that Erdogan has the (behind the scenes) blessing of NATO to set up a staging ground in Syria. I hope this doesn't become Vietnam on steroids.
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Highly unlikely given war exhaustion in the US, along with lack of a plausible path forward for NATO. Russia already won this battle.
 
Siro said:
Highly unlikely given war exhaustion in the US, along with lack of a plausible path forward for NATO. Russia already won this battle.
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We may have said the same thing about Vietnam in the early 1950's. (Eisenhower basically did)
 
♪alt13 said:
Yeah but those other places aren't turning into a proxy World War. I was reading that the US asked the Syrian Kurds(who we have been backing) to withdraw from territory west of the Euphrates. It seems that Erdogan has the (behind the scenes) blessing of NATO to set up a staging ground in Syria. I hope this doesn't become Vietnam on steroids.
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It's all connected. I agree that syria is the big apple. But they all connect. Syria blowing up into a world war will be played out in Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, Ukraine, east and south china seas, India and Pakistan...

As for the Kurds and the US asking them to withdraw. That could be a green light from NATO for turkey or it could be the US knowin it's happening no matter what and trying to give the Kurds a heads up.

I agree that world war is unlikely but I do think Clinton increases that chance.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/22/world/middleeast/syira-aleppo-un.html?_r=0

The head of the UN Human Rights Council is calling for an investigation into possible war crimes over Aleppo.

So question, let's say that the council agrees to an investigation, they have that investigation and they come back and hit security council nations like America and Russia for "war crimes". Then Russia and America laugh it off and nothing happens.

Is it the end of "war crimes"? Is it cause people to lose faith in the UN? Is the UN weakened?

What do you think would happen?

Also Russia is planning a permanent naval base at Tartus, Syria. Right now 2 more Russian warships are en route up the coast of Africa and Russia's only aircraft carrier and a supporting fleet are coming from the north and are somewhere off the northern coast of Portugal/Spain. Obviously multiple NATO affiliated warships have been shadowing them the whole way.
 
I hope the US doesn't stab the Kurds in the back. There needs to be a Kurdistan at the end of all of this.

I wonder how many allies have been abandoned since 1991?
 
^not denying that there are some less-than-savory Kurds, or that a nation-state isn't a ticket to paradise.
 
NAOS said:
I hope the US doesn't stab the Kurds in the back. There needs to be a Kurdistan at the end of all of this.

I wonder how many allies have been abandoned since 1991?
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It'll be tricky because the US is anxious over Turkey drifting out of NATO and towards Russia. Turkey does NOT want a Kurdish nation on its border. It'll be quite the dance to try and appease both.

Might the US lean towards Turkey because they are shy about losing another strategically important ally after the Philippines?
 
I think it's way too early to declare the Philippines "lost." I'm not paying very much attention, but it sounds like they have a blustery leader... who isn't calling off the arms agreements, etc. He can't shut off the taps he wants to + keep open the taps he wants to. His day will end.

And, my statement was definitely overly general. But, I standby it. It may be a difficult needle to thread, but we need to stand by the Kurds.
 
NAOS said:
I think it's way too early to declare the Philippines "lost." I'm not paying very much attention, but it sounds like they have a blustery leader... who isn't calling off the arms agreements, etc. He can't shut off the taps he wants to + keep open the taps he wants to. His day will end.

And, my statement was definitely overly general. But, I standby it. It may be a difficult needle to thread, but we need to stand by the Kurds.
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I agree that we need to stand by the Kurds. If we could find a way to separate the founding of a Kurdish state (parts of Iraq and Syria - both lost to us IMO) from the PKK there might be a chance. But Turkey just bombed the YPG in Syria north of Aleppo and the Peshmerga is battling Turkey backed rebels on the ground in Syria.

The Philippines isn't irrevocably lost but there is absolutely a very rapid frost there. Their president is openly advocating ditching the US for China. If that truly happens it would be a major blow to the US in the pacific. Right now it might make the US rethink Turkey decisions though.

Russia and China are racking up "victories" against the US right now..
 
I wonder why Turkey calls ISIS terrorists, but US government cannot call PKK and its variations terrorists. Turkey could just call'em Arabs. You see NAOS, even Turkey is one of the allies US loves to backstab all the time. It's politics. They are doing this so you can live in peace and prosperity. We gotchur back We will keep dying so you can have it your way across the ocean ; )
 
NAOS said:
I think it's way too early to declare the Philippines "lost." I'm not paying very much attention, but it sounds like they have a blustery leader... who isn't calling off the arms agreements, etc. He can't shut off the taps he wants to + keep open the taps he wants to. His day will end.

And, my statement was definitely overly general. But, I standby it. It may be a difficult needle to thread, but we need to stand by the Kurds.
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interesting to see an American invested in the plight of the Kurds. It's quite commonplace conversation whenever I'm in Germany but I can name the amount of people in my life on my hands that even know what Kurdish people or Kurdistan are
 
dalamon said:
interesting to see an American invested in the plight of the Kurds. It's quite commonplace conversation whenever I'm in Germany but I can name the amount of people in my life on my hands that even know what Kurdish people or Kurdistan are
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I became interested in the Kurdish plight back in my undergrad days (1999). But this has all be reinvigorated for me recently as I've reviewed the Iraq wars and changed my mind pretty substantially on some major things. For example (and in super-broad strokes), I think Bush Sr's decision to stop before Baghdad and leave Saddam in power was the single largest mistake in that region's last 30 years of history. I don't get the sense that that's very controversial to say. But the following has become pretty unpopular: I think the justifications for second war in Iraq were clear. It was a just war. It was just brutally/horrifically mismanaged. I hate to think of how many groups of people were mobilized and motivated to fight for their freedom who were either killed or abandoned.

Etc.

Etc.
 
Why are all the refugees in South Dakota?

I was there two weeks ago an I swear I did not see a American. Okay so I think if we create wars than we should take in entire countries of refugees. I think we should also all sacrifice like the Greatest Generation did an pay for are war costs.

WTS I am worried why did they take all refugees to oil country? Does it not seem odd they take peoples from lands that control oil trade into are oil fields? It is not cheap to live in South Dakota an there is no housing available so why take them there? It makes no sense. I think Obama is in league with OPEC on this one. We have a storied history of fighting for oil resources.
 
dalamon said:
interesting to see an American invested in the plight of the Kurds. It's quite commonplace conversation whenever I'm in Germany but I can name the amount of people in my life on my hands that even know what Kurdish people or Kurdistan are
Click to expand...

Well now you can name 2 more. :)
 
NAOS said:
I hope the US doesn't stab the Kurds in the back. There needs to be a Kurdistan at the end of all of this.

I wonder how many allies have been abandoned since 1991?
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Like Turkey would ever sign off on that. The Kurds will be backstabbed, for sure.
 
NAOS said:
I hope the US doesn't stab the Kurds in the back. There needs to be a Kurdistan at the end of all of this.

I wonder how many allies have been abandoned since 1991?
Click to expand...

Yeah, we're going to.

Rojava,west Kurdistan, is being isolated from Afrin by Turkey(I gotta think that they have our blessing because the Turkish parliament gave Erdogan authorization to go into Syria and in the same document authorized expanded foreign forces in Turkey, presumably Nato). The KRG area is going to be split from Rojava by creating a new regional government in the Iraqi province of Nineveh. The Kurds may get to retain control of the Northeastern half Kirkuk, eastern Nineveh, and some northern parts of Diyala but only within a federated Iraq.
 
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