Way too early prediction poll for 21-22 regular season

[LogGrad98]

Ok so it looks like we are done making moves this off-season.

Players out:

Morgan
Niang
Oni

Players in

Whiteside
Gay
Paschall
Butler

Staying

Conley
Brantley

Where does that get us this next season?

Last season we ended up first in the NBA, the only time in franchise history we were alone with the top record (the only other time we had the 1 seed we shared the top record with the bulls, but we had the tie-breaker). Our record of 52-20 was good enough to be on pace for 59 wins in a regular 82-game season.

So did we plug the holes? Did we do enough to get much better than we were? Were the moves focused on the post-season but won't really help us in the regular season? Where do we end up in the regular season next year?

Please choose the # of wins you think we will end up with and the possible seeding. 1 vote in each section.

 

[infection]

I put 56-60 wins but my prediction is 60 wins. First or second seed.

 

[LogGrad98]

I think the Lakers will be better this year, at least more healthy. Also the clippers, suns, and teams like Dallas will be in the mix. We didn't address our most glaring hole, perimeter D. I think we will see modest regular-season success but with the Lakers back in play and if the others stay healthy we will have a tough time meeting the same seed we did last year. So I predicted 56-60 wins and 3rd or 4th seed.

 

[kabenac]

I went with 61-65 wins with a 1-2 seed.

 

[SoUjazzfan]

Barring injury I think we win 58 games and finish either 2nd or 3rd. With a little deeper bench I think we make it out of the second d round, but not sure if the finals are obtainable with both LA teams in the West. The league will be pushing hard for one of them to be there.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

I went with 61-65 wins with a 1-2 seed.

Same, but I hope they strategically do worse due to load management and getting some of our younger players experience.

I hope for mid 50s and a 3/4 seed with a well rested team after 82.

 

[NAOS]

I expect us to be good in the regular season. I would probably vote for a top-3 seed.... and hope that we could achieve that whilst providing excellent load management for Mike and Joe, especially. But some for Rudy and Don as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the Lakers will be better this year, at least more healthy. Also the clippers, suns, and teams like Dallas will be in the mix. We didn't address our most glaring hole, perimeter D. I think we will see modest regular-season success but with the Lakers back in play and if the others stay healthy we will have a tough time meeting the same seed we did last year. So I predicted 56-60 wins and 3rd or 4th seed.

Clips likely don’t have Leonard at all… PG is a guy who misses some games too… they are a deep team so likely manage it well but I think they fall back to the back half of the playoff bracket.

Dallas didn’t have the offseason they would have liked too… GS is a team I’m watching… I think they end up getting Ben Simmons and if Klay is 80% of his normal self at some point they should be good.

Lakers are all mercenaries… could be good but could blow up spectacularly. Denver gets really interesting if Murray comes back healthy. West will be wild.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I expect us to be good in the regular season. I would probably vote for a top-3 seed.... and hope that we could achieve that whilst providing excellent load management for Mike and Joe, especially. But some for Rudy and Don as well.

This is the goal imo. Experiment like a ducking mad scientist with different 5 options. Load manage like a MoFo. Get home court in the first and second round if possible but be healthy AF and hopefully Quin has enough data to adjust a lot.

I’ve been a skeptical ******* a lot around here… I’m really happy we executed very well on a plan that made sense. I give the GM a full A on the offseason. I like JZ… heard him speak a few times and I like how he’s kinda understated. I’m impressed and would like to keep him around… comfortable taking the interim GM tag off him. Ainge can consult.

 

[enchilada_style]

I hope quin is willing to risk giving up some wins in order to keep his guys fresh for when it matters. I predict 56 wins and a top 3 seed


Sent from my iPhone using JazzFanz

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I put 56-60 wins but my prediction is 60 wins. First or second seed.

Agree

I think the Lakers will be better this year, at least more healthy. Also the clippers, suns, and teams like Dallas will be in the mix. We didn't address our most glaring hole, perimeter D. I think we will see modest regular-season success but with the Lakers back in play and if the others stay healthy we will have a tough time meeting the same seed we did last year. So I predicted 56-60 wins and 3rd or 4th seed.

When was the last time Lakers made it through a season healthy? Davis’s history speaks for its self, and LBJ has logged a lot of minutes in his career and it’s shown over the last two years missing a ton of games due to injury, I would expect the same just as I expect Conley to mis his share of games, just hope not in the playoffs again. Dallas didn’t improve at all really, it’s still just the Luka show, and isn’t Kawhi Leonard supposed to miss at least most of the season?

 

[NUMBERICA]

I would trade security of a higher amount of regular season wins for load management and lineup experimentation. So I probably voted too high on wins.

The league is about as wide open as it was last year. I think the Lakers could smash through a good chunk of the regular season but the health (/age) of their stupid 3 is gonna be a serious question. I think that and their lack of spacing is going to make them vulnerable in the postseason.

If the Jazz are healthy and use the full capability of their roster I think they make the finals and maybe win it all. This is up to Quin now and I think if he manages the roster the same way this year and encounters similar results, he’s gone. I really don’t think Smith and Wade are ****ing around, and I think the organization sees that. I have hope that Quin has all the right tools and incentive to do the best job he can.

 

[Jazzinho]

55 wins, third seed. Hopefully because we manage the load and experiment different lineups and play styles.
This is important for playoffs adjustments, and as we've all seen we failed miserably on adjusting.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I would security of a higher amount of regular season wins for load management and lineup experimentation. So I probably voted too high on wins.

The league is about as wide open as it was last year. I think the Lakers could smash through a good chunk of the regular season but the health (/age) of their stupid 3 is gonna be a serious question, and I think that and their lack of spacing is going to make them vulnerable in the postseason.

If the Jazz are healthy and use the full capability of their roster I think they make the finals and maybe win it all. This is up to Quin now and I think if he manages the roster the same way this year and encounter similar results, he’s gone.

I would say the West is wide open... I think Brooklyn is the Boogie man... if they are healthy (say KD and Harden or Kyrie) they are a monster. They also have a ton of depth that you normally wouldn't have on these types of teams... they also have some good young players. Marks has been really good... I know he got lucky with KD wanting to come there but **** man... the depth is pretty great.

If we get to the Finals that is as good as you can hope for... maybe they aren't 100%. If they are then no one will beat them.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm not entirely sure that we got much better. I think Gay, Whiteside, Paschall, and Butler might all be better players in a vacuum than the guys they replace but I question the fit of everything. The Jazz have traditionally been better when one of their key scorers/ball handlers is injured and I don't think it's a coincidence. When everyone was healthy guys got squeezed out of touches and shot attempts. I thought it led to more hero ball moments and much worse defensive effort. Maybe it is just a fluke, but we've certainly added more fuel to the fire. The good thing is that they're just bench players and as I've always said they won't change the outlook of the team that much. That is also the bad thing, however. Swapping out Niang and Favors for Gay and Whiteside isn't likely going to make a significant change in the positive direction either. Especially in the RS.

I'll echo what others have said about experimenting with different schemes and lineups. Quin and his stubbornness has been the biggest roadblock for this team in the playoffs. I will go one step further and say that this team needs to make a trade. As much as I put our defensive failure on Quin, we also set ourselves up for failure by having little to no defensive talent outside of Gobert. When you look at the main rotation guys outside of Gobert and O'Neale...who is actually capable of improving their defense. I don't think Bogey, Conley, or Ingles are capable and I don't think Clarkson and Mitchell are willing. We have an extreme surplus of guys who get buckets. It's time to reallocate some of that to a lower usage player who can help the team in other ways.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Honestly having Whiteside and Udoka looks solid too... I think you can load manage Rudy a bit... going to be important going into the back half of his career.

We have really good depth at 4/5 and 1/2 positions. Would like better options than Oni/Hughes as a 3 if we have injuries but would understand if we can't find someone.

We have continuity but the back half of the roster really improved imo and we have a lot of flexibility. We also have trade assets in JC, Bojan, and Ingles (if he gets hurt) if we need to pivot and get something different. We also have the trade exception if something with super high value becomes available... the money would be insane so it'd have to be good... but if a PJ Tucker became available for cheap its actually possible. We are in a great spot.

 

[infection]

I would say the West is wide open... I think Brooklyn is the Boogie man... if they are healthy (say KD and Harden or Kyrie) they are a monster. They also have a ton of depth that you normally wouldn't have on these types of teams... they also have some good young players. Marks has been really good... I know he got lucky with KD wanting to come there but **** man... the depth is pretty great.

If we get to the Finals that is as good as you can hope for... maybe they aren't 100%. If they are then no one will beat them.

This is a matchup I think we still need to roster plan for. If we're weak on specific perimeter defense, they're the one team with two guys on the perimeter you've got to account for. It's a shame we weren't open with actually using Shaq, because it would be nice to bring him back.

 

[NAOS]

This is the goal imo. Experiment like a ducking mad scientist with different 5 options. Load manage like a MoFo. Get home court in the first and second round if possible but be healthy AF and hopefully Quin has enough data to adjust a lot.

I’ve been a skeptical ******* a lot around here… I’m really happy we executed very well on a plan that made sense. I give the GM a full A on the offseason. I like JZ… heard him speak a few times and I like how he’s kinda understated. I’m impressed and would like to keep him around… comfortable taking the interim GM tag off him. Ainge can consult.

I share these same hopes (in your first paragraph).... but I also feel like that should’ve been the goal already before now. So why hasn’t it? And why should I expect it to be now?

There’s some airspace between us on the second paragraph. I’m short of giving the offseason a full A. Probably more B/B+ territory because I still don’t believe in the perimeter defense. And, I’m not sure what to make of our backup Cs.

Would love to see the balls to make a mid-season, roster-balancing trade.

 

[Udidthizz]

I think there will be fewer very bad teams this year and the Jazz will be less focused on the nr. 1 seed using a bit more load management. So I went with a conservative 51-55. I do have high hopes based on nothing concrete that this will be the year it will all come together in the playoffs. The Bucks disappointed in 2020 as the nr. 1 seed and had things go their way this year. I’m hoping for the same for us.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm not entirely sure that we got much better. I think Gay, Whiteside, Paschall, and Butler might all be better players in a vacuum than the guys they replace but I question the fit of everything. The Jazz have traditionally been better when one of their key scorers/ball handlers is injured and I don't think it's a coincidence. When everyone was healthy guys got squeezed out of touches and shot attempts. I thought it led to more hero ball moments and much worse defensive effort. Maybe it is just a fluke, but we've certainly added more fuel to the fire. The good thing is that they're just bench players and as I've always said they won't change the outlook of the team that much. That is also the bad thing, however. Swapping out Niang and Favors for Gay and Whiteside isn't likely going to make a significant change in the positive direction either. Especially in the RS.

I'll echo what others have said about experimenting with different schemes and lineups. Quin and his stubbornness has been the biggest roadblock for this team in the playoffs. I will go one step further and say that this team needs to make a trade. As much as I put our defensive failure on Quin, we also set ourselves up for failure by having little to no defensive talent outside of Gobert. When you look at the main rotation guys outside of Gobert and O'Neale...who is actually capable of improving their defense. I don't think Bogey, Conley, or Ingles are capable and I don't think Clarkson and Mitchell are willing. We have an extreme surplus of guys who get buckets. It's time to reallocate some of that to a lower usage player who can help the team in other ways.

Not sure I agree with the bolded part. I think Bojan struggled to start the year but it was more about the wrist than anything. I think individually guys did better in bigger roles but the whole was better when the team was fully healthy.

I think you are right the RS won't be much better if at all... but we are way more flexible and better able to handle injury issues. We stayed fairly healthy last year until the end of the RS. We should sacrifice some games in the RS to experiment... play Gay at the 5 for 5-10 minutes a night... supplement the additional 5ish minutes with Whiteside.

The second paragraph is true as well, but my thing is I don't think "that guy" is currently available. Having Gay and Bogey allows us to move one or the other... JC is the guy I think that makes the most sense to move to improve defensively now that you have Conley under contract... Butler and Forrest likely can soak up some minutes... you have Ingles, Gay, and MAYBE Paschall that can create in the second unit... supplement with Conley and Don by staggering here and there. So we can go into the season and wait for that guy to come available (hopefully).

Swapping JC or Bogey for Smart would be helpful to balance stuff out. I can't think of a lot of other guys... maybe RoCo but I think he's a little overrated. He's disruptive but gets cooked individually... he's definitely versatile but I think unless he's a smallball 5 then he's just kinda average overall. There's just not a lot of those super defenders out there... don't think we have the right assets for Lu Dort. I kinda like KCP's defense and think he's actually a little underrated... he may become available this season if Washington flames out.

So I see the need... I don't see the obvious solution... and I'm good rolling with what we have and being opportunistic.