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2020 Presidential election

Catchall said:
We'll see. Bernie looks positioned to win in California, Texas and Massachusetts. Those would be big wins and would bolster his case. A fair number of votes were already cast through early voting, and both Warren and Bloomberg will take a bite out of Biden's returns. This is the first time that Bloomberg will have been on the ballot with his $400M worth of advertising behind him.

You're fooling yourself if you think Trump won't destroy Biden in a debate setting. Biden would need to avoid debates as much as he can.
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I predict that Texas will be edge Biden and Bernie will win Cali but with a much smaller margin of victory than foretasted for many months. North Carolina was tossup until last poll where Biden had a 2:1 edge. So Biden has huge momentum.

This is stupid to say with the HUGE uncertainty, but my gut is telling me that this will be a big day for Biden, and at the end of the day, it is a 2-way race with Both Biden and Bernie in the 475-550 delegate range and close enough where you have to give the inside track to Biden from here on out.

We'll see on debates. Trump now has a record to defend, so it will be VERY different from last election where he just bitched about the swamp. Biden will be poised with facts to call him out for all the incompetence and failures and expose Trump's meager knowledge, so Trump will be on his heels. I believe Trump's thin skin will be his downfall in Biden debates.
 
When will the "lock him up" chants begin at the Trump rallies, or have they already started?
 
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@Jazzta Why focusing on winning the youth vote at the expense of the older crowd is a great recipe for failure:


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don’t get me wrong, I’d love for more young people to vote. But even with Sanders, their turnout rate sucks ***.
 
Eminence said:
'Bernie Bros' I know of are quite emphatically against Bloomberg being in the primary at all. Many would go 3rd party if he did somehow win the nomination.
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are they? The Bernie Bros I’ve seen on Twitter love having him still in because he’s sucking up diverting moderate votes.
 
Zombie said:
Fair enough. I tried to word it in such a way as to not make it about you in particular, but clearly I failed there.

I don't think the logic of your second point holds together particularly well though. Take the 08 race for example, Obama didn't "emphatically win" among democrats but ended with a pretty dominating performance in the general election. At the same time McCain pretty easily wiped the floor against Mitt Romney on the road to ultimately losing the election.
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Rereading your post makes it pretty clear that you were being careful about your wording so I see what you’re saying. No worries.

Doesn’t a close primary with Obama becoming the eventual winner bode well for Sanders? Or do Bernie’s supporters fear that Biden will become the delegate leader? If Biden becomes the delegate leader, why shouldn’t he win the nomination?
If we enter a brokered convention and Sanders is the leader in delegate count, do Bernie’s supporters really believe the Democratic establishment will nominate Biden or Warren? If so, I think that’s a completely unnecessary and irrational fear. Whoever is the delegate leader will win the nomination; brokered convention or not imo.
 
Catchall said:
Trump is vastly more coherent and savvy than Joe Biden. That's not even a discussion.
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I love the “not even a discussion” Debating technique.

Last time it was effectively used was in the “what tastes better, tater tots or French fries” debate at john Adams elementary school in 1894.
 
The Thriller said:
@Jazzta Why focusing on winning the youth vote at the expense of the older crowd is a great recipe for failure:


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don’t get me wrong, I’d love for more young people to vote. But even with Sanders, their turnout rate sucks ***.
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Your argument doesn’t make sense. Even if the ratio was 50/50 Bernie’s winning numbers among people under 44 are way higher than Biden’s among the older people, except in SC.

You throw a table at me pretending to look smart and you can’t even interpret it yourself.
 
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