Blind Taste Test - Pick 3 Players

[Coach Ellis]

Player 9 - 12.5 pts - 1.9 ast - 5.5 reb - 1.0 stl - 0.7 blk - 49/44/72 - 5.2 three point attempts per game

This is the one we want. . .

Player 10 - 10.5 pts - 1.8 ast - 6.0 reb - 1.1 stl - 0.3 blk - 43/38/87 - 5.4 three point attempts per game

Here’s another option.

Also, this one is only 9 months older than Agbaji. He’s probably not going to be as affordable as the other guy I posted about (who played less and is older) but he should be a viable option for the Jazz if they want to sign him.

 

[NUMBERICA]

50% more rebounds, 100% more steals, 75% more blocks and more efficient shooting… but sure I’ll play along.

If these were Ochais numbers I’d likely be quite a bit higher on him FYI.

49/44 is way, way more efficient. Those are damn-near if not literally elite. I don’t know how those are comparable to 40/34.

 

[Coach Ellis]

49/44 is way, way more efficient. Those are damn-near if not literally elite. I don’t know how those are comparable to 40/34.

Also, I’m not bagging on Ochai. I actually think he has great potential and I liked a lot of what I saw from him this year. I’m hoping he goes out there and competes his *** off to TAKE the starting SG position this next season. I think he definitely has the potential to be a quality starter.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you know who it is?

Nope

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Player 9 - 12.5 pts - 1.9 ast - 5.5 reb - 1.0 stl - 0.7 blk - 49/44/72 - 5.2 three point attempts per game

This is the one we want. . .

Do you know who it is?

Oh its Yuta Wantanabe... kinda proves my point with the thread. Statistically he was obviously better than Ochai and was not a rotation player by season's end (unless he was hurt).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Player 10 - 10.5 pts - 1.8 ast - 6.0 reb - 1.1 stl - 0.3 blk - 43/38/87 - 5.4 three point attempts per game

Here’s another option.

Also, this one is only 9 months older than Agbaji. He’s probably not going to be as affordable as the other guy I posted about (who played less and is older) but he should be a viable option for the Jazz if they want to sign him.

Oh this guy is very affordable... both him and Yuta.

This is Troy Brown Jr.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Honestly Yuta is a pretty good comp... they are both deadly from the corners and bad above the break.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Yep - both Yuta Watanabe and Troy Brown, Jr. Both are guys that I’d like to see the Jazz prioritize for next year.

Numbers are in line with the guys you mentioned, but they should both be much easier (and cheaper) to acquire.

I’m definitely not unhappy with Ochai, but I think his role is likely as a solid starter and rotational player than future star. I’d like the Jazz to have a bunch of these guys and let them compete. I have a lot of faith in Hardy to put the best team out on the floor.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Honestly Yuta is a pretty good comp... they are both deadly from the corners and bad above the break.

Just for fun though. . . Player #11. . .

11.8 pts - 1.9 ast - 5.5 reb - 1.3 stl - 0.5 blk - 45/36/77 - 1.7 three point attempts per game

Any guesses on who this is?

 

[Bawse Dawg]

@Handlogten's Heros Curious how you would compare Ochai after year one with Grayson Allen after year 1?

Stats seem fairly similar, and Allen has carved out a reasonable role for himself in the league. When he was thrown into the Conley trade I really didn't care much at all, I'd care way more about sending out Ochai as a similar type value as Grayson back then. Wondering how you would see it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

@Handlogten's Heros Curious how you would compare Ochai after year one with Grayson Allen after year 1?

Stats seem fairly similar, and Allen has carved out a reasonable role for himself in the league. When he was thrown into the Conley trade I really didn't care much at all, I'd care way more about sending out Ochai as a similar type value as Grayson back then. Wondering how you would see it.

Ochai is a much better prospect imo. May not end up being a better player because Grayson is such a good shooter but I think overall Ochai should be better.

Grayson wasn't just bad on defense... he was like one of the worst defensive players I think I had seen. I think he also got off to a rough start so I was fine with him going in that deal.

Ochai's defense is okay... I'm not sure he can scale his offense after looking at his shot chart. I think he will likely end up being an efficient 12-13 ppg guy. I would love it if he'd increase his activity stats by like 50% at least or be a lock down defender.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Player #12?

11.3 pts - 2.8 ast - 4.9 reb - 0.7 stl - 0.5 blk -
46/31/83 - 4.2 three point attempts per game

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

Ochai started a lot of games with G-League competition where he was expected to be the #1 option with virtually no gravity around him to draw off the pressure.

That alone makes the comp with others difficult.

I though Ochai was a plus on the ball defender. I also think he will thrive as a 3 & D player with better talent around him.

Wes Matthews
A YOUNG Jimmy Butler (back when he was the 4th option)
Better than Royce O'Neal

He isn't Kawhi. But I expect a lot more than I did from Grayson Allen after year 1.

 

[HermanG]

How is it possible that so many of you are missing the point that Hardy loves him and has talked him up to the point where DA designated him untouchable at the DL? We had younger guys than him, and guys who had shown more, but they didnt get that label.

Ochais role/minutes this year can be divided in three segments:
He started the year shaky as a spot minute guy who didn't get into any rhythm and wasnt really sure of himself on the court.
Then he got to play for a short while as a rotational guy with our better players and looked great.
Then post-ASB we started rotating the key player injuries and Ochai had to carry a bigger role he was ready for at this point. He also had to play with worse players around him, and again he struggled.

His numbers are not a reflection of how well he plays as a starter since he didnt play with other starter quality guys that much (e.g. 471 minutes with Lauri, 734 without) and they are not a reflection of how well he plays as a backup since most of the minutes came against opposing team starters. Thats why I said the numbers are flawed logic. Its not rocket science.

HH plays a very safe hater game here since if Ochai comes up strong next year he can always say "well he improved during the summer". He already set that up on page 5.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

How is it possible that so many of you are missing the point that Hardy loves him and has talked him up to the point where DA designated him untouchable at the DL? We had younger guys than him, and guys who had shown more, but they didnt get that label.

Sir… did not miss that point at all… it’s quite literally part of the issue… the front office opinion does not match production or the eye test.

Ochais role/minutes this year can be divided in three segments:
He started the year shaky as a spot minute guy who didn't get into any rhythm and wasnt really sure of himself on the court.
Then he got to play for a short while as a rotational guy with our better players and looked great.
Then post-ASB we started rotating the key player injuries and Ochai had to carry a bigger role he was ready for at this point. He also had to play with worse players around him, and again he struggled.

His numbers are not a reflection of how well he plays as a starter since he didnt play with other starter quality guys that much (e.g. 471 minutes with Lauri, 734 without) and they are not a reflection of how well he plays as a backup since most of the minutes came against opposing team starters. Thats why I said the numbers are flawed logic. Its not rocket science.

So Ochai is the only guy in the league that had circumstances that lead you to believe he is not the player on the back of his basketball card? His few segments went as follows… his G league stint was rough, he was good as a super low volume efficient corner spot up option, as a starter with the g league crew he struggled to be efficient… and none of this addresses part of the issue that the activity stats are VERY low for a guy in Ochais player type. The on ball defense is pretty meh to date. This is not a 19 year contract of rookie… some of those things don’t increase a ton even if he was. His activity stats need to jump like 50% or his on ball defense needs to get quite a bit better. I’m not convinced the offense will scale efficiently so his best role may be as the the low usage high efficiency spot up option… if that’s a starter then it’s an incredible meh starter.

HH plays a very safe hater game here since if Ochai comes up strong next year he can always say "well he improved during the summer". He already set that up on page 5.

I’m not rooting against him lol… hater game is hilarious. If he improves over the summer I will be super happy… but he needs to improve just to be as effective as some of the players I used in this experiment… he’s a rookie so there will be improvement but unless it’s unnatural improvement he is not a prospect worthy of the label “untouchable”. If not being a blatant homer makes me a “hater” then I don’t know what to tell ya. So this likely hurts my “hater game” but I’m gonna tell ya… I don’t think a 22 yo rookie makes a drastic enough improvement where he deserves to start next year and deserves to drive some of the decision making of the franchise (like who we draft or who we retain or pursue in FA). It’s a lot easier to just assume our young guys are the most amazing players ever and are surely future all stars… but sometimes you need to look at the real info and judge it without the rose colored glasses.

 

[HermanG]

Sir… did not miss that point at all… it’s quite literally part of the issue… the front office opinion does not match production or the eye test.



So Ochai is the only guy in the league that had circumstances that lead you to believe he is not the player on the back of his basketball card? His few segments went as follows… his G league stint was rough, he was good as a super low volume efficient corner spot up option, as a starter with the g league crew he struggled to be efficient… and none of this addresses part of the issue that the activity stats are VERY low for a guy in Ochais player type. The on ball defense is pretty meh to date. This is not a 19 year contract of rookie… some of those things don’t increase a ton even if he was. His activity stats need to jump like 50% or his on ball defense needs to get quite a bit better. I’m not convinced the offense will scale efficiently so his best role may be as the the low usage high efficiency spot up option… if that’s a starter then it’s an incredible meh starter.

I’m not rooting against him lol… hater game is hilarious. If he improves over the summer I will be super happy… but he needs to improve just to be as effective as some of the players I used in this experiment… he’s a rookie so there will be improvement but unless it’s unnatural improvement he is not a prospect worthy of the label “untouchable”. If not being a blatant homer makes me a “hater” then I don’t know what to tell ya. So this likely hurts my “hater game” but I’m gonna tell ya… I don’t think a 22 yo rookie makes a drastic enough improvement where he deserves to start next year and deserves to drive some of the decision making of the franchise (like who we draft or who we retain or pursue in FA). It’s a lot easier to just assume our young guys are the most amazing players ever and are surely future all stars… but sometimes you need to look at the real info and judge it without the rose colored glasses.

Our FO isnt in love with anyone. They would sell their mothers if they got proper value back. At least I hope they would, since thats the business they are in.

Its the coaches, developmental staff and scouts that they trust in making those assessment. They see those guys in the gym and have discussions with them daily while we only get a glimpse of them. I'm not saying they are infallible since obviously the history of this league is full of examples of hanging on to guys not worth it... but the sample of Ochai we have seen just isnt good enough to close the case either way.

I'm not saying he is him, but to make a thread to trick people to play the man down? He doesnt deserve that either.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Just for fun though. . . Player #11. . .

11.8 pts - 1.9 ast - 5.5 reb - 1.3 stl - 0.5 blk - 45/36/77 - 1.7 three point attempts per game

Any guesses on who this is?

For the record, these are the per36 numbers for the first two seasons for Jimmy Butler (22/23 age). Obviously, talent, work ethic and mentality helped lift him from the fringe of the Bull’s rotation into the star player he is today. If we want to put a ceiling on Agbaji, this is it - but it’s very unlikely he comes anywhere close to Butler’s level of production. I’m willing to wait until his second year with the Jazz before trying to establish what his long term potential is. (Same for Kessler, THT, Fontecchio and Sexton as well.) I’m hoping for a big second year jump from at least two or three of these young guys.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Player #12?

11.3 pts - 2.8 ast - 4.9 reb - 0.7 stl - 0.5 blk -
46/31/83 - 4.2 three point attempts per game

These are the rookie season (age 23) per36 stats for Austin Reaves. Still hoping the Jazz have some pathway to poaching him, but it’s looking more and more unlikely by the day.

 

[hgb]

These are the rookie season (age 23) per36 stats for Austin Reaves. Still hoping the Jazz have some pathway to poaching him, but it’s looking more and more unlikely by the day.

I don't really want the Jazz to get Reaves, since I'm pretty sure it would be a serious overpay, but I hope we make LAL pay big bucks for him.
I'd love him at a reasonable contract, of course.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I don't really want the Jazz to get Reaves, since I'm pretty sure it would be a serious overpay, but I hope we make LAL pay big bucks for him.
I'd love him at a reasonable contract, of course.

They’re likely to match anything he signs, which ties the Jazz cap space up for a bit. Not a big deal if they’re playing in the margins, but kind of a big deal if they’re looking to add assets at the start of free agency by taking on bad salary.