Donald is about to go through some things...

[fishonjazz]

During his press conference on Friday, Trump vowed that if reelected he would conduct mass deportations of immigrants in Springfield. "We're going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country," he said. "And we're going to start with Springfield"

In recent years, thousands of Haitian immigrants have resettled legally in Springfield after having fled violence and political turmoil in their home country. He wants to deport people who are in the US legally folks. You heard it right from his own mouth.

I wonder if he will also deport his wife Melania as well. She too is an immigrant.

 

[JFFR]

Quick question -

Is there any evidence that the 2020 election was stolen? I'm open to looking at it. I might even consider voting for Trump if the evidence is real. I can't find it but I'm not on Truth social and don't really follow conservative news sites. Please, someone, show me some evidence. Are all the MAGAs really just believe Trump without proof?

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Quick question -

Is there any evidence that the 2020 election was stolen? I'm open to looking at it. I might even consider voting for Trump if the evidence is real. I can't find it but I'm not on Truth social and don't really follow conservative news sites. Please, someone, show me some evidence. Are all the MAGAs really just believe Trump without proof?

It depends on what you mean by "stolen". If you are asking for evidence of illegally cast ballots, hacked machines, or criminal activity on a level large enough to have changed the outcome of the election, there isn't any. There was the odd vote here and there with issues but in the context of the millions of votes cast in the election, it was miniscule.

However, the voting rules in the 2020 election were radically changed in many states in a way that may not have been entirely legal. Two states where it is easy to see the effects of those changes were in Michigan and Wisconsin. The laws were changed in a way that allowed active collection of ballots in a way that had not been previously allowed. The harvested ballots being dropped off is visible as a vertical spike in the count. Without that vertical spike, which wouldn't have been allowed prior to 2020, Biden would have lost those states. To be clear, those votes are not fraud. They are real votes.

The effect was so pronounced that Joe Biden got a larger percentage of the vote from Black voters in Detroit than Barrack Obama received. Joe wasn't more popular than Obama. It was the rules changes. That is where the "steal" happened, and those rules are still in place. The 2024 election is for show. No GOP candidate can win a Presidential election so long as those active ground game regulations remain in place. Senile Old Joe, who finally beat Medicare, would have beat Trump if he'd stayed on the ballot, but it would have led to a lot more questions being asked about the system. Kamala winning will be much easier to explain.

 

[fishonjazz]

It depends on what you mean by "stolen". If you are asking for evidence of illegally cast ballots, hacked machines, or criminal activity on a level large enough to have changed the outcome of the election, there isn't any. There was the odd vote here and there with issues but in the context of the millions of votes cast in the election, it was miniscule.

However, the voting rules in the 2020 election were radically changed in many states in a way that may not have been entirely legal. Two states where it is easy to see the effects of those changes were in Michigan and Wisconsin. The laws were changed in a way that allowed active collection of ballots in a way that had not been previously allowed. The harvested ballots being dropped off is visible as a vertical spike in the count. Without that vertical spike, which wouldn't have been allowed prior to 2020, Biden would have lost those states. To be clear, those votes are not fraud. They are real votes.

The effect was so pronounced that Joe Biden got a larger percentage of the vote from Black voters in Detroit than Barrack Obama received. Joe wasn't more popular than Obama. It was the rules changes. That is where the "steal" happened, and those rules are still in place. The 2024 election is for show. No GOP candidate can win a Presidential election so long as those active ground game regulations remain in place. Senile Old Joe, who finally beat Medicare, would have beat Trump if he'd stayed on the ballot, but it would have led to a lot more questions being asked about the system. Kamala winning will be much easier to explain.

What's weird is that trump never explains that it was stolen in this manner. Seems like it would be a good idea for him to bring this up. I wonder why he doesn't.
Just pure stupidity maybe?

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[fishonjazz]

More lies from trump

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Germany took to social media to rebut comments made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

www.cbsnews.com

Germany is denying an assertion made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

"You believe in things like we're not going to frack, we're not going to take fossil fuel, we're not going to do things that are going to be strong, whether you like it or not," Trump said in his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants."

But on Wednesday, Germany's Federal Foreign Office decided to issue a rebuttal, echoing the former president's language.

"Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables," the Federal Foreign Office shared on X. "And we are shutting down – not building – coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest."

The German Foreign Office also poked at Trump for another comment he made during the debate.

"PS: We also don't eat cats and dogs,"

"Contradiction with facts and humor — that is the right answer to disinformation," German State Minister Anna Lührmann added on Thursday about her government's response.



Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[JFFR]

It depends on what you mean by "stolen". If you are asking for evidence of illegally cast ballots, hacked machines, or criminal activity on a level large enough to have changed the outcome of the election, there isn't any. There was the odd vote here and there with issues but in the context of the millions of votes cast in the election, it was miniscule.

However, the voting rules in the 2020 election were radically changed in many states in a way that may not have been entirely legal. Two states where it is easy to see the effects of those changes were in Michigan and Wisconsin. The laws were changed in a way that allowed active collection of ballots in a way that had not been previously allowed. The harvested ballots being dropped off is visible as a vertical spike in the count. Without that vertical spike, which wouldn't have been allowed prior to 2020, Biden would have lost those states. To be clear, those votes are not fraud. They are real votes.

The effect was so pronounced that Joe Biden got a larger percentage of the vote from Black voters in Detroit than Barrack Obama received. Joe wasn't more popular than Obama. It was the rules changes. That is where the "steal" happened, and those rules are still in place. The 2024 election is for show. No GOP candidate can win a Presidential election so long as those active ground game regulations remain in place. Senile Old Joe, who finally beat Medicare, would have beat Trump if he'd stayed on the ballot, but it would have led to a lot more questions being asked about the system. Kamala winning will be much easier to explain.

Thank you! Where did you get those graphs, is it easy for you to link me to them? Are there blogs, website, etc that go over things like this?


To be clear, what you are saying is that Trump lost because more people had access to voting? As a Republican, it has been disappointing to me that instead of winning by doing a better job of communicating their principles, the Republican Party has decided it's a better strategy to make voting more difficult.

I do think hiding the laptop story was a form of fraud that influenced the race.

 

[Sardines]

More lies from trump

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Germany took to social media to rebut comments made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

www.cbsnews.com

Germany is denying an assertion made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

"You believe in things like we're not going to frack, we're not going to take fossil fuel, we're not going to do things that are going to be strong, whether you like it or not," Trump said in his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants."

But on Wednesday, Germany's Federal Foreign Office decided to issue a rebuttal, echoing the former president's language.

"Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables," the Federal Foreign Office shared on X. "And we are shutting down – not building – coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest."

The German Foreign Office also poked at Trump for another comment he made during the debate.

"PS: We also don't eat cats and dogs,"

"Contradiction with facts and humor — that is the right answer to disinformation," German State Minister Anna Lührmann added on Thursday about her government's response.



Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

If there's one thing the Germans are known for it is their legendary sense of humor.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

To be clear, what you are saying is that Trump lost because more people had access to voting?

No. It has nothing to do with access to voting. The strategy exploits how Americans are broadly apathetic toward elections. Voter participation going all the way back to the 1930's typically lands somewhere between 55% and 60%. The rate varies significantly by age, with 60+ year olds around 70% turnout and 18-29 year olds around 40% turnout. Among races since the 2012 election, Black Americans have the highest turnout rate at 66%, followed by White Americans at 64%, Hispanic Americans at 48%, and Asian Americans at 47%.

The rules changes did nothing to increase access. What the rules changes did was allow campaigns to actively go to voters and solicit votes. Prior to 2020, campaigns weren't allowed to campaign within several hundred feet of a polling place. Observers were allowed but there were strict limits on any act that could be considered to bias the voters. For the 2020 election, prohibitions were lifted that allowed campaign staff to stand right next to a voter filling out a ballot and immediately take possession of the ballot.

Increased turnout at the polls does not cause a vertical spike in the vote count. Increased use of mail-in ballots does not cause a vertical spike in the vote count. Ballot harvesting causes that spike as the campaign staff returns with the votes filled out in their presence which they took possession of. The votes are all for one candidate because the staff works for the campaign, and they are all at the same time because they are operating on a provided schedule.

Because 40%-45% of American voters don't vote, there is a massive pool of potential votes legally allowed to be influenced by campaign staff and gathered. The active ground game now decides elections. Ideas, and even popularity of a candidate are of lesser relevance than how well organized the ground game is and how much money can be poured in to the harvesting effort.

Increasing voter access by allowing vote by phone or vote by computer, and allowing voters to change their vote all the way up to the deadline on election day would fix the problem, which is why we don't have it, and won't have it. For the system to work, they need all voters to have ballots in their possession, but have the returning of the ballots just hard enough that a massive number of people will be too lazy to do it on their own, and for changing votes after campaign staff has left with the ballot to be impossible.

 

[LogGrad98]

What's weird is that trump never explains that it was stolen in this manner. Seems like it would be a good idea for him to bring this up. I wonder why he doesn't.
Just pure stupidity maybe?

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

It is also smoke and mirrors again. The idea that the collection of ballots in this way is "illegal" is laughable. And at the core is the idea that more legitimate votes cast = bad for Republicans. Hence all the attempts by Republicans to suppress the vote in various states, or at least to make it harder to cast a ballot. Make it harder to vote, specifically for the middle class and the poor, and it is much more likely that democratic votes stay home, which then swings the balance to the Republicans.

Remember the mantra of politics today is "get elected at any cost". Emphasis on "any". So if it means disenfranchising huge swaths of people, well then that's what they'll do.

 

[fishonjazz]

The votes are all for one candidate

Just wanted to nit pick this a bit for accuracy sake. Ballots have a bunch of candidates on them. Im certain that these harvested ballots you speak of have votes for many different candidates on them.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Just wanted to nit pick this a bit for accuracy sake. Ballots have a bunch of candidates on them. Im certain that these harvested ballots you speak of have votes for many different candidates on them.

The party affiliations of voters is provided to the campaigns. It is the same lists they use to send out mailers. The campaign staff doing the harvesting are given a list of addresses of Democrat voters in a zone, and they visit as many on the list as they can. The ballots are almost entirely for one party because the staff only go to those houses to get the ballots. The entire effort is highly targeted.

 

[Deleted member 365]

During his press conference on Friday, Trump vowed that if reelected he would conduct mass deportations of immigrants in Springfield. "We're going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country," he said. "And we're going to start with Springfield"

In recent years, thousands of Haitian immigrants have resettled legally in Springfield after having fled violence and political turmoil in their home country. He wants to deport people who are in the US legally folks. You heard it right from his own mouth.

I wonder if he will also deport his wife Melania as well. She too is an immigrant.

He doesn’t want to deport white immigrants. He made that clear while president when he whined about how we don’t get immigrants from Scandinavian countries but from “********” countries.

 

[fishonjazz]

The party affiliations of voters is provided to the campaigns. It is the same lists they use to send out mailers. The campaign staff doing the harvesting are given a list of addresses of Democrat voters in a zone, and they visit as many on the list as they can. The ballots are almost entirely for one party because the staff only go to those houses to get the ballots. The entire effort is highly targeted.

It might your custom to just vote for every republican no matter who they are or what they are running for but some people will vote for some republicans and some democrats even if they are registered as a democrat (or republican)

 

[Red]

Republicans vow a robust 'ballot harvesting' operation after years of protest and fraud claims

Following Democrats’ success in recent elections collecting and delivering other voters’ ballots, Republicans are changing their tune on the practice for 2024.

www.nbcnews.com

Republicans pushing to embrace mail-in voting encounter widespread resistance

Trump's repeated attacks on mail-in voting have made it tougher for Republicans who see a desperate need for the GOP to encourage more ways to cast ballots.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Al-O-Meter]

It might your custom to just vote for every republican no matter who they are or what they are running for but some people will vote for some republicans and some democrats even if they are registered as a democrat (or republican)

The ballot harvesters did bring in some ballots for the opposite candidates. The dump wasn't 100% Joe Biden. There were a couple hundred Trump votes in the lot, but it was like 98% or 99% Joe Biden in those harvested ballot dumps. It has been a while, but I'll see if I can find the exact numbers.

 

[fishonjazz]

The ballot harvesters did bring in some ballots for the opposite candidates. The dump wasn't 100% Joe Biden. There were a couple hundred Trump votes in the lot, but it was like 98% or 99% Joe Biden in those harvested ballot dumps. It has been a while, but I'll see if I can find the exact numbers.

Nah I'm talking about non presidential candidates. Senators and whatnot.

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[fishonjazz]

Republicans vow a robust 'ballot harvesting' operation after years of protest and fraud claims

Following Democrats’ success in recent elections collecting and delivering other voters’ ballots, Republicans are changing their tune on the practice for 2024.

www.nbcnews.com

Republicans pushing to embrace mail-in voting encounter widespread resistance

Trump's repeated attacks on mail-in voting have made it tougher for Republicans who see a desperate need for the GOP to encourage more ways to cast ballots.

www.nbcnews.com

This article seems to contradict what AL has been typing.

the practice of having political volunteers or operatives collect and deliver ballots for other voters is explicitly legal in just one of those states (swing states), Nevada.

Ballot collection by anyone other than a close relative was banned by Republican-controlled legislatures in Arizona in 2016 and Georgia in 2021.

It’s been illegal for nonfamily members to return voters’ ballots in North Carolina and Michigan for years. In Pennsylvania, only voters who are disabled or casting an emergency absentee ballot can designate someone else to return their ballots.

And in Wisconsin, where Republicans have previously fought to ban ballot harvesting and the use of drop boxes, the law describes voters transporting their own ballots. State Republicans say they may encourage their supporters to start embracing ballot harvesting and the use of absentee ballot drop boxes if the state Supreme Court, as expected, reverses its ruling that banned most of them.

So it looks like Democrats aren't allowed to harvest ballots in these swing states.

This is great news @Al-O-Meter! Republicans can win now! (Though nominating trump for a 3rd time will definitely decrease their chances)

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[fishonjazz]

Also from that article red linked:
After Donald Trump refused to accept his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, he and his supporters falsely claimed that widespread ballot collection had occurred. A since-debunked film, “2000 Mules,” claimed that Democratic-aligned “mules” were paid to collect and drop off ballots in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Nevada, Republican officials say they are planning to go door to door collecting ballots, as well as spending time in areas like retirement communities and churches to offer voters assistance in delivering their ballots.

And while a robust ballot collection effort is new to Nevada Republicans, California Republicans have been utilizing the practice for years.

Two weeks before the 2022 election, California Republicans identified 18,000 people with GOP voting records who hadn’t yet cast a ballot. They started repeatedly contacting those voters and collecting mail ballots in hopes of electing Modesto Republican John Duarte in an open and competitive congressional race.

The state GOP’s ground game paid off: They saw a 34% uptick in votes cast before Election Day that year. Duarte won his district — which The Associated Press reported has a 14-point Democratic registration advantage — by just 564 votes.

In 2018, a Republican operative on a North Carolina congressional campaign was accused of illegally collecting voters’ ballots, resulting in the state’s election board ordering the election to be held again.

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[fishonjazz]

So to summarize ballot harvesting:
In almost all swing states ballot harvesting is illegal for both republicans and democrats.
In states (swing states or otherwise) where ballot harvesting is legal, it is legal for both democrats and republicans and both parties plan to use the strategy. Pretty fair and square.
We can close the book on ballot harvesting as the reason why one candidate will beat the other and instead look to the actual candidates themselves. Just going off the actual candidates Kamala should win the election being that there are more voters registered as democrats in america than republicans and the republican candidate is the more corrupt, scandalous, dishonest and immoral candidate in history who had a horrible approval rating while being president despite having the benefit of a great economy set up by his predecessor.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Apologies if this gets tedious but there is a lot to unpack.

explicitly legal in just one of those states (swing states), Nevada.

Nevada explicitly legalized ballot harvesting.

banned by Republican-controlled legislatures in Arizona in 2016 and Georgia in 2021.

Georgia banned it in 2021, after the 2020 election where it happened. Democrats sued to get their 2020 harvesting privileges back and lost in 2023. It might be possible for the GOP to win in Georgia. We'll have to see how the new-new laws hold up.

https://sos.ga.gov/news/court-continues-uphold-core-georgias-election-integrity-act

It’s been illegal for nonfamily members to return voters’ ballots in North Carolina and Michigan for years.

It is also legal to have nonfamily members return voters' ballots. It is legal and illegal. There are conflicting laws in Michigan. This issue could be sorted out if they wanted to. There is hundreds of hours of footage showing campaign staff dropping off harvested ballots in Detroit, where Joe Biden outperformed Obama. They have faces and license plates. If any of these people were prosecuted then the courts would have to decide if the legalization law or the illegalization law took precedence. None of these campaign staff have been prosecuted. In Michigan it is illegal and legal and definitely happening and not prosecuted. The GOP cannot win in Michigan.

And in Wisconsin, where Republicans have previously fought to ban ballot harvesting and the use of drop boxes,

Wisconsin has been the craziest. It was illegal, then in 2020 it was legal, then it was illegal, and finally via a 5-4 split decision in their state Supreme Court this past July, it is legal. The Republicans in Wisconsin are now embracing ballot harvesting because they have no other choice. They fought hard and lost. Embracing harvesting won't help. The GOP cannot win in Wisconsin.

Ballot drop boxes now allowed in Wisconsin after state Supreme Court reverses 2022 decision • Wisconsin Examiner

Justice Ann Walsh Bradley wrote for the majority that the decision “does not force or require that any municipal clerks use drop boxes."

wisconsinexaminer.com

Two weeks before the 2022 election, California Republicans identified 18,000 people with GOP voting records who hadn’t yet cast a ballot. They started repeatedly contacting those voters and collecting mail ballots in hopes of electing Modesto Republican John Duarte in an open and competitive congressional race.

This proves how powerful the practice is. Modesto is crazy republican. It is an extremely conservative area and repubicans have been unable to win even there until accepting this is the new reality. Unfortunately for republicans nationally, the nation isn't 80% conservative.