The question is simple. Compared to the VALUATION of where we thought our future would be with in total assets (from the trades or otherwise), have the prospects of our future valuations changed since the summer of 2022? If so, in which way?
Has our future position gotten better, worse, or stayed the same since trading Rudy/Donovan?
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homeytennis
Well-Known Member
Tanking sucks. Maybe Cooper turns into Adam Morrison and the No, 5 pick into Stockton or Malone. I compared Cooper's stats this season to two guys that won't get drafted: Richie Sanders of BYU and Tyson Degenhardt of Boise State and our two non-drafted guys compared decently to Cooper and both had instances where they out shined him. For what it's worth, Degenhart played in the NCAA tourney last season vs Cody and outshined him. I know faint praise but this was a dark night in Jazzland. Heck even my neighbor kid outrebounded Cooper and my neighbor kid is a 6'4" two guard that played for Idaho State. I'm not saying the Jazz should draft him either. I'm not looking forward to the tank next season.
Worse. We can go on forever about how unlikely it was to win with Don and Rudy, and to be clear I don’t think that was a guarantee at all, but I still found that path more likely to find success. Finding that Aaron Gordon type trade or Desmond Bane/Jaden McDaniels draft pick is very hard and doesn’t guarantee the ring, but I think we were in striking distance. Better execution on the margins would have gotten us further.
I think our current path is simply more unrealistic and we’d need a lot of luck to get to point at which we had one player like Don or Rudy. Lauri has been the only big revelation, but it came at the cost of severely harming our tanking chances years one and two. We got away with it year 3, but it still didn’t result in elite prospect and it came at the cost of damaging Lauri’s value high can’t be reclaimed without more damage to tanking.
I think our current path is simply more unrealistic and we’d need a lot of luck to get to point at which we had one player like Don or Rudy. Lauri has been the only big revelation, but it came at the cost of severely harming our tanking chances years one and two. We got away with it year 3, but it still didn’t result in elite prospect and it came at the cost of damaging Lauri’s value high can’t be reclaimed without more damage to tanking.
Of course it is worse now: we were so excited about all of those endless picks we got (and the vets we could trade for more picks!) but so far they turned into Keyonte, Brice, Filipowski and Collier. There is no sure future starter among all of them. And the future MN/CLE picks don't look to be good either.
Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
Further away than ever. Totally directionless with no end in sight
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
We’d be in good shape had we made the necessary moves before the season started after we traded DM and Gobert. 10-3 start was devastating.
the most obvious direction now is to try to unload the players that no longer fit our timeline (Clarkson, markkanen, collins) and get even worse.
Douchebag K
Well-Known Member
we have a future ?? clear as mud
jope
Well-Known Member
Buckle in for a decade-long rebuild just to maybe get back to where we started (We had the best record in the league there for a good bit with Don and Rudy). Toiling in meaningless games for years on end is what the majority on this forum were clamoring for ad infinitum. Came for cooper, and all we got was this lousy t shirt
Only way out is to get the guy. We were out of ways to get over the hump when we sold on Rudy and Donovan, but did not maximize the 2023 year well. If we can get some sort of premium asset from Lauri and hit big on our pick this year maybe this is still salvageable, otherwise think we're looking at a rough few years with very little to look forward to.
it would help if we don't waste our top pick again on a **** player (see last two drafts)
I dont know if the cutter is "before the trades" or "right after the trades".
I think we sold pretty close to peak value and had we kept those two guys we may be looking at Mitchell as a pending FA right now. So if the cutter is pre-trade, you have to account for the timeline where we never make the trades. In that scenario I dont think the overall value of our roster/picks would be this high right now.
If the cutter is post trade, then we have definitely lost some of the value. But that is what happens when you tank, accumulate young talent and dont see them pop up to something truely meaningful.
I think we sold pretty close to peak value and had we kept those two guys we may be looking at Mitchell as a pending FA right now. So if the cutter is pre-trade, you have to account for the timeline where we never make the trades. In that scenario I dont think the overall value of our roster/picks would be this high right now.
If the cutter is post trade, then we have definitely lost some of the value. But that is what happens when you tank, accumulate young talent and dont see them pop up to something truely meaningful.
Step-Back Lauri
Well-Known Member
Worse. They didnt tank properly from the go, and then Ainge helped Wolves become better by trading Conley there to stabilize them. Worsening those Wolves assets. I give D- for Ainge.
FrenchJazzFa
Well-Known Member
The best things at that stage will be to send DA to retirement....
Tanktastic
Well-Known Member
They have wasted many of those picks they had. And the picks that they still have, have declined in value because Cavs and Twolves are good.
So: much, much worse.
So: much, much worse.
Shad
Well-Known Member
Absolutely this. We thought the Corbin/Jefferson days were day. We are going to be bad for a very long time. All of our draft picks in the last 3 years are bench players at best.
We have to decide to pay kessler 30 million a year or not... while being the worst defense in the history of the league.
Our picks from the cavs and wolves won't ever be good.
Last years team was the worst and most unwatchable Utah Jazz team in the last 30 years.... and this forum confirms it when some game threads had 1 or 2 pages of comments about the game.
Outside of the summer league to watch tre Johnson and the 21 pick, I don't even want to watch 1 regular season game... hendricks, Johnson, and the 21st pick are the only reasons to watch any games.
I think there is a fundamental question here, that I don't have the answer for. Do teams who hit on later picks because they are good at drafting, or because they are lucky?
If you believe that wherever you draft there will be a good player available then it would have made more sense to be as competitive as possible every draft and just be really good at drafting at whatever spot we end up with.
If you believe that drafting well past a certain draft position is entirely based on luck, and that the statistics show that the higher you draft the better player you will have on average, then it makes sense to optimize our draft position every year.
The answer is obviously somewhere in the middle, but whatever side you fall on will determine how you feel about our strategy post DM and Rudy trades.
If you believe that wherever you draft there will be a good player available then it would have made more sense to be as competitive as possible every draft and just be really good at drafting at whatever spot we end up with.
If you believe that drafting well past a certain draft position is entirely based on luck, and that the statistics show that the higher you draft the better player you will have on average, then it makes sense to optimize our draft position every year.
The answer is obviously somewhere in the middle, but whatever side you fall on will determine how you feel about our strategy post DM and Rudy trades.
LoL.. wayyy too many glass half-fulls on the forum.
The tanking route is a path that takes at least 4-5 years to bear fruits.
We’re at what, year 1?
Patience, my young padawan.
The tanking route is a path that takes at least 4-5 years to bear fruits.
We’re at what, year 1?
Patience, my young padawan.
I think it has gotten worse, but not because the path we took was the wrong path initially. I think that 2022 team had exhausted its opporunities for contention and we had extremely limited avenues for improvement. That was an aging team that didn't seem like they liked each other very much(especially the two stars of the team) and was asset poor(except for Mitchell and Gobert).
I still think Ainge and Zanik made a mistake not leveling the team to the ground the very first year in an attempt to extract some marginal value... and all we got out of those is what? LAL pick that will end up in the 20s. Those two years in limbo were horrible decisions where we tried to be competitive, failed and missed on the best prospects. I can't fault them for falling to 5 this current year. But what they did in 2023 and 2024 is definitely something that can be held against the FO. We wasted 2 years for nothing... For Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams.
I said it at the time and I will keep saying it - whatever you decide - you decide it and pick a lane. You don't try to balance between two different chairs because at the end you end up on the floor with none of the benefits of either path.
I still think Ainge and Zanik made a mistake not leveling the team to the ground the very first year in an attempt to extract some marginal value... and all we got out of those is what? LAL pick that will end up in the 20s. Those two years in limbo were horrible decisions where we tried to be competitive, failed and missed on the best prospects. I can't fault them for falling to 5 this current year. But what they did in 2023 and 2024 is definitely something that can be held against the FO. We wasted 2 years for nothing... For Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams.
I said it at the time and I will keep saying it - whatever you decide - you decide it and pick a lane. You don't try to balance between two different chairs because at the end you end up on the floor with none of the benefits of either path.