Finishing in the bottom 4 gives us a 100% chance of keeping our pick.The issue is that we need to finish in the bottom 3, so if we drop 4 spots we still keep our pick.
5th gives us a 99.4% chance of keeping it.
6th gives us a 96.2% chance of keeping it.
7th gives us an 85.8% chance of keeping it.
I'm not gonna lose sleep if we finish in the bottom 7.