If Lottery Rigging Exist, Aren't the Jazz Safe?

[Agent#00]

Lottery isn't rigged. NBA trades is

 

[Coach Ellis]

Lottery isn't rigged. NBA trades is

How about the Jazz just don’t trade a future pick to get off Favors money to bring in Rudy Gay. Or maybe play to win in one of the worst drafts in recent memory when they had multiple high picks - instead they ranked their asses off and kept the pick. They get what they deserve if they lose the pick this year in a loaded draft.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Even if you believe only the lottery is rigged I’d question why you’d be a fan.

Its called being a masochist

 

[Park Bites]

Now I know everyone's first thought is why would the NBA have an interest in helping the Utah Jazz of all teams. The Jazz are one of the smallest markets and often the buttend of jokes on podcast and national broadcast.

And you would be right, but helping the Jazz jump the lottery would help the league avoid the biggest possible headache, the Thunder getting another lottery pick and all the complaining that would come with it.

The Ainge Boys tell Silver we are going to compete and not do tank shenanigans. You scratch our back, we scratch yours

So if lottery rigging actually exist, the Jazz should be beneficiaries of it this year.

This has been my thought all year.

The the Jazz are not getting the #1 pick but getting the #3 would make perfect sense. It is that pat on the back, thank you, now go back to you corner and leave the big boys alone.

 

[Park Bites]

Now I want to change my name to 40%er

 

[Max Porter]

The problem with Utah is that the fans support the team no matter how bad the team is. This doesn't create an incentive to boost the Jazz in the lottery. However, this year could be the exception. Like the OP says, it's not about helping the Jazz, it's about not helping the Thunder when the Thunder are already a dynasty.

To be honest I don't think that's a factor - I just don't think Ryan Smith thinks to himself...ok we'll make our money either way so we don't need to be that good. I don't get that vibe from the ownership at all. I think they recognize fans are tired of tanking so it's fatigue. But...when no free agents want to come here, I think it's the 2nd least liked destination in the NBA, then the only way to become a contender is through the draft.

 

[gomretat]

Your guess is a logical fallacy and is wrong in my case. The draft lottery is controlled by a single machine. Whereas, the outcomes of games have enough different variables that the outcome can only be influenced, rather than set.

Fair enough. But if either are true, being a fan is futile.

 

[BENTLEY]

Fair enough. But if either are true, being a fan is futile.

Yup. And yet I continue to watch every f’n Jazz game.


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[Thee Jazz Fan]

From what I’ve read, I’m gathering that it would be better for the Jazz to get the eighth spot in the lottery and then we’d move up to number four or five or whatever so that OKC doesn’t get the pick?

 

[slc]

From what I’ve read, I’m gathering that it would be better for the Jazz to get the eighth spot in the lottery and then we’d move up to number four or five or whatever so that OKC doesn’t get the pick?

Think if Jazz get the 8th pick they might also drop to 9th after lottery night and OKC gets their pick

 

[The Fresh Prince]

Lottery rigging doesn't exist. That it does is just yet another garden-variety conspiracy theory.

People buy into "the lottery is rigged" for the same reason conspiracy theories catch on anywhere: it makes a chaotic world feel like it has a plan. When your team gets "screwed" by the ping pong balls, it's way more satisfying to believe the league orchestrated it than to accept you just got unlucky.

The rigged lottery theory hits all the psychological buttons. First, it provides a clear explanation rather than messy probability -- "they rig it for big markets and ratings" -- which is easier to grasp than understanding how the odds actually work. Second, it takes away that helpless feeling of getting burned by random chance and gives you back some control, like you've figured out what's really going on. And third, it makes you part of a select group that "sees through the BS" while everyone else is naive enough to believe the league is playing it straight.

The lottery becomes a perfect storm for the same psychological needs that fuel conspiracy theories everywhere else: people wanting certainty, wanting to feel less helpless, and wanting to be part of the select group that's in on the secret.

1/10 ragebait.

I'm pretty certain last year's lottery summed everything up very well. 14th place Dallas goes up to 1 after coincidentally trading away their cash cow/saving grace. Never has that happened, but coincidentally it happens then and there.

I wish I could be the level of naive that some of you are.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

1/10 ragebait.

I'm pretty certain last year's lottery summed everything up very well. 14th place Dallas goes up to 1 after coincidentally trading away their cash cow/saving grace. Never has that happened, but coincidentally it happens then and there.

I wish I could be the level of naive that some of you are.

So why doesn't Utah ever get one of these presents from the league office?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yup. And yet I continue to watch every f’n Jazz game.


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Well to be fair you are a giant moron

 

[Flc]

The NBA is a sports entertainment enterprise. They never promised a completely and objectively fair sport. Their job is to make money for the owners and stakeholders, including the media companies that pay billions for the broadcast rights. The name of the game is to win interest from the casual fan. They need big-name superstars they can promote, and they need to keep people's interest in a few key markets.

Look at how the OKC Thunder have beat the system. Look at the Pacers last season. They've earned their success with smart front office moves.

I’d post my thoughts but FM already has. I’ve yet to hear an actual explanation that makes sense for the Luka trade. And LeBron’s alluded to some things as well.

And I also think it results in a lottery win for Utah.

-Mea culpa to the Jazz for knocking them to 5.
-Two of the projected top 3 want to play in Utah.
-All the Thunder stuff FM talked about.
-Ainge the Younger being laissez-faire with the draft pick.

 

[Flc]

This has been my thought all year.

The the Jazz are not getting the #1 pick but getting the #3 would make perfect sense. It is that pat on the back, thank you, now go back to you corner and leave the big boys alone.

I think they’ll get 2.

 

[Tanktastic]

Reading these types of discussions always makes me wonder less why people were ready to drink bleach and inject horse de-wormers etc.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If the lottery is rigged the jazz are never safe the nba wants its biggest stars going to larger markets over Utah.

A couple things:
1) The league wants its franchises to be healthy and highly valued, as well as keeping a star in a big market like LA.
2) The draft and player trades are unpredictable. A 2nd round pick turns out to be Nikola Jokic. A mid-FRP turns out to be Giannis or Kawhi. The trade that moves Paul George to the Clippers helps rebuild the Thunder. There’s enough variance to make the game watchable.

 

[framer]

I mean we actually watched the NBA take a first Pick away from the New Orleans Jazz (which was going to be Magic Johnson, a star everyone knew was going to be generational) and hand it over to the Lakers. All of this for the Jazz having the temerity to sign a washed up Gail Goodrich 3 years earlier. Lakers won a coinflip with Chicago to get that pick too. There is no way, no way at all that was just happenstance.

Jazz would have ended up selling Johnson anyway, so there is no universe, even if things were fair, that Johnson stays a Jazzman.

 

[LogGrad98]

If you believe the lottery is rigged, my guess is you would have to believe games are rigged. If either of those are true, why would you be a fan?

It's a lot easier to rig one lottery than hundreds of games, so your logic does not follow. That said, there have been score fixing and gambling scandals in the NBA for years. You'd be naive to think this has been 100% cleaned up. Teams paying players under the table. Those that come to our attention are likely just the tip of the iceberg. Enough corruption has been unearthed that you would be stupidly naive to think none of this ever happens. Mavs on the losing end of one of the worst trades in years that substantially helps the most profitable team in the league, then they beat extreme odds to get the #1 pick. Ok. But some people remain fans because they are fans of the game, not the league.

 

[rippimpc]

It’s remarkable, really almost poetic, how the timing of that one-sided Luka trade lined up perfectly with the leagues most valuable franchise (the Lakers) being sold and the league casually floating expansion. Total coincidence, I’m sure. After all, franchise valuations quite literally are determined by the most recent marginal price, and what luck that it happened right on schedule.

And then, of course, the Mavs being made whole again. Incredible story. They leap from a statistical rounding error of a chance at the 10-spot all the way to the number one pick.

Truly, what a delightfully topsy turvy league. So unpredictable.