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2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

stitches said:
Isn't there worry that with any other good ballhandler he would always take the backseat? If he did it with Dillingham, wouldn't he do the same with... any starting lead guard really... Keyonte... Sexton... etc. Meaning - what version of Sheppard do you think you are getting on an NBA team - the 25% usage version or the 15% version? And is the 15% version providing enough to justify being on the floor?
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I think there is some positive to being more like Dillingham. Dilly is always going to be the top dog (ironically coming off the bench for Kentucky). That is what his role has always been and will be in the NBA for better or worse. I think if you're looking for the guy who is most likely to be a lead guard in this draft it's definitely him. Having said that, when it comes to Sheppard I see this situation differently. I think being able to be effective with and without the ball is a virtue. I think you can always ask a player to shoot more/handle the ball more....that's not a difficult conversation. But you can only do that if they have the ability to do so and I think Shep has demonstrated that he can. It's kind of hard to believe that guys like Hali and Shai were seen as low potential prospects coming into the draft, but that was an oversight due to looking at the role they played instead of their actual ability. If differing is the issue but not ability, I think that's an easy thing to solve.


There are no guarantees, but Shep has a lot going for him imo. The play without Dilly, the amount of his shots that are unassisted, the peripheral indicators like his extreme steal rate, the fact that we've seen this so many times with Coach Cal.
stitches said:
He's like... Stockton... in the absolute ideal case scenario. In the 99.99th percentile outcome... I just don't think he gets there or anywhere close... in the 50th percentile scenario he's like... a more defensively attentive Kendall Marshall or something like that.
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Had discussions with others about this topic. Likelihood is that he's more of a super role player....but I still feel like that's not a bad outcome. Like he has the things you like Kendall Marshall for, but what if Kendall Marshall had Shep's shooting and defense? Totally different outcome for him. I think he could be a mix of several good role players. TJ McConnell with a sniperis what I think @Handlogten's Heros compared him to. I could see him being a mix of McConnell, Seth Curry, Pat Beverley. Maybe that mix doesn't amount to an all star (or maybe it does), but that's still pretty damn good for a middling outcome.
 
KqWIN said:
I think there is some positive to being more like Dillingham. Dilly is always going to be the top dog (ironically coming off the bench for Kentucky). That is what his role has always been and will be in the NBA for better or worse. I think if you're looking for the guy who is most likely to be a lead guard in this draft it's definitely him. Having said that, when it comes to Sheppard I see this situation differently. I think being able to be effective with and without the ball is a virtue. I think you can always ask a player to shoot more/handle the ball more....that's not a difficult conversation. But you can only do that if they have the ability to do so and I think Shep has demonstrated that he can. It's kind of hard to believe that guys like Hali and Shai were seen as low potential prospects coming into the draft, but that was an oversight due to looking at the role they played instead of their actual ability. If differing is the issue but not ability, I think that's an easy thing to solve.


There are no guarantees, but Shep has a lot going for him imo. The play without Dilly, the amount of his shots that are unassisted, the peripheral indicators like his extreme steal rate, the fact that we've seen this so many times with Coach Cal.


Had discussions with others about this topic. Likelihood is that he's more of a super role player....but I still feel like that's not a bad outcome. Like he has the things you like Kendall Marshall for, but what if Kendall Marshall had Shep's shooting and defense? Totally different outcome for him. I think he could be a mix of several good role players. TJ McConnell with a sniperis what I think @Handlogten's Heros compared him to. I could see him being a mix of McConnell, Seth Curry, Pat Beverley. Maybe that mix doesn't amount to an all star (or maybe it does), but that's still pretty damn good for a middling outcome.
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The thing is... McConnell/Pat Bev/Seth combo still doesn't sound great to me as a top pick. And I am not exactly sure at what level people expect his shooting and defense to be? Because Marshall shot 37% for his career, same with Patt Bev, McConnell -35%, Curry 43%. I think 43% is VERY ambitious. I think about 38% is more realistic... so... practically Marshall/Bev... And I'm not totally sold on him being a great defender at the next level either. He has the hands and feel... I'm just not sure he's big and long enough and laterally mobile enough. I think he has the feel and some ability on that end to not be a liability, I am just not sure he'd be great. I'm just having hard time formulating a realistic high end scenario that is exciting to me... maybe it's a failure of my imagination and Shai definitely fits that description that I had trouble imagining being amazing pre-draft... but with him... at least he had the size and length. I don't know... I will be pondering this one until the draft, but right now I'd probably have him outside my top 10... is that crazy?
 
theathletic.com

NBA Draft Big Board: Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan rise into Top 5

Depending on how the draft lottery shakes out, any of the top-10 players have a non-zero chance of being picked No. 1 overall.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Not sure if this has been posted, but Sam Vecenie posted his updated big board:
RxcPXmN.png
 
KqWIN said:
I think there is some positive to being more like Dillingham. Dilly is always going to be the top dog (ironically coming off the bench for Kentucky). That is what his role has always been and will be in the NBA for better or worse. I think if you're looking for the guy who is most likely to be a lead guard in this draft it's definitely him. Having said that, when it comes to Sheppard I see this situation differently. I think being able to be effective with and without the ball is a virtue. I think you can always ask a player to shoot more/handle the ball more....that's not a difficult conversation. But you can only do that if they have the ability to do so and I think Shep has demonstrated that he can. It's kind of hard to believe that guys like Hali and Shai were seen as low potential prospects coming into the draft, but that was an oversight due to looking at the role they played instead of their actual ability. If differing is the issue but not ability, I think that's an easy thing to solve.


There are no guarantees, but Shep has a lot going for him imo. The play without Dilly, the amount of his shots that are unassisted, the peripheral indicators like his extreme steal rate, the fact that we've seen this so many times with Coach Cal.


Had discussions with others about this topic. Likelihood is that he's more of a super role player....but I still feel like that's not a bad outcome. Like he has the things you like Kendall Marshall for, but what if Kendall Marshall had Shep's shooting and defense? Totally different outcome for him. I think he could be a mix of several good role players. TJ McConnell with a sniperis what I think @Handlogten's Heros compared him to. I could see him being a mix of McConnell, Seth Curry, Pat Beverley. Maybe that mix doesn't amount to an all star (or maybe it does), but that's still pretty damn good for a middling outcome.
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TJ McConnell with a laser… get it right.
 
stitches said:
How good is that? And just how accurate is his laser?
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His laser is as accurate as I have seen a laser. That’s a really good player… like top 15ish pg? Hard to say who is and isn’t a pg but I’d say TJ with a laser is a good starter with potential for more.
 
stitches said:
The thing is... McConnell/Pat Bev/Seth combo still doesn't sound great to me as a top pick. And I am not exactly sure at what level people expect his shooting and defense to be? Because Marshall shot 37% for his career, same with Patt Bev, McConnell -35%, Curry 43%. I think 43% is VERY ambitious. I think about 38% is more realistic... so... practically Marshall/Bev... And I'm not totally sold on him being a great defender at the next level either. He has the hands and feel... I'm just not sure he's big and long enough and laterally mobile enough. I think he has the feel and some ability on that end to not be a liability, I am just not sure he'd be great. I'm just having hard time formulating a realistic high end scenario that is exciting to me... maybe it's a failure of my imagination and Shai definitely fits that description that I had trouble imagining being amazing pre-draft... but with him... at least he had the size and length. I don't know... I will be pondering this one until the draft, but right now I'd probably have him outside my top 10... is that crazy?
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The caveat to that is....ok then tell me the players you would draft over Sheppard. If he's outside your top 10, you've got to have 10 players in this draft better than him and I think that's a huge struggle. I think it is crazy to think that there are 10 better prospects in this draft. If it's not crazy, then name the 10 players!

As a shooter....I mean he shot 52% from 3 and 83% from the line. I'm not going to but a 3FG % number on his projection because that is a useless number without volume....but as far as shooting prospects go he's as safe as anyone. I don't know if he'll be the best shooter in the league, but the point is he's all of these guys except that also great (on paper) at the things they struggle. Like maybe he's not quite as good of defender as Bev or shooter as Curry, but the expectation would be that he's also a way better shooter/offensive player than Bev and way better defender than Curry.
 
KqWIN said:
Castle not being a steals guy is a little worrying to me. I know UConn plays a very conservative defense, but the “he doesn’t go for them” argument doesn’t really jive with me. It’s another way of saying he doesn’t do one of the most important things on defense which is to create turnovers.

He can certainly be an outlier, but I guess what I’m saying is that if/when he becomes a good defender in the NBA he would be an outlier.

I think I would have Wallace/Black as better prospects for that reason.
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Wallace and Black were/are better perimeter defenders, but Castle is more switchable. Castle is bigger and a better ball handler than those two, and because of that he has higher upside, imo.

The best perimeter defender in this draft is Devin Carter.
 
KqWIN said:
The caveat to that is....ok then tell me the players you would draft over Sheppard. If he's outside your top 10, you've got to have 10 players in this draft better than him and I think that's a huge struggle. I think it is crazy to think that there are 10 better prospects in this draft. If it's not crazy, then name the 10 players!

As a shooter....I mean he shot 52% from 3 and 83% from the line. I'm not going to but a 3FG % number on his projection because that is a useless number without volume....but as far as shooting prospects go he's as safe as anyone. I don't know if he'll be the best shooter in the league, but the point is he's all of these guys except that also great (on paper) at the things they struggle. Like maybe he's not quite as good of defender as Bev or shooter as Curry, but the expectation would be that he's also a way better shooter/offensive player than Bev and way better defender than Curry.
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First... keep in mind I still have players to watch... but I'd take Castle, Sarr, Knecht, Clingan, Edey... probably Topic(still not sure)... probably Risacher(but need to watch more of him this year)... yet to watch Collier, Holland, Buzelis... and need to see more of Williams ... I suspect I'd like at least half of them better purely based on size/length/athleticism and surface level stats.
 
stitches said:
First... keep in mind I still have players to watch... but I'd take Castle, Sarr, Knecht, Clingan, Edey... probably Topic(still not sure)... probably Risacher(but need to watch more of him this year)... yet to watch Collier, Holland, Buzelis... and need to see more of Williams ... I suspect I'd like at least half of them better purely based on size/length/athleticism and surface level stats.
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I don't think all your criticisms of Shep are unfair...it's not a good draft. But if the main criticism is because you struggle to see him as a star, I think that applies to every single one of those players listed. There is not a player in this draft who I have an easy time seeing as a star player. I don't know if I'd say Shep has the greatest potential to be a star, but I can't identify anyone whose chances look a lot better.

The surface level stats on Sheppard are godly and the deeper dive stats on Sheppard are even more godly. I like the film too, even if he doesn't look the part.
 
stitches said:
The thing is... McConnell/Pat Bev/Seth combo still doesn't sound great to me as a top pick. And I am not exactly sure at what level people expect his shooting and defense to be? Because Marshall shot 37% for his career, same with Patt Bev, McConnell -35%, Curry 43%. I think 43% is VERY ambitious. I think about 38% is more realistic... so... practically Marshall/Bev... And I'm not totally sold on him being a great defender at the next level either. He has the hands and feel... I'm just not sure he's big and long enough and laterally mobile enough. I think he has the feel and some ability on that end to not be a liability, I am just not sure he'd be great. I'm just having hard time formulating a realistic high end scenario that is exciting to me... maybe it's a failure of my imagination and Shai definitely fits that description that I had trouble imagining being amazing pre-draft... but with him... at least he had the size and length. I don't know... I will be pondering this one until the draft, but right now I'd probably have him outside my top 10... is that crazy?
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Yes, that is crazy. Sheppard has the highest 3PT% projection of any rookie since 2014 (Doug McDermott). It would not surprise me if Sheppard was a > 42% 3PT shooter for his career.
 
KqWIN said:
I don't think all your criticisms of Shep are unfair...it's not a good draft. But if the main criticism is because you struggle to see him as a star, I think that applies to every single one of those players listed. There is not a player in this draft who I have an easy time seeing as a star player. I don't know if I'd say Shep has the greatest potential to be a star, but I can't identify anyone whose chances look a lot better.

The surface level stats on Sheppard are godly and the deeper dive stats on Sheppard are even more godly. I like the film too, even if he doesn't look the part.
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I think both Topic and Williams have star potential. If you watched Knecht and Sheppard matched up in the NCAA tournament, Knecht was better at self-creation and pure scoring, enough to suggest that Knecht could be a secondary star possibly.

I think in terms of role and impact, Sheppard could be similar to Fred VanVleet, with somewhat better passing.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Yes, that is crazy. Sheppard has the highest 3PT% projection of any rookie since 2014 (Doug McDermott). It would not surprise me if Sheppard was a > 42% 3PT shooter for his career.
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3FG% doesn't really matter if there's no context around volume/degree of difficulty. I don't expect him to be >42% because I expect him to shoot a much higher volume in the NBA and unless he's literally Curry it will be hard to make that mark....but I still think he will be one of the better shooters in the NBA. Dame, the second greatest shooter ever, shoots the same percentage as Kendall Marshall. It's a very incomplete way to look at things.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I think both Topic and Williams have star potential. If you watched Knecht and Sheppard matched up in the NCAA tournament, Knecht was better at self-creation and pure scoring, enough to suggest that Knecht could be a secondary star possibly.
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Maybe....but more than Sheppard? Idk about that.

Knecht is also 3 years older than Sheppard. If I had to bet on one being a star, I would bet on Sheppard being able to uptick his usage into being a star versus Knecht being able to maintain what he's doing in the NBA.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Can Sheppard create his own shot at the NBA level. Isnt that really the biggest question? That and can he finish at all in the paint.
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I think that is the big question and the answer is probably not....but what are those chances versus the chances of another prospect doing the thing preventing them from being a star?

As far as finishing in the paint.....Shep shot 67% at the rim with only 8% of those being assisted. Maybe that's because he got so many pick 6's....but still...those are great numbers. Athleticism/size is a real concern for him, I can't deny that. But he is awfully good at most of the things that athleticism is supposed to help you with.
 
KqWIN said:
I think that is the big question and the answer is probably not....but what are those chances versus the chances of another prospect doing the thing preventing them from being a star?

As far as finishing in the paint.....Shep shot 67% at the rim with only 8% of those being assisted. Maybe that's because he got so many pick 6's....but still...those are great numbers. Athleticism/size is a real concern for him, I can't deny that. But he is awfully good at most of the things that athleticism is supposed to help you with.
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His athleticism isnt really a concern in the slightest for me. I think he is a plus athlete. It's more just size and his overall experience level/assertiveness of being a lead-ball handler.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
His athleticism isnt really a concern in the slightest for me. I think he is a plus athlete. It's more just size and his overall experience level/assertiveness of being a lead-ball handler.
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I think those are fair concerns, just not as concerning as the concerns I have for others. I just see so many signs that would indicate he can handler more. I wouldn't feel as strongly if he was poor without Dilly or if all of his shots were assisted. Being a coach Cal guard also makes you wonder especially when DJ freaking Wagner got to be the starter.

How much more...goes back to the main question you presented. I could see him being a PG who is really good in PnR, but not as good at beating switches. Kinda like Conley. Being able to perform in switching situations (both sides of the ball) is probably his biggest weakness rn.
 
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