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regression to the mean has nothing to do with what we can expect within the next few events (drafts). It's simply the mean that matters.

A season or two from Philly and OKC probably rival what we've don this year. (Remember when the Thunder basically shut down Shai two years in a row after midseason or so?)

The trades really helped them get winning players (even though they were "selling"). Plus their rookies have really come into their own lately. And, they don't seem to be purposely sitting guys much these days.

Yeah, spot on. And I think this is increasingly true (perhaps because of somewhat different skills emphasized in today's game compared to earlier eras, a more even pool of talent, or whatever else.)

This doesn't deserve it's own thread, but doesn't really fit with any of the threads, so maybe it's as good a place as any to put it: I've mentioned in another thread that there seems to be movement toward convergence in the value of draft picks, especially compared to a generation ago. In...

Who do you all have at the fifth pick (since that's the real prize of passing the Wizards)?

The wheel uniquely allows prospects to know what the draft landscape looks like the following year, and thereby make a better informed decision about the pros/cons of staying another year. As it is now, the top picks can basically only count on the prospect that if they don't come out one year...

For anyone who cares to give an assessment about this idea for rejiggering the lotto odds to try to solve tanking, I welcome your thoughts. (And yes I know there are ideas that do away with the lotto altogether that could well be more attractive -- I'm just trying to think what's possible IF the...

This story indicates that league investigating Thunder for sitting all five starters recently against Blazers (a game Thunder still won). Also says Sixers being investigated for possibly sitting out PG & Maxey too much...

Serious question: is having back spasms a problem that can me indicated/monitored by medical tests, or is it one of those conditions that only the individual experiencing it will be able to judge?

Yeah, if you're intending to tank until you get THE GUY, keeping it up long enough can be pretty difficult -- especially when building on years of not-terrible draft hauls. Maybe we're willing to keep recycling until we get the prize (like Philly did with Michael Carter-Williams), but that's...

Maybe we can go on a long winning streak to finish 6th and then get the first pick. ;) If nothing else, it would be quite entertaining to see all the see all the switching emotions in the fanbase.

Sorry I misinterpreted your intentions. I took your post as a counter to my OP, as @The Midnight apparently did too. I should have been less defensive in my response and more careful in trying to discern your point. Yes, I totally agree with your key point that teams typically experience down...

True enough

Yeah, of all of the teams that coulda/shoulda gotten to the top, they're probably #1

Great article. Thanks for the post. Andy Larsen seems to suggest that it's in line with what he's hearing behind the scenes as well. It seems that the Jazz are heading toward a (somewhat deliberate, slow) total teardown in order to try to finish bottom-3 at least two years in a row. I'm...

He had some impressive moments against the Jazz in preseason. But he didn't strike me as a real tanking prize. But, as you say, he's 17. I'm really bad at judging what high NBA potential either looks like or doesn't look like at that age.

Andy was one of the first and hardest on the tank bandwagon. I think his "conversion" is more of a philosophical conversion (that it's bad for the league), than a practical one (I would guess he still largely agrees with what the Jazz have done).

If Malone had had to play today's rotating defense out to the three point line, he might have sung a different tune. I think we underestimate how much toll the changing defensive rules/landscape places on players' bodies.