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I think the point (at least for me) is that just saying "best odds" is not a good justification for then moving to "massive effects." The difference between best and 2nd best odds is not always "massive." And I'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where the difference is best labeled...

Yeah, didn't see that until after I had posted -- sorry.

They don't have to get into the top 4 in order to get a 5th or 6th post-lottery draft slot (if they finish 5th or 6th pre-lottery). It's only if they finish 7th pre-lotto that they can only keep their pick if they move up to 1-4 in the lotto. But they have plenty of possibility (given the...

Not to single you out, because I think you're a good poster and I've seen this type of argument from many other people, but I just can't get behind this kind of rhetoric about "massive effects." I just want to hear someone who uses this kind of phrasing/thinking to use real numbers to try to...

How do they have to hit top-4 to keep their pick? If they hit 5th or 6th, they still keep their pick, don't they (top 6 protected)? If they finish 5th in standings, they have 21.8% of hitting 5th or 6th in the lotto (in addition to their odds of hitting top 4). If they finish 6th worst, then...

Not sure where you're getting your percentages from. Going from Tankathon, I get them at 63.9% if they finish 5th worst (possible, though probably not likely). At 6th they'd be at 43.4%. Even if they stay at 7th, they have 34.5% odds of keeping their pick. You're not calculating as if the...

Sure, I'm for this.

Appropriately stated in the tank thread, since gaining the ultimate spoils of tanking, imo, involves even more (or at least as much) luck than the luck involved in winning a championship.

I'm both surprised and not surprised that nobody here seems to have either noticed or cared that Hardy was very unhappy after the game yesterday, largely with the level of defensive effort/attention to detail. Especially angry about how easy it was for Olynyk and Zion in the paint. Went on a...

Yeah, I was thinking this, too.

reliable defense

Raptors kindly keeping it hard for us to fall to 5th worst record.

Collier's been unable to get any running game going so far.

They're even matching their hairstyles in each game so far. But even though they have some similarities, they carry themselves so differently (in gait) that it's really not hard to confuse them.

That was a very tankworthy quarter. First for the Jazz. Then, after Olynyk sat, for the Pels.

Great win for them, but seems that Sabonis went out with a hamstring injury.

Yeah, plus Potter and Harkless have stopped moonlighting with the Jazz quite as much. Hope Harkless gets a real shot at a full NBA roster position at some point. It seems he can really play, but he's just old enough that t may be iffy for him.

1.5% to be precise, for Flagg. But this is the right way to think of the Flagg stakes. If someone thinks the difference between picks 5-7 this year is so important that it will forever change the Jazz's trajectory (which I personally don't think is likely), then I guess you can worry about...

Not bad, considering the odds.

How many attempts did this one take?