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Not that I believe in redemption to begin with, but shouldn't a person at the very least actually admit doing something before any sort of redemption could happen?

No, the NBA teams have gotten objectively worse at drafting. It's that simple. Here's an article, along with its statistical analysis, as a start. https://quantimschmitz.com/2022/11/01/have-nba-teams-gotten-better-at-drafting/

33rd. Crazy thing is, 3 of his Villanova teammates were drafted ahead of him that very year. Including Omari Spellman who is currently unemployed after a middling year in Korea(the South one).

Here's some more crazy trivia. Last time a team drafted a player at #1 who became an MVP was 2008. 16 years ago and even then, it was actually a disastrous pick for that team. Last time we can say that a team drafted a absolute all-time great who could lead teams to championships at #1...

Well, here's a little chart I just whipped up. Top 10 picks over a period of a decade and their BPM. I chose to start in 2020 because it's unfair to take players with fewer than 4 seasons under their belt and compare them to seasoned vets. I chose BPM because I like the stat and because...

Number one picks the last 20 years. 2004 Dwight Howard 2005 Andrew Bogut 2006 Andrea Bargnani 2007 Greg Oden 2008 Derrick Rose 2009 Blake Griffin 2010 John Wall 2011 Kyrie Irving 2012 Anthony Davis 2013 Anthony Bennett 2014 Andrew Wiggins 2015 Karl-Anthony...

40 is a an okay sample, but we're not getting 40 of anything. We're talking about 1 or 2 picks. That's the heart of this issue.

Been there, done that. Got Dante and honestly, **** Dante. I wish we had just traded that pick for anything.

Which is exactly what I detest about tanking. Small samples suck because outliers mean more. I'd be willing to bet my house that Walker Kessler will hit at least 50 of his next 100 free throws, but I would obviously not be willing to risk my house that he will hit one out of his next two. The...

It's not a binary choice, though. There are other ways. The way we've used to build every Jazz team worth anything the past 40 years, for example. Work with what you have, identify talent, obtain it by any means necessary. The Jazz have had fewer top 5 picks during their existence than I...

There's a difference between where MVP level players are drafted and overall draft, specifically because it is a much smaller sample. It doesn't necessarily average itself out as a larger sample would. It's much more of a crapshoot, as you're refusing to acknowledge. Yes, Nikola and Brunson...

Do you figure a lack of #1 picks winning in the past decade(or in the foreseeable future) is an outlier or a reflection that the draft and the NBA are fundamentally different now than they were 40 years ago?

You're the one who narrowed it down to franchise cornerstones, not me. You're just moving the goalposts now, and you're not even providing any numbers. Not that it matters all that much. All these numbers and math. This isn't a video game; this is real life. Of course tanking 2-3 more...

This. The numbers seem to suggest that while a higher pick does improve your chances of finding your stud, being able to identify talent is the more important factor. If you've got 5-6 lottery picks and you can't find your All-NBA franchise cornerstone with those, what difference will...

Ok, let's look at this the other way then. In the past 30 years, the average spot where the NBA MVP was picked has been 9. Last decade, it's trended lower and it's 17. Of course, Jokić repeating skews that, but a number one pick hasn't won the MVP in more than a decade. Nor has anyone picked...

They just won a 4-3 first round series against a 47-win team who can't shoot worth crap in 2024. Not sure how any of this is vindicating.

I was going to make a comment about how during Jalil Okafor's 6 years in the NBA, the best Okafor in the league was Emeka...and he missed 5.5 of those years with a back injury. But you know, low hanging fruit and all.

I didn't say Embiid was just luck. I'm saying you gotta do better than hit one of the 8 or so lottery picks you've had. Else everything is bad luck. Okafor being garbage is bad luck.

The reason they're GMs and you and I are some dudes on the internet is that they should know better than us. Including doing due diligence on stuff like that.