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Don't know where else to put it, but Locke dropping some truth bombs (imo) the last couple days on his show: Jazz have done a masterful job tanking this year The tanking (or bottom-5 finish, as he prefers) model works almost all of the time, but only if your expectations are to build a playoff...

That's kind of the situation I was thinking about, but with the reverse conclusion. I'm not much of an athlete at all, but I've been a much better biker than many people, I think, at times in my life. But biking has never done much to leave me with anything but skinny-ish legs. (Again, not...

I've been in academics for decades. I would not consider this plagiarism at all. While true that it's nicer to include the exact source, the essence of plagiarism is trying to pass off someone else's ideas as your own. @homeytennis did not do this. (This is without getting into the issue of...

Yes (except 14%, rather than 15%).

Maybe it's more accurate (or psychologically better) to think of things as rising in the lottery rather than falling. Our base pick is 5th (if things hold the rest of the way). That's the most likely single outcome. The lottery is a chance to rise beyond that. If the lottery ball falls for us...

Think this was pretty well is the bag some games ago.

A question from my own ignorance: how many players are out there do you all know that have significantly built up the lower half of their bodies? While I don't doubt that there are some positive things that can be done with lower bodies, my immediate thought is that it's much easier to become...

Yeah, that's all that matters, ultimately. Jazz actions seem to be telling us they think there's a big difference between 5 & 6.

I've also been somewhat influenced by the argument that draft mistakes are typically made high in the draft when you draft someone hoping to be a #1 who turns out not to be able to carry the load. Better, I've heard some draftniks argue, to draft someone you're confident to be a great role...

This could be true. If so, it would be an anomaly of a sort, however. The relative difference in value between picks (on average) generally declines with each pick. Difference in value between 1 & 2 is typically much larger than difference in value between 5 & 6. (Remember a couple weeks ago...

Ouch

Good point. I suspect it hasn't, as you say, changed enough. But yeah, not 100% sure.

I'm almost certain this possibility does not exist at this point (post-Bird). I can't imagine it wouldn't be exploited if it was still available. (But I don't have a direct reference to point to, so it's probably worth continuing to see if there's someone who has a more researched answer.)

They all know (presumably) that the worst record doesn't mean a better chance for the #1 pick. (Although I assume that the reason they have Washington picking #1 is better explained as long habit, since Wizards were worst almost all of the year, or that the mocks were produced when the Wizards...

The article I quoted from above strengthens my suspicion that there's two separate things going on with the draft that are not often enough acknowledged as separate: The NBA's notion that top picks should be awarded to the teams that need talent the most (the worst teams). In other words, the...

Yeah that's why I was asking homey who he wants for the 5th pick. Do you have a guy at 5th that you're yearning for? (It's OK if you don't. I certainly am not enough into the draft this time to have an informed opinion.)

I'm kind of behind on things around here, so I assume that many of you have seen this article from Bontemps and Felton on ESPN on tanking. For those that haven't, one of the key things I liked was they interviewed Evan Wasch, the NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics. Some of...

Every loss (as an individual event) doesn't help on the probability of the lottery balls at this point. The only way we can change (reduce) the number of lottery balls we have is to win 4 of our last 7 games (and that's only with the assumption that the Pels lose out). Nothing we can do now...

I know it's a schtick, but curious if you really have someone in mind that the upcoming game will make a difference for.

So (at least from the part devoted to the Jazz), the idea is: Consider trading out for future draft capital if don't get top 2 (chance of Ace or VJ becoming HIM is too low) Big gap after 4 in the draft Hmmm ...