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It's supposed to be 3.9 for the #2 seed, so maybe Tankathon is rigged in our favor? ;)

It's very easy ex post facto to come up with narratives that people are willing to believe for why a result must have been rigged (and especially so when there's a great draftee on the line). It's probably much harder (unlikely in the world of odds) to come to a result that won't produce a...

Well, since the Pels were outscored by the Wolves by 37 over two games, at least they were kind enough to win the first, before getting blown out by 41 tonight.

Maybe too early to fully trust ChatGPT? (Or just a typo?) Both Spurs and Pistons had first pick in 2023?

Sorry that some will not be able to read it but Andy Larsen calculated the value of this loss (win) by the Jazz (if the Jazz end up finishing 2nd to the Wizards 1st in the tank race, which is by no means assured) to be about 20% of the value of a late 2nd round pick. So yeah, odds are pretty...

As others have rightly pointed out, there's way, way, way too little data in the 5 years since the lottery odds changed to do this. Even with the older odds, still far too little data to make any kind of judgment.

As a JHS stan out of the draft, I'll wait for him to start showing a bit of PG skills. Right now he's at 5 assists in 74 minutes. He has the size of a SG, to be fair, but part of the appeal was that he was a PG.

Yeah, that's kinda my point. So much goes "unpunished," that it wouldn't surprise me if the league is guiding teams more than we realize about where the lines are.

Kinda wonder how much guidance teams ask for and the league gives surrounding tanking issues. League has to know that its system incentivizes teams to lose. You'd also think that it's in the league's interest to (at least quietly/behind the scenes) let it be known where the lines are between...

Mostly agree (and certainly do for Detroit). Maybe the counter example is the Hornets? Seems (from the outside) that they usually have more talent than their record shows.

Agree with this, but it's not just the team's play since the Collins injury that leads me to the conclusion.

Beginning to think that the Jazz either think that there's a super-big difference between the 5th and 6th best prospects in the class or they're paranoid that they'll somehow start winning and fall to 4th or (who knows how, at this point?) even 5th in the lotto odds.

That would be my spot, too.

regression to the mean has nothing to do with what we can expect within the next few events (drafts). It's simply the mean that matters.

A season or two from Philly and OKC probably rival what we've don this year. (Remember when the Thunder basically shut down Shai two years in a row after midseason or so?)

The trades really helped them get winning players (even though they were "selling"). Plus their rookies have really come into their own lately. And, they don't seem to be purposely sitting guys much these days.

Yeah, spot on. And I think this is increasingly true (perhaps because of somewhat different skills emphasized in today's game compared to earlier eras, a more even pool of talent, or whatever else.)

This doesn't deserve it's own thread, but doesn't really fit with any of the threads, so maybe it's as good a place as any to put it: I've mentioned in another thread that there seems to be movement toward convergence in the value of draft picks, especially compared to a generation ago. In...

Who do you all have at the fifth pick (since that's the real prize of passing the Wizards)?