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Kinda tough to say, but I'll say worse (I am viewing this exercise as comparing our potential immediately after that trade was made, and today). Its just the nature of the stockpiling pick game, the assets depreciate. Its speculative gambling on the quality the picks turn out to be, and most...

However things shake out with changes, this lottery was absolutely an example of why the current system is the most absolutely worst thing they could possibly do, aside from a system that further flattens the odds. All the teams that got bumped out of the top slots are now just going to...

Man, if we managed to trade Lauri for #2 and kept #5 I would be ecstatic, that would totally erase the disgusted feeling I've had since the lottery. If we managed to trade him for #3 or even #4 I'd also still be pretty happy. As it is right now I've been assuming the lottery results are...

I mean, if you're grouping them, then its more likely that someone in just either the 6 or the 7 spot will win the #1 than we do individually. So, yeah, much better chances that someone in the 4-8 spot will end up #1 or #2 if you are combining all of them. We still have a better shot than any...

There's some kind of rounding error going on in this chart though. Some of the teams percentages (2 and 3 in particular) don't add up to 100%

I mean, we have a slightly better chance of landing 1-4 (52.1%) so technically we will "probably" end up better than 5. But yes pretty close to a coin flip.

You can't build a team around Giannis and Flagg. Not on the same timeline, Giannis will be able to leave before Flagg can hit his prime. If you're trading for Giannis, you have to have a winning team in two years. If you're building around Flagg, you want to peak in about 5 years. Not...

I dunno the problem with trading for him is you have to cash in a lot of your resources to get it done. But he's only got 2 more years left on his deal and if you can't get him to re-sign in that time, and can't assemble the rest of a championship team on that timeline, you basically just lost...

I remember really hating Bolerjack as an announcer. Then one year for league pass I decided to do a thing where I watched all of the games with the home team's broadcast team. I don't hate him as much anymore. Don't remember specifics but there's some really terrible announcers out there...

I dunno its like, in a strategy card game, you want to set up your deck to give yourself multiple ways to win. My optimimum is to get this combination of cards, and if I do I will win. But if I don't get that combination of cards, I want a backup plan involving a different combination of...

For Charlotte..... Made the playoffs twice in that 15 year period. Draft odds were .17% 25% 19.9% .17% .8% .8% 1% 6% 1.8% 1% 12.5% 13.3% 14% in that period That factors out to be.. about a 35% chance they didn't win in that time period. Certainly not lucky but not horrible odds it happened...

While I think conspiracy theories about the draft are silly (the Ewing draft maybe being the only one I'd consider might have been rigged), I will admit sometimes its kind of fun to indulge in what if speculation, same as its fun to engage in superstitions, as long as you don't buy into it super...

Wasn't actively posting at this point so I'll admit I just brushed past it in catching up with the thread. It does mostly achieve your stated objectives of keeping the average good pick going to the worst teams, but rewarding the best teams with the best chance at the top 5, which would...

Kinda tough exercise before we know the lotto results. In a way its nice because with all the draft picks and young players we have a lot of options open. What you do with these guys depends on what direction you want to go. For this off season I'm assuming that 1) We expect to get a guy in...

Ah that is a good point I didn't consider. Trading cap space would be hard, just because draft pick trades are usually really future things and it would be kind of hard to guarantee that you would still have it available. You could still do 2nd round trades, and draft day trades for players...

It is an interesting suggestion. My gut feel would just be that its a little too complicated to not have exploitable edge cases that will result in unintended consequences, but those may be able to be ironed out with small rule changes. The biggest problem might be that it sounds to me like...

Leaning in to the tanking concept instead of trying but failing to disincentivize it means the tanking teams get what they want faster and stop tanking sooner. So teams tank for less time, and fewer teams are doing it at the same time. All flattening the odds does is make it take more time to...

All 30 Team Owners are going to agree to a system that intentionally ensures that their team will never receive an expected superstar through the draft? I'm not ever going to believe in a conspiracy theory that says the owners are in on it. In addition to them you also have to rig the lottery...

This is why I don't trust AI with anything right now. (side story, I once saw a commercial I thought was kind of funny that talked about great shows having one-word titles and included "ER" in the mix. I tried to search for the commercial, and the AI overview came back saying something along...