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Colton's 2018 mock draft compilation, v 3.0 (final version)

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colton

All Around Nice Guy
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Welcome to the traditional annual "Colton's Mock Draft Compilation". This is the 2018 mock draft compilation, v. 3.0. Versions 1.0 and 2.0 can be found here https://jazzfanz.com/threads/coltons-2018-mock-draft-compilation-v-1-0.92981/ and here https://jazzfanz.com/threads/coltons-2018-mock-draft-compilation-v-2-0.93249/. This is the final update. For this compilation I used 22 mock drafts, all of which had been updated Jun 8 or later. As per @Xthren's request, I added three analytical models. I also added a couple of "big boards" (as opposed to mock drafts), a few more mocks I found, and removed some mocks that were out of date.

Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick. Currently the Jazz pick at 21 and 52 but of course trades can always happen.

1 DeAndre Ayton
2 Marvin Bagley III
3 Jaren Jackson Jr
4 Luka Doncic
5 Mohamed Bamba
6 Michael Porter Jr
7 Wendell Carter Jr
8 Trae Young
9 Mikal Bridges
10 Kevin Knox
11 Collin Sexton
12 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
13 Miles Bridges
14 Lonnie Walker
15 Robert Williams
16 Zhaire Smith
17 Troy Brown
18 Aaron Holiday
19 Kevin Huerter
20 Mitchell Robinson
20 Khyri Thomas
20 Jerome Robinson
23 Donte DiVincenzo
24 Elie Okobo
25 Chandler Hutchison
25 Keita Bates-Diop
27 Jacob Evans
28 Dzanan Musa
29 Josh Okogie
30 De'Anthony Melton
31 Jalen Brunson
32 Grayson Allen
33 Moritz Wagner
33 Melvin Frazier
35 Gary Trent Jr
35 Anfernee Simons
37 Bruce Brown
38 Omari Spellman
38 Jevon Carter
38 Hamidou Diallo
41 Rawle Alkins
42 Landry Shamet
42 Rodions Kurucs
44 Jarred Vanderbilt
45 Shake Milton
45 Raymond Spalding
47 Isaac Bonga
48 Trevon Duval
48 Kevin Hervey
50 Chimezie Metu
51 Kenrich Williams
52 Devonte' Graham
53 Brandon McCoy
53 Issuf Sanon
55 Justin Jackson
56 Malik Newman
56 Tony Carr
58 Devon Hall
59 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
59 Goga Bitadze



For full data see https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/nba mock draft compilation 2018 - v.3.0.htm; sorry about the messed up formatting of the hyperlinks there but I don't have time to fix that.

Some observations about where the Jazz pick:

Pick 21
* The "best guess" for pick 21 is Kevin Huerter. Six mocks have the Jazz picking him there. The next best guess is Khyri Thomas; four mocks have the Jazz picking him.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have available at pick 21 is Michael Porter Jr. (One of the analytical models has him ranked 26.)
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 21 is Lonnie Walker. Four mocks have him as available there and one mock has the Jazz selecting him.
* The consensus "will be available at 21" players are Aaron Holiday, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, and below.


Pick 52
* There is no "best guess" for pick 52.
* The highest ranked player that any of the mock drafts have the Jazz picking at pick 52 is Anfernee Simons. Eleven mocks have him as available there and one mock has the Jazz selecting him.

----

Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting. Where the players ended up tied, I used their median and average rankings (in that order) to be the tie-breakers in how I listed them.

Mock drafts used (in order of last updated):
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/19/n...-trae-young-suns-kings-hawks-cavaliers-knicks Jeremoy Woo Jun 19
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/ Gary Parrish Jun 19
https://jazzfanz.com/threads/2018-jazzfanz-mock-draft.93194/ everyone Jun 19
http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft ? Jun 18
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/23794672/2018-nba-mock-draft-perfect-picks-every-team ? Jun 18
http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Mock-Draft ? Jun 18
http://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2018mock.php David Kay Jun 18
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/new...-kings-76ers-lakers/f7dzlgimj7w913070zz2o6smq Sean Deveney Jun 18
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...nd-stars-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic/610055002/ Jeff Zillgitt, Sam Amick and Michael Singer Jun 18
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html ? Jun 17
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-big-board-top-30.html ? Jun 15
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...elton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton Kevin Pelton Jun 15
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic-trae-young-lottery Jonathan Givony Jun 14
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-7-0/ Benny Nadeau Jun 13
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-7-0/ Jesse Blancarte Jun 13
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-7-0/ Moke Hamilton Jun 13
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2018-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-7-0/ Steve Kyler Jun 13
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/ Kevin O'Connor Jun 13
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...model-makes-nba-draft-projections#methodology Paul Sabin and Seth Walder Jun 13
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/6/11/17444258/nba-mock-draft-2018-haiku-luka-doncic-deandre-ayton Tom Ziller Jun 11
http://www.tothemean.com/2018/06/10/nba-draft-2018.html Jesse Fisher Jun 10
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21307077/nba-draft-rankings-espn-top-100-prospects-2018 Jonathan Givony Jun 8


If you have suggestions/requests for other mocks that should be included for next time, let me know.
 
Meh... Grayson is doing what first round picks in the 20s get to do when they land in winning situations... sit on the pine and learn. If he was on the Hawks or Suns he'd be playing and having his moments here and there.

I'm fine with the pick... it makes sense from a position standpoint... there were guys I liked more, but the guys we generally liked more as a message board (huerter and Donte) were taken ahead of him. I loved me some Okobo, but he hasn't been that great and the Phoenix PG minutes have been there for the taking.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Meh... Grayson is doing what first round picks in the 20s get to do when they land in winning situations... sit on the pine and learn. If he was on the Hawks or Suns he'd be playing and having his moments here and there.

I'm fine with the pick... it makes sense from a position standpoint... there were guys I liked more, but the guys we generally liked more as a message board (huerter and Donte) were taken ahead of him. I loved me some Okobo, but he hasn't been that great and the Phoenix PG minutes have been there for the taking.
Click to expand...
Yeah but they could have realistically traded back, gotten him, and pick up an early 2nd.

I'm fine with the pick as well. Mostly.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Yeah but they could have realistically traded back, gotten him, and pick up an early 2nd.

I'm fine with the pick as well. Mostly.
Click to expand...

DL isn't that guy... it's one of my complaints against him (I only have 2). For many drafts now selling picks and not buying when 1st round prospects or decent Euro picks are out there.

Only guy that went after that I think I really like is Kurucs, but can't claim to have had any opinion about him pre-draft.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Yeah but they could have realistically traded back, gotten him, and pick up an early 2nd.

I'm fine with the pick as well. Mostly.
Click to expand...
How do you know that exactly?

The rumor was a team really wanted him in the first round who picked after Utah.
 
And Kurucs seems like he would be the pick there if the Jazz could go back, but I thought dude was a total scrub pre-draft.
 
Are you available by private message beforehand to direct my postings???
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
How do you know that exactly?

The rumor was a team really wanted him in the first round who picked after Utah.
Click to expand...

That rumor came from DL doe... so I see a pattern.

DL - We had other teams that offered us good deals for Grayson... yada yada

DL - We traded up because SA was going to take Bradley cuz he such a hot commodity... yada yada.

It's the Danny Ainge "we made so many good offers on players and were so close to getting trades done" spin.

Note - This is all sarcasm
 
rare144 said:
Bleacher Report doesn't even have Grayson going in the 1st round in a redraft:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ie-class-where-would-luka-trae-ayton-go-today
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Lmao. BR, are you serious? You believe everything they think?
NUMBERICA said:
Yeah but they could have realistically traded back, gotten him, and pick up an early 2nd.

I'm fine with the pick as well. Mostly.
Click to expand...
DL obviously wanted him and he risked not getting him had he moved down.

NUMBERICA said:
"Him" = Okobo

There were a number of players in the 2nd I thought (and some I still think) are worth having a look at. KBD, for example.
Click to expand...

No room for Okobo on this team
 
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