The Jazz have many draft picks. I was curious what are the chances that they can reasonably expect to draft with them an additional All Star player to complement Lauri (or any other star obtained via trades). I used the data from 30 years of drafting from this article: it is not unique and I saw some other attempts at the analysis with very similar results. I chose this one because they did the statistical smoothing in giving you a curve and not the actual position-by-position data (which are affected too much by random variation given that the sample size is only 30). When adding probabilities up across several picks I used the binomial distributions (which gets hairy when you have to add up several unequal probabilities but I don't want to go into that too deep). Here are the results for the first-round picks.
The chances of drafting an All Star:
2024:
8th pick - 23%
29th pick-3%
2025 (projected on the current MN and CLE records):
20th pick - 7%
27th pick- 4%
Jazz own pick-?
If you combine 4 first-round picks in 2024-25, the Jazz have a 33% chance of drafting an All Star player with them, i.e. they will not be able to do so. Now, we can estimate the value of CLE-MN picks in general. We don't know where they end up but, given that both of those teams are currently successful and have a young core, it would be reasonable to expect them on average to be around 20 (the 23-24 Cavs record). Four of those picks give us a cumulative 25% chance of drafting an All Star, 6 picks - 35%. In short, most likely they will bring only the role players.
Now, what if the Jazz decide to tank for their life and end up with the bottom-four league record in both 2025 and 206 (that way no pick needs to be transferred to OKC by the way)? The most likely outcome of such tanking is having the chances of the 3rd pick (because you do have a good shot at the 1st pick and the 1st gives you a VERY high chance of getting an All Star). One 3d pick gives you a 39% chance of drafting an All Star, two - 63%, three - 77%. The real-life Jazz drafting history confirms that (setting aside the slight difference in the past darft odds, with three high draft picks the Jazz drafted Exum, Kanter and DWill .
The take-aways:
1. The draft stash acquired from trades will, most likely, bring the Jazz some solid players but not stars. Even if the Lakers pick ends up, say, the 8th (a very lucky scenario!), it would give only the 23% chance of doing so. Every other pick will matter very little on its own.
2. Other teams know about these probabilities and will value these picks accordingly in potential trades.
3. The only reasonable way for the Jazz to "guarantee" an All Star-level player via draft is the complete tank for 2 years... or, even better, for 3. The counterpoint: you can get three 3rd picks and still have a 23% chance of NOT drafting a single All Star with any of them (cue in Minnesota rapidly drafting Cory Brewer, Rubio, Flynn, Wesley Johnson and Derrick Williams).
4. The difference in half-assing the tank and going the full-tank is massive: the 8th and 9th picks combined give you a 39% chance of drafting an All Star, which equals to a single 3rd pick (a very likely outcome of the shameless tanking). Essentially, by doing a late-season tank for two years, the Jazz lost on a whole extra 3rd or 4th pick of opportunities to draft an All Star.
5. It is important to notice that low draft picks STILL usually give you valuable players on cost-control rookie contracts. They are bad for finding your stars but are very good for building around them.
The chances of drafting an All Star:
2024:
8th pick - 23%
29th pick-3%
2025 (projected on the current MN and CLE records):
20th pick - 7%
27th pick- 4%
Jazz own pick-?
If you combine 4 first-round picks in 2024-25, the Jazz have a 33% chance of drafting an All Star player with them, i.e. they will not be able to do so. Now, we can estimate the value of CLE-MN picks in general. We don't know where they end up but, given that both of those teams are currently successful and have a young core, it would be reasonable to expect them on average to be around 20 (the 23-24 Cavs record). Four of those picks give us a cumulative 25% chance of drafting an All Star, 6 picks - 35%. In short, most likely they will bring only the role players.
Now, what if the Jazz decide to tank for their life and end up with the bottom-four league record in both 2025 and 206 (that way no pick needs to be transferred to OKC by the way)? The most likely outcome of such tanking is having the chances of the 3rd pick (because you do have a good shot at the 1st pick and the 1st gives you a VERY high chance of getting an All Star). One 3d pick gives you a 39% chance of drafting an All Star, two - 63%, three - 77%. The real-life Jazz drafting history confirms that (setting aside the slight difference in the past darft odds, with three high draft picks the Jazz drafted Exum, Kanter and DWill .
The take-aways:
1. The draft stash acquired from trades will, most likely, bring the Jazz some solid players but not stars. Even if the Lakers pick ends up, say, the 8th (a very lucky scenario!), it would give only the 23% chance of doing so. Every other pick will matter very little on its own.
2. Other teams know about these probabilities and will value these picks accordingly in potential trades.
3. The only reasonable way for the Jazz to "guarantee" an All Star-level player via draft is the complete tank for 2 years... or, even better, for 3. The counterpoint: you can get three 3rd picks and still have a 23% chance of NOT drafting a single All Star with any of them (cue in Minnesota rapidly drafting Cory Brewer, Rubio, Flynn, Wesley Johnson and Derrick Williams).
4. The difference in half-assing the tank and going the full-tank is massive: the 8th and 9th picks combined give you a 39% chance of drafting an All Star, which equals to a single 3rd pick (a very likely outcome of the shameless tanking). Essentially, by doing a late-season tank for two years, the Jazz lost on a whole extra 3rd or 4th pick of opportunities to draft an All Star.
5. It is important to notice that low draft picks STILL usually give you valuable players on cost-control rookie contracts. They are bad for finding your stars but are very good for building around them.
