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Following potential 2015 draftees

Draftexpress has had a series examining the mental make-up of the guys who have beat the odds: Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Patrick Beverly. In the articles it makes a connection between some very important personality traits that allow them to overcome some odds.
 
Qman said:
Draftexpress has had a series examining the mental make-up of the guys who have beat the odds: Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Patrick Beverly. In the articles it makes a connection between some very important personality traits that allow them to overcome some odds.
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Do you have a link for that? I'm very interested in the conclusions they draw. As a long-time coach, I'm not sure that I buy the ability to accurately predict that stuff. It's just not very quantifiable, and extremely subjective. I can think of numerous factors that I would believe are more indicative of future success that someone else would discount completely.

If someone could adequately predict mental toughness, it would be interesting to see their methodology.
 
Ellis269 said:
Do you have a link for that? I'm very interested in the conclusions they draw. As a long-time coach, I'm not sure that I buy the ability to accurately predict that stuff. It's just not very quantifiable, and extremely subjective. I can think of numerous factors that I would believe are more indicative of future success that someone else would discount completely.

If someone could adequately predict mental toughness, it would be interesting to see their methodology.
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I would say you're probably better off just saying that scrappiness can be thought of as a vaguely positive attribute and not going much further. I think you're totally right in thinking it's probably BS to be able to be much more exact than that.
 
I would be alright with Kaminsky at #12, but as of right now he is my 12th preference & is only that high because of the presence of Favors & Gobert. He is about as close to a sure thing offensively as there is coming out of college & his offensive repertoire is exactly what our rotation of bigs is currently lacking. Offensively, he is a perfect fit with Favors & Gobert. Defensively, he is about as close to a sure thing as there is coming out of college to be below average (at best). Luckily, we have two defensive big men who would help cover him on that end of the court. He is also limited in comparison to other potential draftees as far as room for growth. So, what it comes down to with Kaminsky is: are you okay using a #12 pick on a limited defensive player who brings rare offensive qualities (for a big), who will likely contribute more than the typical draft prospect, but is unlikely to ever develop into more than a quality third big? Personally I would, due to the skill-sets of our other 2 bigs & our apparent readiness to compete (with the right additions), but only if (in no specific order) none of Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Hezonja, Winslow, Johnson, Porzingis, Turner, WCS, & Booker remain.
 
karl malone said:
I would be alright with Kaminsky at #12, but as of right now he is my 12th preference & is only that high because of the presence of Favors & Gobert. He is about as close to a sure thing offensively as there is coming out of college & his offensive repertoire is exactly what our rotation of bigs is currently lacking. Offensively, he is a perfect fit with Favors & Gobert. Defensively, he is about as close to a sure thing as there is coming out of college to be below average (at best). Luckily, we have two defensive big men who would help cover him on that end of the court. He is also limited in comparison to other potential draftees as far as room for growth. So, what it comes down to with Kaminsky is: are you okay using a #12 pick on a limited defensive player who brings rare offensive qualities (for a big), who will likely contribute more than the typical draft prospect, but is unlikely to ever develop into more than a quality third big? Personally I would, due to the skill-sets of our other 2 bigs & our apparent readiness to compete (with the right additions), but only if (in no specific order) none of Towns, Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Hezonja, Winslow, Johnson, Porzingis, Turner, WCS, & Booker remain.
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I'd add Oubre to that list, and possibly Looney, too.
 
Lists of front court seniors in the last 10 years in the major conferences:

ACC - notable bigs Tyler Hansbrough, Jared Dudley, Mike Scott, Mason Plumlee, Tyler Zeller, Trevor Booker

BIG 12 - notable bigs: Jeff Withey, Chris Copeland, Quincy Acy

Big East - notable bigs : Roy Hibbert, Luke Harangody, Ryan Gomes, Hakim Warrick, Jae Crowder, Steve Novak, Dante Cunningham

Big 10 - notable bigs : Jon Leuer, Adreian Payne, Draymond Green

Conf USA - notable bigs : Jason Maxiel

SEC - notable bigs - David Lee, Chuck Hayes

PAC12 - notable bigs: Channing Frye, Jeff Ayres, Dwight Powell, Aron Baynes

The record is not great for senior bigs coming into the league, but there are some exceptions.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Wesley Johnson is still a role player in the NBA... Ammo had a horrible knee injury that ended his career... Evan Turner is still a rotation player in the NBA, and Jimmer suxx.

Jimmy Butler didn't do much his freshman year and was okay his sophomore year and was drafted as a 21.5 year old. Demarre Carroll went to 4 years of school and wasn't great until his Senior year. Klay Thompson led the PAC 10 in scoring as a sophomore... he averaged 19.4 points per game shooting 15.6 shots per game and committing 3.5 TO... 40.7% shooting... they went 16-15 that year.

All I am saying is if your argument starts with "he played 4 years of college basketball and only dominated for 2 of them" and never addresses his skills at all then your argument is stupid. I can say you should never draft a freshman or sophomore in the top 10 because look how that turned out for Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters, Jonny Flynn, Michael Beasley, Greg Oden... If you hand pick the examples you use rather than looking at the entire sample you can make the data say whatever you want. There are a ton of examples of teams taking big swings on guys in the 9-14 range and them sucking badly.

I'd rather watch the guy and see what he does and think will what he does translate at the next level? I might also look at a few numbers and realize how dominant this guy was versus how dominant the other "busts" were and ask if he's different.
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Ooh ohh! I love this game! Well... if your argument is only that wesley johnson turned out then YOU'RE stupid!

Didnt Jimmy Butler go juco due to grades then Marquette and immediately blew up?
 
spycam1 said:
I'd add Oubre to that list, and possibly Looney, too.
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Those two & Portis (& possibly Dekker) are the only ones I'd consider drafting instead of him. Personally, as of right now, I'd go with Kaminsky, but fwiw I expect that he is lower than 12th on DL's board due to those defensive limitations. Frank is more of a shorter term pick, & due to how young our roster currently is, I expect DL to focus on the long-term. It's probably a year or two too early for him to make this type of "safe" pick. I just think it will be tough to find another big with that type of offensive repertoire, & if we're unable to move up for someone with a higher upside, I'd be okay with taking the sure thing as this team is fairly loaded with potential (not that you can have too much of that). Oubre has a very high ceiling, but I see him as a big risk, as I do Looney. As for Portis & Dekker, I like them both but don't view their skill-sets as rare as I do Kaminsky's. Although, if it'd be possible to still acquire one of them while also acquiring an additional 1st round pick, I would do that instead (so long as that pick has a decent chance of not being at the end of the 1st round).
 
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Carbon13 said:
Ooh ohh! I love this game! Well... if your argument is only that wesley johnson turned out then YOU'RE stupid!

Didnt Jimmy Butler go juco due to grades then Marquette and immediately blew up?
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He wasn't good his first year at Marquette and really never " blew up" per se. The argument is that those older players are still contributors even when they don't "blow up". Wes wasn't good for where he was drafted but we also aren't drafting fifth. What exactly are people expecting with the 12th pick? I'd like to do better than a Wes Johnson level player, but if that's the bust for an older player it's better than the upside guy who is out of the league in a few years.
 
****ty Smurf is so weak. Runs to negs when he gets placed. Love that I can get into you Freakazoid. Good vibes coming back to you, you miserable wretch.
 
Qman said:
Draftexpress has had a series examining the mental make-up of the guys who have beat the odds: Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Patrick Beverly. In the articles it makes a connection between some very important personality traits that allow them to overcome some odds.
Click to expand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIQ6OLQrxdE
 
I think Handlotgen's really killing it on why Locke's take (thus far) on Kaminsky is short-sighted.

But Locke nevertheless does make the point that DL has done well with long-toolsy types such as Leonard and Gobert that need skill development. I think Locke adds that these guys have had the drive to work and be great. Is anybody out there like that? I'm guessing that Looney may be the closest. Not sure I'm sold on Oubre's drive (though to be honest, don't know enough about Looney's drive one way or the other, but I think his in-game motor is generally better).

I think Locke errs when he said that Leonard and Gobert are also great athletes. They're certainly very good, but it's not the vertical leaps that are most impressive; lateral ability, body control, etc. is as much or more of a factor. Again, here, I think Looney should at least be explored, but no idea if he measures up.
 
Don't know if anybody's made a Kelly Oubre/Wesley Johnson comparison yet. Maybe there's something to it. Seemed to have been regarded as similarly tooled players. Very similar size (including reach -- Oubre a bit better in wingspan, Johnson in standing reach).

Despite the general narrative, Johnson was pretty good as a freshman -- not quite as good as Oubre, but probably not as far behind as many imagine. Both had questions coming out about their motor/toughness.

Actually if Johnson had been drafted #12, we'd probably think there's nothing particularly wrong with the way his career has played out.
 
The word upside is stupid. When 3/5 of the All NBA 1st team have "limited upside" on their draft scouting profiles, you gotta wonder if the word has any meaning at all.

That's as up as it gets.
 
ThaPhunkPhenomenon said:
When is the last time a Trex turned out ok? Kevin Willis?
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Frank's not a T-rex. Doesn't have a great wingspan, but standing reach matters too, esp. for bigs. Frank's standing reach is equal to (among others):
Andre Drummond
Steven Adams
Tiago Splitter

Is 1/2" below Derrick Favors and LaMarcus Aldridge

And is higher than:
Taj Gibson
Greg Monroe
Tristan Thompson
Myers Leonard
Festus Ezeli
Anthony Davis
Mason Plumlee
Noah Vonleh
Greg Monroe
Nene
Chris Bosh
Amare Stoudemire
Kwame Brown
Al Horford
Joachim Noah
 
idiot said:
Don't know if anybody's made a Kelly Oubre/Wesley Johnson comparison yet. Maybe there's something to it. Seemed to have been regarded as similarly tooled players. Very similar size (including reach -- Oubre a bit better in wingspan, Johnson in standing reach).

Despite the general narrative, Johnson was pretty good as a freshman -- not quite as good as Oubre, but probably not as far behind as many imagine. Both had questions coming out about their motor/toughness.

Actually if Johnson had been drafted #12, we'd probably think there's nothing particularly wrong with the way his career has played out.
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Wesley was more explosive, a very quick jumper, and the much higher standing reach helped him finish dunks and lobs.
But I remember there was lots of interest in Johnson, this board was on its first iteration, plenty of people here wanted to move up for him.
Did KOC want to? Maybe. We had no assets at the time so that may have been a blessing in disguise.
 
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