FiveThirtyEight blog -- Utah Jazz *Carmelo player projections
- Thread starter franklin
- Start date
zyzz
Well-Known Member
Joe Ingles is a "scrub" on the projections lolol. Guess it makes sense since he didn't start shooting until the last 20 games or so.
Here's a link to the thing
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/
Here's a link to the thing
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/
Wow! Look how good Trey Burke's usage rate is! Wow, if there's one thing I'd call his usage rate, it's definitely extremely very good.
...
Usage rate being "good" or "bad" is 100% contingent on how a player uses their possessions. The rest is really cool, but that's really dumb.
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Usage rate being "good" or "bad" is 100% contingent on how a player uses their possessions. The rest is really cool, but that's really dumb.
Nah, this **** sucks, I'm sorry.
Do they really project Gobert to have peaked last year? What? According to these projections our "Big 3" all peaked last year and will never be as good, or do I understand "wins above replacement" wrong?
Do they really project Gobert to have peaked last year? What? According to these projections our "Big 3" all peaked last year and will never be as good, or do I understand "wins above replacement" wrong?
Actually, yeah, that too. Is "'15" last season and "'16" this season?
I just dont like 538. I like stats, but they are too much for me.
I get that, most thing use the year the season ends.
Sports games are always called by the end year. Like this year "NBA 2k16" came out.
Right... the graphs just really don't make any sense considering that, though.
And why is Hood considered a rotation player when Burks is an average starter when the WARP is higher for Hood?
Right. It's the first sign that Nate Silver is infallible.
It's still off season and it's till Nate Silver. That said, the rest of the projections should be worthy of consideration, early peaks on all players considered (not just Gobert as you pointed out).
It seems like they are saying all our players basically played to the peak of their confidence intervals this past year and that probably won't happen again.
Not really, most of the confidence intervals (90/10 CIs) in later years go higher than where they were last year, which means there is a good chance they will have a few years in the future better than last year. It's just that the projection system expects some regression to the mean when you make a big jump in one year, and it does so because that's what best matches what other players have done in similar situations. One player might break out (although Gobert most likely), one player might regress, and that possibility is contained in the CIs. You also have to take into account how much age matters. 27 being the peak for players is a big deal, which is why you see Gordon and Favors' projections linearly drop off after they turn 27.
Almost every player in the NBA, they have getting worse. Notice that there's a range and the dot is in the middle of the range - so that assumes they COULD get better, they COULD get worse, and this just shows the middle of the road for that player. Since this is the first year, there's no way yet to see how accurate they are.
<EDIT> What cjs said.
<EDIT> What cjs said.