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The Jazz have the 5th best point differential in the west

Cunning Linguist said:
Some good points here.

Can anyone provide Burke's and Neto's on court/off court stats as well as defensive metrics. That is, I recall last season someone posting a stat that said Exum was the 4th best pg in the league at staying in front of his man or something. That stat and other individual defensive ones.

Anyone?
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I only have their raw on courts from NBA.com. Burke + 0.3 Neto +0.1
Advanced stats like defensive RPM paint a different picture. -3.96 for Burke (3rd worst defensive PG). -0.32 for Neto (pretty respectable)
 
KD's Framily said:
Your hypotheses don't line up with reality. This isn't even subjective. Our offensive efficiency is currently 9th in the NBA. Defensive efficiency is below league average.

https://www.nbastuffer.com/2015-2016_NBA_Regular_Season_Advanced_Stats.html

You can point out whatever flaws in the offense you want, and they do exist, but our offense, on a per-possession basis, is top 10 in the NBA. It's been even better in clutch situations. It's not the reason we're losing games.
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You can't cutely separate the offense from the defense, then quote a stat, and then expect my eyes to all boggly. The offensive and defensive sides of the game are knit together.

Stockton used to talk about how, when his teams got down by 18 or 20 points early in the game, he looked forward to exploiting the fatigue that would settle upon his opponents, due to their having spent their energetic loads too early. In other words, a large deficit became the sign he needed for how to pull out a game down the stretch, for how and when to attack. Close games are won in the waning moments of physical limits, and its right then that it's important to push your opponent over the edge.

The jazz's offense down the stretch of close games allows PLENTY of ball watching by the off-ball defenders, who are able to catch a breath and put more nuts out there when they need buckets. Your (nvm Locke's) stats don't disprove this hypothesis (or any that resemble it), but it's cute that you think they automatically do.
 
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The Jazz defensive rating in the 1st quarter ranks 16th in the NBA, and in the 4th quarter, it's 18th in the NBA. Whatever extra disadvantage the Jazz defense gets at the end of games by not tiring out opponents on the other end is marginal at best.
 
KD's Framily said:
The Jazz defensive rating in the 1st quarter ranks 16th in the NBA, and in the 4th quarter, it's 18th in the NBA. Whatever extra disadvantage the Jazz defense gets at the end of games by not tiring out opponents on the other end is marginal at best.
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I'd prepared myself not to reply to whatever lamely large statistical generalization you would come back with, but I though I'd chime in to say that I've noted how you've acknowledged that the jazz are at least a "marginal" disadvantage due to the offense. "Marginal" might be enough; we're talking about just a couple of buckets deciding these games.

Here's a bit more, though:

None of your stats address the predictability of the offense in these late-close-game moments, and the high degree of difficulty of most buckets. I claim that our "success" has been fools' gold -- a second point I'll continue to make in the face of any of those general statistics.

I'm not saying I can't be convinced otherwise. But you're not close.
 
All the qualifying of statistics drives me crazy these days. The offensive issues we have can in part be solved when favs comes back. The general issue (and not just crunch time) is that we have too many complete no threats in the rotation. Neto can't create enough off the dribble to handle as much as he does. His sit is okay. CJ has turned into millsap and turns down open threes to drive no where. Booker is a complete nonthreat in the PnR and teams are daring him to shoot the jumper. Withey can hit the 15 footer and roll off the pick well, but can't create anything.

Bottom line... We need one more wing creator and one more big who is a threat. Wing creator could be a pg or a wing but I just think when you are starting Rudy who is not great offensively that it is tough to roll Neto out who can't do much either and it completely jams up the offense unless we are killing the three. Then in some units you add Booker, Rudy, Neto, with other guys and I have no idea how we ever score.
 
NAOS said:
I'd prepared myself not to reply to whatever lamely large statistical generalization you would come back with, but I though I'd chime in to say that I've noted how you've acknowledged that the jazz are at least a "marginal" disadvantage due to the offense. "Marginal" might be enough; we're talking about just a couple of buckets deciding these games.
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You're changing the argument. My entire point is that defense is a bigger problem than offense. Not being able to wear the opposing team down over the course of the game, at best, brings their defense from 16th to 18th. It's below-average regardless. You might be right that not being able to wear the opposing offense down hurts our defense a bit. But as you can see, from the beginning of the game to the end, it's not enough to say that our offense is a bigger problem than the defense.

NAOS said:
Here's a bit more, though:

None of your stats address the predictability of the offense in these late-close-game moments, and the high degree of difficulty of most buckets. I claim that our "success" has been fools' gold -- a second point I'll continue to make in the face of any of those general statistics.
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To your credit, it probably is a bit of fool's gold. But even so, a few lucky shots rimming out wouldn't be enough to drop our offensive efficiency from 5th to below league average. They represent an extremely low percentage of the shots that make up this stat. And predictability isn't necessarily a bad thing - the Stockton/Malone offense was extremely predictable. It still couldn't be stopped.

NAOS said:
I'm not saying I can't be convinced otherwise. But you're not close.
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I don't really care about convincing you, to be honest. "I disagree with the stats" isn't a refute, it's just another way of saying "I'm wrong but don't want to admit it".
 
NAOS said:
I'd prepared myself not to reply to whatever lamely large statistical generalization you would come back with, but I though I'd chime in to say that I've noted how you've acknowledged that the jazz are at least a "marginal" disadvantage due to the offense. "Marginal" might be enough; we're talking about just a couple of buckets deciding these games.

Here's a bit more, though:

None of your stats address the predictability of the offense in these late-close-game moments, and the high degree of difficulty of most buckets. I claim that our "success" has been fools' gold -- a second point I'll continue to make in the face of any of those general statistics.

I'm not saying I can't be convinced otherwise. But you're not close.
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Completely agree with you. I actually give our players a lot of credit for scoring as well as they have with what our offense creates for them.
 
It is so bizarre to me that, given the injuries we've had and the amount of minutes we're giving to rookies and D-league players, people are ripping Quin's system for producing only the 9th best offensive rating in the NBA. I can't even fathom how you could expect better.
 
KD's Framily said:
You're changing the argument. My entire point is that defense is a bigger problem than offense. Not being able to wear the opposing team down over the course of the game, at best, brings their defense from 16th to 18th. It's below-average regardless. You might be right that not being able to wear the opposing offense down hurts our defense a bit. But as you can see, from the beginning of the game to the end, it's not enough to say that our offense is a bigger problem than the defense.



To your credit, it probably is a bit of fool's gold. But even so, a few lucky shots rimming out wouldn't be enough to drop our offensive efficiency from 5th to below league average. They represent an extremely low percentage of the shots that make up this stat. And predictability isn't necessarily a bad thing - the Stockton/Malone offense was extremely predictable. It still couldn't be stopped.



I don't really care about convincing you, to be honest. "I disagree with the stats" isn't a refute, it's just another way of saying "I'm wrong but don't want to admit it".
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I've never changed my argument in this thread.

Stockton and Malone had a counter to everything. There wasn't anything predictable about the WAY they executed the PnR. They'd predictably run it unpredictably.

So stats represent Truths, free of necessary context, and futile to refute? Emmmmk.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
All the qualifying of statistics drives me crazy these days.
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Hmmm.. ok. In my experience, most of what we're exposed to is praise for statistics.

Handlogten's Heros said:
The offensive issues we have can in part be solved when favs comes back. The general issue (and not just crunch time) is that we have too many complete no threats in the rotation. Neto can't create enough off the dribble to handle as much as he does. His sit is okay. CJ has turned into millsap and turns down open threes to drive no where. Booker is a complete nonthreat in the PnR and teams are daring him to shoot the jumper. Withey can hit the 15 footer and roll off the pick well, but can't create anything.

Bottom line... We need one more wing creator and one more big who is a threat. Wing creator could be a pg or a wing but I just think when you are starting Rudy who is not great offensively that it is tough to roll Neto out who can't do much either and it completely jams up the offense unless we are killing the three. Then in some units you add Booker, Rudy, Neto, with other guys and I have no idea how we ever score.
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Mostly agree. But we're not even using our best offensive options right now (with Favs out). Synder has JUST started using Lyles instead of Booker in some of these late-close-game dynamics. Lyles is at least a threat. Hell, even get Ingles in there (and then out on any defensive subs) for more possessions. Booker has been a joke on offense, and his defense is far from awesome.
 
NAOS said:
I've never changed my argument in this thread.

Stockton and Malone had a counter to everything. There wasn't anything predictable about the WAY they executed the PnR. They'd predictably run it unpredictably.

So stats represent Truths, free of necessary context, and futile to refute? Emmmmk.
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Well, your arguments so far have been that Utah's offensive rating of 9th is misleading because their offense doesn't wear the other team out. But our defensive rating, relative to the rest of the league, only drops 2 spots when comparing the 1st quarter to the 4th quarter, suggesting that the defense is bad primarily because it is bad, and not because the offense can't wear the other team out.

You also touched on the predictability of the offense, but the offense is still top 9, so I don't really see any evidence suggesting that the predictability of the offense is hurting it. Unless you think the Jazz offensive rating should be top 5 or something. Which, quite frankly, is unreasonable.
 
KD's Framily said:
Well, your arguments so far have been that Utah's offensive rating of 9th is misleading because their offense doesn't wear the other team out. But our defensive rating, relative to the rest of the league, only drops 2 spots when comparing the 1st quarter to the 4th quarter, suggesting that the defense is bad primarily because it is bad, and not because the offense can't wear the other team out.

You also touched on the predictability of the offense, but the offense is still top 9, so I don't really see any evidence suggesting that the predictability of the offense is hurting it. Unless you think the Jazz offensive rating should be top 5 or something. Which, quite frankly, is unreasonable.
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my argument is that the jazz aren't playing a winning style of basketball. (I've also had to make many arguments about how your stats are missing the point). I'll call it quits here, though.
 
NAOS said:
stats are Truth
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Offensive predictability is not always tethered to offensive inefficiency. Seems like you're letting this cloud the reality of a decent 4th quarter offense by a depleted Jazz team.
 
So I heard once that being elite is related to your ability to do something at a high level for an extended period (much longer than normal people). Maybe you could call it consistency, though I think that doesn't begin to describe the aggressive nature of individuals (or teams) that can do it.

This season, the Jazz have only been able to put together 2 wins in a row. On the flip side they don't have huge losing streaks either. Perhaps they can learn to avoid getting comfortable and that will begin to make a difference.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Bottom line... We need one more wing creator and one more big who is a threat.
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Burks and favors.

I think the cake would be rather tasty if all the ingredients were still in it.
 
KD's Framily said:
It is so bizarre to me that, given the injuries we've had and the amount of minutes we're giving to rookies and D-league players, people are ripping Quin's system for producing only the 9th best offensive rating in the NBA. I can't even fathom how you could expect better.
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Agreed.

you are killing it in this thread btw. Thanks for all of the info you researched
 
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