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If Jazz went 19-10 w/Dante starting and held opponents to 89ppg,why the doubt in Exum

Dante was a rookie. If he is not exponentially better next season, I will start to get worried. He is a smart kid, and certainly has the physical tools.
 
If Jazz went 19-10 w/Dante starting and held opponents to 89ppg,why the doubt...

Doubt probably stems from fact he shot like 34% for the year and never ever ever went to the line and never ever ever drove into the lane.


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Doubt probably stems from fact he shot like 34% on 2 point shots
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Since he doesn't turn 21 til July .....and he 's gotten stronger and taller ,do you think he can shoot better than 34% next year
 
Batman said:
Doubt probably stems from fact he shot like 34% for the year and never ever ever went to the line and never ever ever drove into the lane.


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and yet went to the line how many times in one SL game and scored super efficiently. Be interesting to see who he is this year. I think once he gains game shape by midway thru the season he will surprise a lot of ppl
 
GVC said:
Don't think that stat exists -- even if it did, it wouldn't be particularly meaningful over a 30 game sample. His other stats didn't improve as the season progressed. It's entirely possible the Jazz played better in spite of Exum, not because of him. While he may have been an upgrade over Trey, last season's performance is not a good reason to expect Dante to be a passable starting PG. He wasn't good.
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I'm sure the stat exists, not sure if it is published anywhere. If you compare Dante's BPM for first ~50 games to his last ~30 games, this would be insightful into his progress over the year, in my opinion.
 
silesian said:
If you compare Dante's BPM for first ~50 games to his last ~30 games, this would be insightful into his progress over the year, in my opinion.
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The accuracy of the measure increases considerably with the larger sample size though, so that's not a terribly good way to compare the two periods of time.
 
DownUnder said:
and yet went to the line how many times in one SL game and scored super efficiently. Be interesting to see who he is this year. I think once he gains game shape by midway thru the season he will surprise a lot of ppl
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Hope you are right.

He did not shoot super efficiently by the way. Shot 5-10. But I guess if you are saying he scored 20 points on 10 shots, I'll accept that.


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Batman said:
Hope you are right.

He did not shoot super efficiently by the way. Shot 5-10. But I guess if you are saying he scored 20 points on 10 shots, I'll accept that.


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that's why i wrote SCORED super efficiently. Would have been 22 pts if he'd taken his free throws
 
Agreed. But let's say that one wants to test the hypothesis that Exum made a huge increase, and the BPM shows a decline. Would suggest that the hypothesis is weak.
 
I don't want to doubt Exum...I want to believe that he will be that elite player that we need to make us legit contenders. But I doubt it because on offense he was basically invisible his rookie season. He is incredibly fast, but didnt seem to use it like we have with other point guards. He never attacked the basket really.

Add to that, that as ACL injury is no joke. ACL injuries can rob athletes of their speed. But I am more worried about his mentality. He has had a long time to think about the few times he has attacked the basket and gotten knocked down/hurt from it.

He is elite on defense, and is a high basketball player. So I do have hope for him. I really do think he can turn into an All star calibur player on both sides of the ball.

But coming back from an ACL tear isn't easy. Takes some athletes a full season of playing to regain everything. So I think a lot of people are worried about the speed of his development.
 
silesian said:
Agreed. But let's say that one wants to test the hypothesis that Exum made a huge increase, and the BPM shows a decline. Would suggest that the hypothesis is weak.
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Given the large standard error (granted, a presumption), I'd guess even with a fairly large difference between the two periods, you couldn't reject the null -- that the two are the same -- with much confidence at all (note: RPM might be estimated using Bayesian techniques, which I'm not terribly familiar with...I'm just a dumb frequentist...I actually have a tutorial on estimating regularized adjusted plus-minus with python that I'll likely use once I finish cleaning up my 1996-current play-by-play data).

One additional note:
I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that it takes over a season for adjusted plus-minus to settle down. This is one of the reasons -- the other being the out-of-sample/lineup complementarity problem -- priors are used in regularized/real plus-minus (IIRC). Based on the description ESPN gives of real plus-minus, I'd guess they use some combination of box score stats to construct their priors. That could definitely hurt Dante's RPM. I've seen other regularized plus-minus stats that use prior seasons' RPM as a prior. This seems a better method to me, but it requires using arbitrary priors for rookies -- pretty sure I've read that rookies are generally given very poor scores as priors.
 
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