Colton's plan for the offseason, including how I convince Hayward to stay

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

With no evidence whatsoever, I'll speculate that the Spurs would be willing send Aldridge to the Jazz for Favors and Diaw's deal (and whatever small filler might be needed). The Spurs would ask for Exum (whom they really like) and also inquire about Hood for Danny Green, but the Jazz probably wouldn't agree on that just yet.

I think the Spurs want out of LMA's deal and want more cap flexibility, though they've already lost out on Chris Paul. I'm not sure how much the Spurs really like Pau Gasol either, tbh. Favors would give the Spurs a real pick-and-roll target and better defense and rebounding than they got out of either LMA or Gasol in the playoffs.

The Jazz wouldn't pull the trigger on a deal like this without knowing that Hayward is on board and before they know what they're doing at point guard. The deal would also push the Jazz into the LT for sure, since LMA is at $20M/year.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yb5fh8at

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Why not? He is coming off a playoff series where he absolutely dominated JJ Redick, a guy who is rumored to be getting in the 15-20 million dollar range of contract offers. Ingles proved himself as an above average defender (who can guard 1-4) and a top 5 spot-up 3pt shooter who can also playmake off the dribble.

15 million is average starter money and Joe Ingles is a starer at the most coveted NBA position (SF). I think 45/3 is nearly a guarantee for him.

He also kept Klay Thompson in check, which is even more impressive, imo.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

He also kept Klay Thompson in check, which is even more impressive, imo.

He also guarded Chris Paul and was effective for stretches on him.

How in the hell does someone not offer him 15 million? He'd be a perfect fit on every NBA team.

 

[Stoked]

Luc Mbah a Moute just opted out. Can the Jazz shed salary (Diaw and Burks) and sign him along with ingles, Hill and Hayward?

Jazz save 18,345.506 by moving Burks and not bringing Diaw back..

You do this by signing Hayward and Mbah A Moute. Then you re-sign Hill and Ingles. Since Ingles is a RFA and Jazz own Hill's bird rights they can go over the cap to sign them correct?

Question I have is this: Is Mbah A Moute worth Diaw and Burks (and what it costs to move him)?

 

[♪alt13]

Luc Mbah a Moute just opted out. Can the Jazz shed salary (Diaw and Burks) and sign him along with ingles, Hill and Hayward?

Jazz save 18,345.506 by moving Burks and not bringing Diaw back..

You do this by signing Hayward and Mbah A Moute. Then you re-sign Hill and Ingles. Since Ingles is a RFA and Jazz own Hill's bird rights they can go over the cap to sign them correct?

Question I have is this: Is Mbah A Moute worth Diaw and Burks (and what it costs to move him)?

Pretty sure that we won't have cap room on the 6th even if we dump Diaw and Burks. Ingles, Hill, and ,Hayward all have cap holds.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

FWIW, I would rather sign a guard in free agency and use trade chips to acquire a forward who can score. The market has plenty of point guards--e.g., Hill, Teague, Teodosic, etc. Plus, Exum might actually pan out if other players share the ball-handling duties (see Shaun Livingston in Golden State).

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

He also guarded Chris Paul and was effective for stretches on him.

How in the hell does someone not offer him 15 million? He'd be a perfect fit on every NBA team.

Yeah -- 6'8" with good defense, passing and 40% 3-pt shooting, plus a really good attitude. Pretty well suited to the modern game.

 

[Miggs]

Two days? Doesn't FA start 7/6 this year?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Miami could also make an offer to Ingles just to **** with the Jazz while they're trying to win over Hayward.

 

[Stoked]

Two days? Doesn't FA start 7/6 this year?

[MENTION=3213]Wes Mantooth[/MENTION]

It starts on 07/01 but there is a moratorium until 7/06.

SO basically teams, players and agents can start talking on 07/01 at 12:01 am. And they can come to terms and verbal agreements. But no one can sign and make it official until 07/06.

This is why the Clips were basically able to hold De'Andre Jordan hostage last year after his verbal agreement to the Mavs. He verbally agreed but couldn't sign. Clips got in his ear and physically kept the Mavs at bay until he signed and it was official.

 

[Miggs]

[MENTION=3213]Wes Mantooth[/MENTION]

It starts on 07/01 but there is a moratorium until 7/06.

SO basically teams, players and agents can start talking on 07/01 at 12:01 am. And they can come to terms and verbal agreements. But no one can sign and make it official until 07/06.

This is why the Clips were basically able to hold De'Andre Jordan hostage last year after his verbal agreement to the Mavs. He verbally agreed but couldn't sign. Clips got in his ear and physically kept the Mavs at bay until he signed and it was official.

Yeah, just saw that.

I hope Gobert, Quin and Co. go over to his house much like Doc and Co. did with Jordan and convince him to stay.

 

[cowhide]

I think people are sleeping on someone offering Ingles 15 million a year. He might take a discount to stay on Utah, but not that much.

15 million a year for a guy who averaged 7 pts a game. If that happens then there is no hope in keep players on your team. I love what Ingles does but he is worth the mid-level exemption. I don't think Hill is going to get $18 million from any one else especially after the injuries issues.

 

[infection]

Why not? He is coming off a playoff series where he absolutely dominated JJ Redick, a guy who is rumored to be getting in the 15-20 million dollar range of contract offers. Ingles proved himself as an above average defender (who can guard 1-4) and a top 5 spot-up 3pt shooter who can also playmake off the dribble.

15 million is average starter money and Joe Ingles is a starer at the most coveted NBA position (SF). I think 45/3 is nearly a guarantee for him.

He also guarded Chris Paul and was effective for stretches on him.

How in the hell does someone not offer him 15 million? He'd be a perfect fit on every NBA team.

If every starter got $15M and assuming that nobody else in that starting lineup made more than that, then that's more than 75% of any team's cap space. Last year's contracts were inflated due to a few variables. The door is going to swing back over the next three years (simply my opinion) where people will then be underpaid (relative to where the cap numbers settle). The crunch this year (again only in my estimation -- not based on anything hard) is that the low and moderate level guys will get squeezed relative to last year (i.e. no more Mosgovs, Delavadovas or Noahs). Ingles played great D and shot well but I really doubt anyone's looking at him to offer $15M. For the teams that actually have that cap space, it seems like there are more people available to pay $15M to than there are teams able to do so (I'd have to actually look, though), but I don't see Ingles as one of them when there are many other 'bigger fish,' so to speak.

 

[Boris]

I see nothing of Westbrook in these plans this is plane stupid! CP3 left Butler left Westbrook is leaving Griffin is leaving. JazzMUST be in the sweepstakes destination city for one of these two.

 

[Shocker00]

Notes:

They would have to sign Teo before they can re-sign Hayward, Hill, and Ingles.

You're right at the borderline of 10m over on luxury tax. If under 10m the Jazz would pay 1.75 for every dollar over which is an Extra 17.5 in lottery tax. If the Jazz go over 10M it would be 2.50 for every dollar over which would be 25m in Luxury tax.

If they trade before July 1st under your plan they need to give up more salary than they receive or they will pay a lot higher Luxury tax.

Jazz currently can't sign any free agents for more than 10m without giving up bird rights on one of their own free agents. Which means they would lose one of them no matter what.

I'm not sure Teo is worth 8m this year, giving your actually paying an additional 12M in Luxury tax. He would actually cost the Jazz 20m for this year.

Do you really think this moves the needle? In my opinion after Minnesota adds a nice PG to their roster in free agency this team is the 4th or 5th best team in the west.

GSW
HOU
SAS
MINN
UTA

Will the Jazz be willing to pay that much Luxury tax? I also doubt you can get Ingles under 11m a yr.

 

[colton]

Notes:

They would have to sign Teo before they can re-sign Hayward, Hill, and Ingles.

True, in the scenario I laid out. But if he'll sign for exactly the MLE I think it wouldn't matter as long as the Jazz aren't over the luxury tax with their salary holds.

You're right at the borderline of 10m over on luxury tax. If under 10m the Jazz would pay 1.75 for every dollar over which is an Extra 17.5 in lottery tax.

Oops, I had forgot the tax was that aggressive--I was thinking it was just 1.00 for every dollar. Might have to adjust the "quality PF/C" player's salary down a bit in my plan, since while I think the Jazz might be willing to pay about 10 mill in luxury tax I doubt they would pay 17.5 mill this year.

If the Jazz go over 10M it would be 2.50 for every dollar over which would be 25m in Luxury tax.

Yeah, they are definitely not going there.

If they trade before July 1st under your plan they need to give up more salary than they receive or they will pay a lot higher Luxury tax.

I'm not following. Why is that?

Do you really think this moves the needle?

Yes.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If every starter got $15M and assuming that nobody else in that starting lineup made more than that, then that's more than 75% of any team's cap space. Last year's contracts were inflated due to a few variables. The door is going to swing back over the next three years (simply my opinion) where people will then be underpaid (relative to where the cap numbers settle). The crunch this year (again only in my estimation -- not based on anything hard) is that the low and moderate level guys will get squeezed relative to last year (i.e. no more Mosgovs, Delavadovas or Noahs). Ingles played great D and shot well but I really doubt anyone's looking at him to offer $15M. For the teams that actually have that cap space, it seems like there are more people available to pay $15M to than there are teams able to do so (I'd have to actually look, though), but I don't see Ingles as one of them when there are many other 'bigger fish,' so to speak.

tl/dr, someone is going to offer Ingles 45/3, I guarantee it.

 

[NAOS]

He also guarded Chris Paul and was effective for stretches on him.

How in the hell does someone not offer him 15 million? He'd be a perfect fit on every NBA team.

One thing is for sure: the estimate of 8.5 is stupid-low. Like, way stupid.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If every starter got $15M and assuming that nobody else in that starting lineup made more than that, then that's more than 75% of any team's cap space. Last year's contracts were inflated due to a few variables. The door is going to swing back over the next three years (simply my opinion) where people will then be underpaid (relative to where the cap numbers settle). The crunch this year (again only in my estimation -- not based on anything hard) is that the low and moderate level guys will get squeezed relative to last year (i.e. no more Mosgovs, Delavadovas or Noahs). Ingles played great D and shot well but I really doubt anyone's looking at him to offer $15M. For the teams that actually have that cap space, it seems like there are more people available to pay $15M to than there are teams able to do so (I'd have to actually look, though), but I don't see Ingles as one of them when there are many other 'bigger fish,' so to speak.

What kind of mental gymnastics do you have to do to convince yourself a top 5 spot-up shooter, who is 6'8 with long arms, can defend multiple positions, and has PG skills doesnt get a 15 million a year offer?

Plus there are only what, 3 good available SF's this year? Hayward, Igoudala, and Gallinari? Ingles is the 4th.

 

[colton]

tl/dr, someone is going to offer Ingles 45/3, I guarantee it.

And I guarantee that he doesn't get that large of an offer.

edit: I'd offer to do an "avatar bet" except I've got one pending (whether Hayward will stay or go), and I can't do another one until that is resolved (and only then, if I win).