Well that was a disappointment. I was expecting some sort of case to be made.
The Case for Letting Exum Walk
- Thread starter homeytennis
- Start date
Wow there is a whole league of players that can guard Harden better than anyone has in the NBA so far?!!!
Also I have posted these but ill post them again so people can see. Exum put up great numbers this year and showed he is a good player. Im not sure why people are downplaying what he did. I guess maybe if you are just looking at his box score numbers they were not that great but they were still solid. I know you are infatuated with D-league players but... they suck.
These stats are from NBA.com and are of qualified players only for the regular season
Exum lead our team in Assists per 100 possessions(with less TOVs than Rubio).
Exum was our 2nd leading scorer per 100 possessions just behind Mitchell.
Exum had our highest offensive rating of 109.3
Exum had the 4th highest defensive rating of 98.9 just behind Gobert who was 97.7
Exum had our highest net rating of 10.4
Exum had our 2nd highest Ast/TO rating just behind Ingles
Exum played at the fatest pace of anyone on our team
Exum had our 3rd highest player impact rating on the team just behind Gobert and Favors
Exum had our highest points per possession in pick and roll situations as the ball handler at 0.91 just ahead of Mitchell at 0.81
Exum had our best FG% and EFG% as the pick and roll ball handler
Exum turned the ball over the 3rd least as the ball handler in pick and rolls ahead of Rubio but behind Burks and Mitchell
Exum was in the 80th percentile as the ball handler in pick and rolls in the NBA ahead of anyone on the Jazz by 30%
Exum had the second highest points per possession in isolation plays just behind Rubio
Exum had the best FG% and EFG% in isolation plays for the Jazz at 50%
Exum had the best FG% on the Jazz on Drives
Exum had the 2nd highest Ast % on drives behind Ingles
Exum had the lowest TOV% on drives on the Jazz
Exum had the best DFG% on the team just ahead of Favors and Gobert
Exum had our fastest Average speed while on the court especially on offense
RandyForRubio
Well-Known Member
I know Dante has some stuff he struggled with last year, but he didn’t play that bad.
He definitely needs to improve his 3-pt shot, but his per/36 numbers were good. Not my favorite stat, but it’s not meaningless either.
17.5/4/6.6 per/36 which is easily the best he’s ever done. So we are seeing improvement.
If he can cut down the turnovers (dumb mistakes, ball ha fling skills), improve his 3-pt shot, and cut down on the fouls, he’s gonna be really good. Easily worth $10/yr.
He definitely needs to improve his 3-pt shot, but his per/36 numbers were good. Not my favorite stat, but it’s not meaningless either.
17.5/4/6.6 per/36 which is easily the best he’s ever done. So we are seeing improvement.
If he can cut down the turnovers (dumb mistakes, ball ha fling skills), improve his 3-pt shot, and cut down on the fouls, he’s gonna be really good. Easily worth $10/yr.
Boom, bitches!
And all this coming off a lengthy injury. He could still meet his pre-draft hype.
Exum just needs to get decent at making open 3s and he is good to go.
Quin's Murderface
Well-Known Member
This string of facts should be required reading before posting a stupid Exum hot take post.
David Stern
Well-Known Member
I think you don't give him the Qualifying Offer and try to sign him for something like 4/32. You don't want him signing the QO and tying up cap space next offseason.
TheStormofWar
Well-Known Member
The sample set is so limited that these are somewhat misleading. Dude played 14 games this year, versus 77 for Ricky, 82 for Joe, and 41 for Neto, and 79 for DM. You think these are good, look at Mitrou-Long's numbers.
He is .1 ast per 100 ahead of Ricky. Big whoop. He is .3 TOV behind Rubio in TOV per 100. Again, big whoop. He is about 2 points ahead of Ricky per 100 poss. Again, big whoop. But he is, in no way at this point in time, better than Ricky at anything.
Look, I love X. If the Jazz want to sink cash into him, fine. But do not portray him as this magnificent player who is a steal when he played exactly 235 minutes in the regular season. He is a great defender with offensive potential, but he sucks shooting, does turn the ball over, and has a long injury history. If the Jazz sign him, they are signing for potential and not production. Defense is one thing, but we have a team full of them that can hit a jumpshot. Ugh.
Quin's Murderface
Well-Known Member
A lot of the things people rip on him for (the TO's for example) are kind of laughable when you consider this .3 TOV difference to Rubio (just as an example). He gets ripped on or called a bust for things that aren't accurate. That's the whole point of those numbers. He was very good to end the year, and he is way younger and obviosuly has much more room to develop than a guy like Rubio. People who rip on Exum are pretty much just ripping on him because he didn't play enough minutes. That's fine. The injury argument is legitimate in that he hasn't had time to develop and earn a bigger role. But all the other ridiculousness about him being super TO prone, being bad at finishing (clearly not true by the numbers), or any other number of hot takes are just not based in reality. He has a ton of potential.
He is absolutely a better defender and finisher than Ricky Rubio at this time. He is a much bigger threat off the dribble. He puts way more pressure on the defense in transition. But Rubio is much better orchestrating the offense in the half court, and at least during the second half of the year was a better shooter. Ricky is obvisouly the better passer, though Exum's athleticism opens up some passing options that Ricky can't get as easily.
TheStormofWar
Well-Known Member
Fair enough, but given the Favors/Gobert conundrum was solved by Favors sliding outside more and Ricky finding his shot, Exum won't serve us well orchestrating the offense unless either Gobert or Favors is off the court (assuming Favors re-signs), we sign a legit stretch 4, or Exum finds his shot. Again, if we sign X, it's for potential. I don't have an issue with that because he can D-up and is fast as well. He's a great change of pace guard and good for the locker room.
But here's where stats can be misleading. According to DRtg, DWS, and DBPM, Rubio is absolutely the superior defender. According to these same stats, Ekpe can give Gobert a run for his money. But that doesn't pass the eye test, now does it? Does Rubio D-up Harden like Exum did in the Houston series? Nope.
It's like the quote attributed to Disraeli. There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics. You can't always rely on them to tell the whole story.
This is Exum a year ago. If he's the same player, they're not going to let him walk.
It is a small sample size but its a decent chunk of games that he played well in. Its not any where close to the sample size of Naz and his 5 minutes of playing.
I am not posting these to say he is better than Rubio or anyone else. It shows that he played well when he played this year. People are saying he did nothing and his stats are impressive this year. That is incorrect, he played well this year with his minutes and stats back that up. Can he do it over a whole season? Who knows. But he showed plenty to be excited about and he showed that he has potential to be good.
I would be shocked if they let him leave. Regardless of how fans feel the Jazz FO and Snyder talk very highly of him all the time without prompt. They really like him and his potential.
Even if he isnt in our long term plan for some reason (he is but...) they would match an offer and trade him later.
The only way I see him not being brought back is if it was the only way to sign PG or some other big name FA and we couldnt figure it out another way. Or some team offered him the Max, which is not going to happen.
TheStormofWar
Well-Known Member
Therein lies the rub. He's good in limited minutes, but he's a huge injury risk (again, this isn't his fault. It just is what it is.) But if Orlando, who needs a PG, got a basketboner for Exum and gave him a large deal, does Utah match that? I doubt it. But a reasonable deal? Hell yes we do. But what's reasonable? That, I don't know.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
If he signed the QO his caphold would be basically 8-9 M I believe... not the huge caphold it is now. If you don't give him QO he's unrestricted... so that's bad.
If the Jazz play Favors or Tony Bradley at the 5, as both of them can shoot 18-footers, and they get a legit floor spacer at the 4, then Exum will have space to blow by defensive coverages. Exum's combination of length and speed enables him to get by defenders and then make plays over the top of the defense. It really changes the geometry of what the Jazz can do offensively. When he played last year, almost no one could stay in front of him. Put that on the floor with Mitchell and one other guy (like a Will Barton, maybe even Royce O'Neale), and it's very difficult to guard.
He just needs to be able to mix in enough jumpers to play off the ball and make defenders respect his jump shot.
He just needs to be able to mix in enough jumpers to play off the ball and make defenders respect his jump shot.
Last edited:
Yes, they will match it. Snyder and DL think he has a very high ceiling and gush over him a lot. I think he is Snyders favorite player and DL said losing Exum was as big of deal as losing Gobert to injury.
Unless its a really ridiculous offer. I also dont think Orlando has room to offer over the MLE unless they renounce the rights to Aaron Gordon which seems unlikely.
Quin's Murderface
Well-Known Member
Yeah I totally agree with the Stretch 4 thing. I was disappointed with Dante's shot last year. I always thought he could be a decent spot up/set shooter at least. Dante playing with the ball in his hands more eliminates some of that as he can create mismatches with his speed in PnR or iso. But he has to improve it to be a viable big minute player. At least to 35% or so. I do think that Gobert would work best with a stretch 4 anyway, and the Jazz are going to move to that as soon as it's possible.
Defensive stats are still pretty bad as I'm sure you know. They definitely say something, but just probably not who is a better defender. Offensive stats are better respected by people who are experts in that kind of thing from what I've read, but I think you make a legitimate point about sample size with Exum's numbers as far as proclaiming that he has arrived or anything like that. I don't think you can really criticize the numbers, but you can wonder if they are sustainable in a bigger role. Where I think stats can be really good is when they inform us about mistakes in what we see. I think a lot of people watch Exum's awkward looking game and don't realize how effective it often has been (again in a small sample size).
Quin's Murderface
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure I agree with him being a huge injury risk. He has had 1 knee injury and a freakish shoulder injury. Pulling his hammy a little bit doesn't count. I'd say his "potential" even extends to health. We just don't know if he'll be injury prone. He hasn't had a bunch of ticky tack injuries, just two major ones that were unrelated. The knee is more concerning to me than the shoulder.
Exum needs to shoot better. That is the main thing he needs to improve. His shot looked decent in pre season and he had confidence in it. He lost that confidence with the shoulder injury and he needs to get back confidence in his shot. I agree he does not need to be a great 3 point shooter he just needs to be able to hit open shots at a good enough clip teams wont dare him to shoot. Turning into a great shooter seems unlikely but who knows. Rubios 3 point shot was/is much uglier than Exums and he improved a lot.