2019 Trade Deadline Discussion

[LoPo]

Neither BOS nor LAL have the pieces to make it work.
BOS's $30m dudes Horford and Hayward have negative trade value. No Kyrie. No real star or top-5 pick. Only Tatum has some value but it's not enough.
LAL's youth is miserable. A dozen of them won't be enough.

On the other hand a deal centered around PHO's pick makes perfect sense for both sides.
That being said it's unlikely NOP will trade AD now. They may replace the coach and go all in for a deep postseason run and hence improve their chances of resigning AD in the offseason. If they can't then they'll start listening to offers.

AD is ready to move on. NOLA sticking with him and trying to make the playoffs while risking an injury just isn't worth the gamble. Based off the timing, it's pretty clear that AD is unhappy and likely wants the Lakers.

The Lakers don't have the best assets, but at least they can give assets. If AD came out and demanded LA, the Lakers wouldn't have to give as much due to leverage. If the Lakers were able to get AD without giving Kuzma and his bargain deal, the Lakers could become another Golden State in terms of top end talent.

 

[jjscap]

Jrue Holiday is on a fair contract until '20-21.
Another PG Coach Q is very fond of.
DL should closely watch how AD drama unfolds and perhaps wait for the offseason because I believe NOP will then trade AD away and blow the team up.

 

[candrew]

Neither BOS nor LAL have the pieces to make it work.
BOS's $30m dudes Horford and Hayward have negative trade value. No Kyrie. No real star or top-5 pick. Only Tatum has some value but it's not enough.
LAL's youth is miserable. A dozen of them won't be enough.

On the other hand a deal centered around PHO's pick makes perfect sense for both sides.
That being said it's unlikely NOP will trade AD now. They may replace the coach and go all in for a deep postseason run and hence improve their chances of resigning AD in the offseason. If they can't then they'll start listening to offers.

Boston has a ton of picks - 2 of them most likely lottery. If The Grizzlies unload Conley and/or Gasol they may have a Top 5.

Horford and their top 3 #1's for AD?

Ultimately I agree with you - don't think NOP should trade AD during the season. Although there is the reality of AD going Kawhi and turning a sprained finger into a season ending injury.

 

[LoPo]

Lets go get Jrue now... or Mirotic... or why not both?

If NOLA gets Lonzo, it seems like there is no reason to keep Jrue because Jrue is a guy who is ready to contribute now. NOLA would be wise to trade all of those guys there to help win now (Mirotic, Jrue, KCP who would be sent from LA). If I was NOLA, I would trade Ingram too. It's obvious that Lonzo, Kuzma and Ingram do not fit well together. Ingram could probably get a pretty good asset on his own.

NOLA could shelve Lonzo due to his injury, tank, use all the draft picks acquired from the AD, Jrue, Mirotic, and Ingram trades.

 

[LoPo]

Boston has a ton of picks - 2 of them most likely lottery. If The Grizzlies unload Conley and/or Gasol they may have a Top 5.

Horford and their top 3 #1's for AD?

Ultimately I agree with you - don't think NOP should trade AD during the season. Although there is the reality of AD going Kawhi and turning a sprained finger into a season ending injury.

There are multiple problems with Boston though:

#1 - unless they use Kyrie, they can't trade until the summer due to the Rose Rule. I think there is a zero chance Boston trades Kyrie now to get AD now.

#2 - Boston's Memphis pick is top 8 protected this year and top 6 protected next year. Once they blow it up by trading Conley and/or Gasol, they are going to keep that pick and maybe even next year too. Sure the unprotected 1st in 2021 still has value, but some teams aren't patient enough to wait 3 years for a pick.

#3 - Boston owns the Clippers 2019 pick only if it's outside of the lottery either this year or next. So in other words, the Clipper pick is never a lottery pick.

#4 - Boston owns the best of Sacramento or Philly's 2019 1st. This pick will be a lottery pick, but likely something out of the top 10.

So overall, the best Boston could offer is a late 2019 lottery pick (Sac), a couple non-lottery picks (LA & Boston), Brown, maybe Tatum and maybe a top 5 pick from Memphis in 2021. And they couldn't offer any of that until the summer.

 

[candrew]

There are multiple problems with Boston though:

#1 - unless they use Kyrie, they can't trade until the summer due to the Rose Rule. I think there is a zero chance Boston trades Kyrie now to get AD now.

#2 - Boston's Memphis pick is top 8 protected this year and top 6 protected next year. Once they blow it up by trading Conley and/or Gasol, they are going to keep that pick and maybe even next year too. Sure the unprotected 1st in 2021 still has value, but some teams aren't patient enough to wait 3 years for a pick.

#3 - Boston owns the Clippers 2019 pick only if it's outside of the lottery either this year or next. So in other words, the Clipper pick is never a lottery pick.

#4 - Boston owns the best of Sacramento or Philly's 2019 1st. This pick will be a lottery pick, but likely something out of the top 10.

So overall, the best Boston could offer is a late 2019 lottery pick (Sac), a couple non-lottery picks (LA & Boston), Brown, maybe Tatum and maybe a top 5 pick from Memphis in 2021. And they couldn't offer any of that until the summer.

Good post - If I'm Ainge, I throw in Brown if the picks aren't attractive enough. Tatum is untouchable.

And I do that keeping in mind that bringing AD bolsters the chance of re-upping Kyrie.

 

[framer]

If Ben Simmons and picks are on the table, that could be tempting.

I just have a feeling that Ben Simmons would be exposed as the overrated player he is if he played in the West without guys as good as Embiid, Butler and Reddick.

Whereas it is a known certainty that Kuzma, Lonzo, Ingram, and KCP are all overrated players. If Pelicans deal the Brow, he's going East.

 

[LoPo]

Good post - If I'm Ainge, I throw in Brown if the picks aren't attractive enough. Tatum is untouchable.

And I do that keeping in mind that bringing AD bolsters the chance of re-upping Kyrie.

The crazy thing is that Boston can't trade for AD until Kyrie either is traded OR decides to decline his player option for next year. So before Boston can even really target AD, they have to wait on Kyrie. It's entirely possible that Kyrie gets a major injury and decides to pick up his player option for next year. If that were to happen, Boston would have to trade Kyrie for AD and why would NOLA do that?

And without Tatum, New Orleans has to look elsewhere.

 

[LoPo]

Whereas it is a known certainty that Kuzma, Lonzo, Ingram, and KCP are all overrated players. If Pelicans deal the Brow, he's going East.

I really hope he goes East, but who is a "contender" in the East outside of Boston? If Philly won't send Simmons, no other East team has anything NOLA wants. The Bucks and Raptors can't send a pick until 2021 or later. Indiana's best player was just lost for the season. The Knicks are an injured Porzingis and their top 3 pick away from relevance.

 

[candrew]

The crazy thing is that Boston can't trade for AD until Kyrie either is traded OR decides to decline his player option for next year. So before Boston can even really target AD, they have to wait on Kyrie. It's entirely possible that Kyrie gets a major injury and decides to pick up his player option for next year. If that were to happen, Boston would have to trade Kyrie for AD and why would NOLA do that?

And without Tatum, New Orleans has to look elsewhere.

True, but barring an injury I think we can assume Kyrie will opt-out. I think his option is like 21 mil - he's sure to make more as a UFA.

Although the wild card is AD and LeBron are both with Klutch Sports, and if you believe the rumors they're orchestrating this whole thing.

AD might be set on going to LAL either way - trade or no trade to Boston.

 

[LoPo]

True, but barring an injury I think we can assume Kyrie will opt-out. I think his option is like 21 mil - he's sure to make more as a UFA.

Although the wild card is AD and LeBron are both with Klutch Sports, and if you believe the rumors they're orchestrating this whole thing.

AD might be set on going to LAL either way - trade or no trade to Boston.

That is 100% what I think.

 

[LoPo]

Okay, so please bear with me for a moment:

- So let's say NOLA knows they have to deal with Lakers because that's what AD wants.
- And let's assume that LA has to send Lonzo, Kuzma, Ingram AND picks for AD.
- And lastly, let's assume that Kuzma goes public about how he doesn't want to go to NOLA (especially with the same bums he has struggled with for 2 years).

What if we were to swoop in, send multiple first rounders and take back NOLA's worst contract (Solomon Hill) and we get Kuzma? Wouldn't Kuzma be an absolutely perfect fit here? Wouldn't he be happy long term?

 

[jjscap]

Boston has a ton of picks - 2 of them most likely lottery. If The Grizzlies unload Conley and/or Gasol they may have a Top 5.

Horford and their top 3 #1's for AD?

Ultimately I agree with you - don't think NOP should trade AD during the season. Although there is the reality of AD going Kawhi and turning a sprained finger into a season ending injury.

BOS has 4 picks this season but none of them will be top-10.

NOP will more likely go after a top-3 pick. The thing is lottery odds are crazy this season. That's another reason for them to wait until the offseason. Too much to gamble on now. Look at the odds below, 8th team might as well get the 1st pick with their 6% chance.

 

[framer]

Good post - If I'm Ainge, I throw in Brown if the picks aren't attractive enough. Tatum is untouchable.

And I do that keeping in mind that bringing AD bolsters the chance of re-upping Kyrie.

If you won't trade for AD because of Tatum, you are basketball's biggest moron,

 

[LoPo]

NOP will more likely go after a top-3 pick. The thing is lottery odds are crazy this season. That's another reason for them to wait until the offseason. Too much to gamble on now. Look at the odds below, 8th pick might as well get the 1st pick with their 6% chance.

All of the really bad teams have their own pick and AD's agent has been very clear that AD wants to be sent to a contender. NOLA's best chance for winning the lottery is actually with their own pick. With a very intentional tank, they could be in the bottom 5-7. Highly doubtful they catch the bottom 4 who have 10 or 11 wins vs NOLA's 22.

 

[LoPo]

 

[jjscap]

All of the really bad teams have their own pick and AD's agent has been very clear that AD wants to be sent to a contender. NOLA's best chance for winning the lottery is actually with their own pick. With a very intentional tank, they could be in the bottom 5-7. Highly doubtful they catch the bottom 4 who have 10 or 11 wins vs NOLA's 22.

Booker - AD - Ayton is not a contender?

 

[LoPo]

All of the really bad teams have their own pick and AD's agent has been very clear that AD wants to be sent to a contender. NOLA's best chance for winning the lottery is actually with their own pick. With a very intentional tank, they could be in the bottom 5-7. Highly doubtful they catch the bottom 4 who have 10 or 11 wins vs NOLA's 22.

I actually have to correct myself. The Knicks will be "aggressive". If the Knicks get AD, then they could convince KD this summer....

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Booker - AD - Ayton is not a contender?

Lol. No. They can't stop anybody. AD is good, but he doesn't take a team from worst in the league to title contender.

I mean, you understand that Booker and Ayton are contending for worst team in the league, right?

 

[LoPo]

Lol. No. They can't stop anybody. AD is good, but he doesn't take a team from worst in the league to title contender.

Yep. And are we expecting that Phoenix can get AD without sending Booker or Ayton?