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Wes Mantooth said:
Jesus. Luxembourg has 602,000 people. 1,605 cases of Covid.

That ratio of cases per person is nearly twice as bad as Italy’s.
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Keep in mind levels of testing skews a lot of those stats. The more you test the more people you will find. Luxembourg right now is second highest testing country in the world at around 2300 tests per 100000 people only behind Iceland. Just for comparison - the USA is at around 190 tests per 100000 and in Italy they are doing about 650 tests per 100000 people.
 
"Research suggests that the spread can be caused by asymptomatic carriers. Studies of patients from Wuhan and other Chinese cities who were diagnosed early in the outbreak suggest that asymptomatic carriers of the virus can infect those they have close contact with, such as family members."

Also read that China is not including asymptomatic persons in the count of infections they report. In other words, you test positve but show no symptoms China doesn't count you as infected. Some countries DO count positive test/asymptomatic persons.

Drawing conclusions from faulty data sets is problematic.
 
The Thriller said:
Is it just me or is the death rate ticking up? It’s .016 now.
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It's probably too early to draw conclusions based on those death numbers. A ton of sick people are not resolved yet(i.e. the illness hasn't had a chance to either go to recovery or death yet for huge majority of cases). It's possible it goes up. Think of it like this - the people that are dying now have been identified a week or two ago when the number was much smaller. The people that are being identified now are much bigger proportion of the cases(because the number goes up exponentially, until you break the exponential growth with measures or it infects a huge proportion of the population) and will be resolved in a week to several weeks time...
 
Jazzmix said:
Belgium has been in lockdown since around a week and today it's a second consecutive day with considerably less new cases. I hope it's going to be a steady trend. We are lucky here to have much higher capacity of intensive units than the european average, ironically it has been criticised before as a waste of money..
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It was premature joy.. After those two better days next one brought twice more cases and it has been increasing since. The only positive is that curve started to flatten. Experts here predict the peak to come at the beginning of April.
 
Jazzmix said:
It was premature joy.. After those two better days next one brought twice more cases and it has been increasing since. The only positive is that curve started to flatten. Experts here predict the peak to come at the beginning of April.
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Same here, after a few days of lower numbers in the teens, we have had 3 consecutive days with increases with the last 2 days being the highest numbers of new cases since the epidemic started. Our emergency task force is still saying we are just at the beginning of the curve and things are going to get much worse before they get better.

It's very weird making sense of it, because we started the state of emergency with calls for social isolation and closing of non-essential businesses pretty early(when we had only 37 confirmed cases), so it seems like we are doing relatively well flattening the curve, but it doesn't look like we are close to the peak and I have no idea what the peak would look like... We are at 331 confirmed cases now. I don't know if the early measures are working or if we are just not testing enough people. Or if it's some combination of both...
 
mellow said:
"Research suggests that the spread can be caused by asymptomatic carriers. Studies of patients from Wuhan and other Chinese cities who were diagnosed early in the outbreak suggest that asymptomatic carriers of the virus can infect those they have close contact with, such as family members."

Also read that China is not including asymptomatic persons in the count of infections they report. In other words, you test positve but show no symptoms China doesn't count you as infected. Some countries DO count positive test/asymptomatic persons.

Drawing conclusions from faulty data sets is problematic.
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There is problems with that. I wish all countries would provide accurate and consistent information. I also wish countries would properly test. I think if China had reported better and more accurate numbers early it would have made a difference for how countries reacted earlier as well.

What percentage of people are asymptomatic? I read earlier that it was less than 1% but I don't think that's accurate.
 
These numbers are gonna continue to explode. Look at Cali and Texas. With all the major cities there, you’re telling me those numbers won’t skyrocket?

This is gonna get scary bad over the next 3-4 weeks. Italy went from ~63,000 to 92,000 cases the last five days. We went from 43,000 to 123,000.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
These numbers are gonna continue to explode. Look at Cali and Texas. With all the major cities there, you’re telling me those numbers won’t skyrocket?

This is gonna get scary bad over the next 3-4 weeks. Italy went from ~63,000 to 92,000 cases the last five days. We went from 43,000 to 123,000.
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Put another way, at that rate of increase, 75 million Americans will have Covid in 30 days.
 
Red said:
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One main reason I posted anything about my very local RI setting, is because I felt the "RI uses police and the military to hunt New Yorkers seeking refuge" would spotlight civil rights issues, and was bound to generate pushback, and indeed, this was the result of Gov. Raimondo' effort to locate such New Yorkers entering RI:

 


On one hand, Singapore, northern European countries, Peru (that has controlled the spread by a very strict lockdown from the beginning) and Uruguay. On the other end, Mexico, Brasil and US...countries that downplayed the risks and lied to it's citizens.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Put another way, at that rate of increase, 75 million Americans will have Covid in 30 days.
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and the death rate right now is 0.016 percent, before major medical shortages. If it just ticks up to .02 percent, you’re talking about 1.5 million Americans dead.

wonder what that’ll do to the stock market...

Btw, flu kills about 56,000 Americans annually.
 
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