Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics

[babe]

I rarely feel glad about unnecessary blindness and heart complications being induced by a medicine that provides no benefits.

Well, I hope you never do. But from what is known, based on millions of courses of HCQ used for malaria and some other less frequent human maladies like Lupus, if you believe this is a significant concern, you are believing lies, like I said before, whatever your claimed sources.

I was glad to see the extent of HCQ prescriptions for Covid diagnosed patients because it is saving millions of lives.

 

[babe]

So, from today's stats per Worldometer…..

Today's new cases amount to only 5% of the total active cases. A few days ago we were seeing 9%, and just a few days before that, 16%. It is thought, on a little data, that walkabout carriers or active cases will infect on average 2.2 other persons during their 14 days or so of being spreaders, plus maybe 2% of infected persons becoming a sort of consistent permanent reservoir for infecting others.

These stats mean that our hiding in place, travel restrictions, and other mitigating efforts are presently working well enough that the new cases is only 1/5 of what would have been, doing nothing. And, a lot of these are cases discovered by increasing the testing rates.

That's the world look.

 

[babe]

nationally, from the Worldometer page, the USA is doing about 1% new cases against active cases. Things to be inferred from that..... spreading is going on, at worst (if we know all the active cases) at a rate of 0.01 per carrier per day, or about 0.15 per carrier/14d, which is far less that the putative 2.2. If we have 80% mild cases overall, and some kind of large fraction of those just not knowing they have it, we could guess that there might be, say, 600k folks out there somewhere with the virus, spreaders doing their thing, which would mean maybe a rate of only 0.08/d per carrier.... that would make for a guess that mitigation is working at around 97 % of perfect.

Our deaths today were also around 1.1% of the previous total deaths, meaning the exponential rate per 3d is 1.05, much less than the 2.0 which would double every three days.

Spain is still doing the 3d doubling.... testing there is on par with ours. pop stats put Spain as very old and very heavy smokers, besides the whole social culture factors.....

 

[infection]

I rarely feel glad about unnecessary blindness and heart complications being induced by a medicine that provides no benefits.

Retinopathy is a result of chronic use. Cardiac complications is a result of QT prolongation, which can predispose to certain arrhythmias, but can be monitored via telemetry in the hospital and, again, a decision that a practicing physician should make.

 

[babe]

Here's the CDC figures for the USA...…

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The chart down a few pages in the link showing new cases per day..... levels off just over 8400/d from March 20-30.... with a dip on 3/24-25..... .

 

[babe]

Retinopathy is a result of chronic use. Cardiac complications is a result of QT prolongation, which can predispose to certain arrhythmias, but can be monitored via telemetry in the hospital and, again, a decision that a practicing physician should make.

The retinopathy reflected older prescription formats no longer used, because dosages have been reduced significantly with the intent to avoid that result for decades now.....

 

[babe]

@One Brow

Here's what I call a reasonable discussion, from someone who knows something......

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/31/comparing-chloroquine-trials

I note, for your sake, that this is not the tone of NPR or other more politicized sources, and I consider this source "Establishment". And, really, detached from the reality most people live in. I mean, for Gawds sake, look at the scale of the "balanced" considerations........ where on one side there are thousands of people on death's door from whatever, and a therapeutic that has fairly remote negative consequences..... And here's an egghead who just can't say "Give it a go".

The fact is, he is aware of his professional political environment, and he is daring.... perhaps risking his career.... to give it "cautious" positive remarks.

What can drive such politics? You need to think about that.

 

[babe]

@One Brow

Here are a few more links in response to your assertion that Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is not an antiviral. There are various kinds of antivirals, classifieable by their mode of action. I am most personally familiar with ribavirin. Ribavirin is a modified nucleic acid that blocks RNA replication by irreversible binding to an essential enzyme in replication. A lot of things have been tried in that line of action, a few have been effective, some others block DNA replication. My introduction to the field was working in a research group developing new postulates for that kind of antiviral action.

But for anyone to serious say HCQ is not antiviral...… I think that is profound ignorance and determined stupidity at best, a willful intent to deny the obvious. So I think, in all fairness, with regard for any journalist or reporter or news media player who will take such a stand, the proper diagnosis is they are determined, purposeful liars.

HCQ has been observed invitro, meaning in a petri dish, to be antiviral. Such action does not involve any immune system or transport phenomena, pretty much says HCQ prevents virus replication. But this is not thought to be the most significant antiviral property of HCQ.....

Here's a case of warts, caused by HPV (a virus):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3969705/

Here's a study on HIV (a virus) and inflammatory arthritis:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8546725

yesterday I posted here another link to a different viral disease, Dengue Virus, which indluced some discussion of its mode of action.

https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/jir.2014.0038

 

[babe]

In the current obsevations….. anecdotal and observational.... not just the initial attempts at rigorous scientific studies.....

I hear reports that Covid in the alveoli generates a severe cytokine storm, and many of the deaths come from toxemia or infections spreading to vital organs. It also produces severe scarring in the lungs for survivors and lifetime effects in lung function, often requiring oxygen therapies.... you know, the little green tanks on wheels and the plastic tubing patients have to take with them whenever they go anywhere.

HCQ is thought to help in antiviral host defense via Zn transport, and some prescriptive regimens include zinc supplements. Antibiotics are also being used to help, but now I'm hearing that HCQ directly suppresses the cytokine storm itself.... though how that is seen I can't imagine. Just stopping the viral replication would soon do that....

At any rate, the anecdotal claim is that the virus is stopped, and in about six days is no longer on the scene. Chasing down the infections and repairing the damage done to vital organs is going to take a bit more. And given that many presenting patients with Covid are elderly, with weakened status on various fronts, it is clear that healing will not be 100%

 

[One Brow]

Well, I hope you never do. But from what is known, based on millions of courses of HCQ used for malaria and some other less frequent human maladies like Lupus, if you believe this is a significant concern, you are believing lies, like I said before, whatever your claimed sources.

I was glad to see the extent of HCQ prescriptions for Covid diagnosed patients because it is saving millions of lives.

Define "significant" here. Since HCQ is saving no lives for COVID-related conditions, any incidence above 0 is significant in my view.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements/hydroxychloroquine-oral-route/side-effects/drg-20064216

Incidence not known

1. Blistering, peeling, loosening of the skin
2. blurred vision or other vision changes
3. chest discomfort, pain, or tightness
4. cough or hoarseness
5. dark urine
6. decreased urination
7. defective color vision
8. diarrhea
9. difficulty breathing
10. difficulty seeing at night
11. dizziness or fainting
12. fast, pounding, uneven heartbeat
13. feeling that others are watching you or controlling your behavior
14. feeling that others can hear your thoughts
15. feeling, seeing, or hearing things that are not there
16. fever with or without chills
17. general feeling of tiredness or weakness
18. headache
19. inability to move the eyes
20. increased blinking or spasms of the eyelid
21. joint or muscle pain
22. large, hive-like swelling on the face, eyelids, lips, tongue, throat, hands, legs, feet, and sex organs
23. loss of hearing
24. lower back or side pain
25. noisy breathing
26. painful or difficult urination
27. red irritated eyes
28. red skin lesions, often with a purple center
29. severe mood or mental changes
30. sore throat sores, ulcers, or white spots on the lips or in the mouth
31. sticking out of the tongue
32. stomach pain
33. swelling of the feet or lower legs
34. swollen or painful glands
35. trouble with breathing, speaking, or swallowing
36. uncontrolled twisting movements of the neck, trunk, arms, or legs
37. unusual behavior
38. unusual bleeding or bruising
39. unusual facial expressions
40. unusual tiredness or weakness
41. yellow eyes or skin

 

[One Brow]

Retinopathy is a result of chronic use. Cardiac complications is a result of QT prolongation, which can predispose to certain arrhythmias, but can be monitored via telemetry in the hospital and, again, a decision that a practicing physician should make.

When the benefit is 0, how does that risk/benefit ratio look to you?

 

[One Brow]

Here's the CDC figures for the USA...…

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The chart down a few pages in the link showing new cases per day..... levels off just over 8400/d from March 20-30.... with a dip on 3/24-25..... .

It's showing 65,000 new cases in the past couple of days.

 

[One Brow]

The fact is, he is aware of his professional political environment, and he is daring.... perhaps risking his career.... to give it "cautious" positive remarks.

What can drive such politics? You need to think about that.

You mean, a President who only wants to hear enthusiastic positive remarks? If politics are driving this opinion at all, it's toward being positive about HCQ.

 

[One Brow]

But for anyone to serious say HCQ is not antiviral...… I think that is profound ignorance and determined stupidity at best, a willful intent to deny the obvious. So I think, in all fairness, with regard for any journalist or reporter or news media player who will take such a stand, the proper diagnosis is they are determined, purposeful liars.

Three papers on a grand total of 3 patients. If you look at enough case studies, you can make a similar claim for any substance and any disease.

 

[babe]

You mean, a President who only wants to hear enthusiastic positive remarks? If politics are driving this opinion at all, it's toward being positive about HCQ.

If you were talking about Sean Hannity, maybe you'd have a point. What I've heard the Pres say is less than that level of enthusiasm, but still very much at odds with CNN reportage.

But I was assessing the political imperatives that laced the "objective" or "balanced" opinion in the article I posted above, which drove the author to limit his assessment to "cautious" positive opinion.

If there were no claims of absolute "cure", being made, a scientific study that shows, in a six day trial, the elimination of the virus from the patient in 90% of patients being calling "hopeful" would pretty well match Trump's "enthusiasm".

It is just "prudent" to use this "hopeful" prescription. Unless you have a direct contraindication on a specific patient.

 

[babe]

Three papers on a grand total of 3 patients. If you look at enough case studies, you can make a similar claim for any substance and any disease.

And while you fiddle, people die.

 

[One Brow]

If there were no claims of absolute "cure", being made, a scientific study that shows, in a six day trial, the elimination of the virus from the patient in 90% of patients being calling "hopeful" would pretty well match Trump's "enthusiasm".

While the later, more rigorous study was negative.

 

[One Brow]

And while you fiddle, people die.

Giving them medicine that doesn't work will not prevent their deaths.

 

[babe]

Define "significant" here. Since HCQ is saving no lives for COVID-related conditions, any incidence above 0 is significant in my view.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements/hydroxychloroquine-oral-route/side-effects/drg-20064216

This reply is as obtuse as it is irrelevant. Here, the Mayo Clinic, known by the medical establishment to be one of the pillars of conventional medicine and the whole FDA/AMA/Big Pharma/Big Medical nexus of corruption and a bulwark against every creative instinct of the human species, gives a list of generic side effects to be looked for, with absolutely no reportage about actual complaints relevant to this specific drug.

Ya got nuthin here, bud.

 

[babe]

While the later, more rigorous study was negative.

Two very sketchy studies have come from China, and I linked the comparison above, and you are lying or else just too stupid to read, to say this.